The AUD/USD pair trims a part of its modest intraday gains and retreats to the lower end of the daily range during the first half of the European session. 

The AUD/USD is testing the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6829, which, once cleared, will pave the way for further upside toward the 200-day EMA at 0.6859. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at bearish territory and the EMA above could cap the AUD/USD rally, which would put into play the 0.6800 figure. Therefore, the AUD/USD downtrend is intact, and it could shift neutral if buyers reclaim the 200-day EMA.

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bearish forces have gained total control. Specifically, the MACD histogram is softening below both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is pointing upwards but remains well beneath its 50-neutral mark.

Should selling pressures intensify further, the pair could decline to retest the 200-day SMA, currently at 0.6794. Sliding beneath that zone, the bears might aim for the January low of 0.6687 before the December bottom of 0.6628 comes under examination. Even lower, further retreats could come to a halt at the 0.6546 barrier.

On the flipside, bullish actions might encounter initial resistance at the 0.6920 hurdle. Conquering this barricade, the pair could ascend towards 0.7030 or higher to challenge the recent trend rejection point of 0.7157. Should that obstacle fail, the June high of 0.7282 may appear on the radar.

Overall, AUDUSD seems to be experiencing some weakness after its medium-term bullish pattern broke to the downside. However, there is room for recovery in the case that the pair bounces off the 200-day SMA.

Aussie Dollar can bounce back from the liquidity zone

Feb 23 2023

Stop Loss -2.09%

Holding time 11d2hr

0.67467

Entry price

0.66058

Stop loss price