GBP/JPY bulls attack the previous monthly high, picking up bids around 164.80 to refresh the multi-day top, even as Japan inflation numbers crossed the downbeat expectations during early Friday. It’s worth noting that upbeat sentiment could be held responsible for the cross-currency pair’s latest run-up although the yields remain sluggish. A downward-sloping resistance line from December 13, 2022, near 164.80 by the press time, challenges immediate GBP/JPY upside.

Looking ahead, the final reading of the UK’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be important to watch for the intraday move. However, major attention should be given to the headlines surrounding the inflation data from Eurozone and the US, as well as the central bankers’ reaction to the same.

The GBP/JPY daily chart suggests the pair is testing a three-month-old resistance trendline that passes at around 164.70-90, trading at 4-week highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted bullish, suggesting the GBP/JPY outlook is upwards. The Rate of Change (RoC) jumped from a neutral stance after the GBP/JPY snapped three days of consecutive losses, erased on Thursday.

If the GBP/JPY continues its uptrend, the next resistance would be the February 27 high at 166.00. A breach of the latter will expose the December 19 daily high at 167.01, followed by the December 12 high at 169.27.

On the other hand, the GBP/JPY first support would be the psychological level at 164.00. Downside risks lie at the next support area at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 161.87, ahead of testing the 50-day EMA at 161.18.

GBPJPY to fall after a double top on lower degree trend

Mar 31 2023

Stop Loss -0.95%

Holding time 1d12hr

164.596

Entry price

166.160

Stop loss price