I am including USDCAD to end my Finlogix analyses this Monday. 

Before I share it, here’s my previous USDCAD analysis that has ended in a stop loss:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20220915/usdcad-inverted-hourly-fish-hook

It’s pretty clear that price has moved more than 200 pips since I left! It’s an up trend continuation totally invalidated what I saw at that time.

For my intraday USDCAD trade plan, I am looking at the CoCH (change of character) candle that created the narrow bearish 4H FVG for more confirmation if the price is ready to move lower more!

So far we can see another 4H FVG that contains double top candles at 1.3510 area. Price still trading under this top and above last week’s low. This is the projected range if price continues to consolidate.

I’m predicting a 60% chance that the USDCAD bulls will win the current consolidation phase challenging the potential sell zone order blocks. After that a huge and sharp drop follows targeting the opposing traders.

My sell trade setup is based on these calculations. If this plays out accordingly, the risk:reward score is 3.50 with entry point on the sell zone OB, stop loss above February 13 local high and take profit exit at the 1.618 Fib extension from that high and February 15 low.

I am looking for short term sell setups only and this is the best probable trade I can risk with. I am ignoring the buy setups. The US Dollar remains strong against Loonie.

Let’s have a look at USDCAD’s high timeframe candles:

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Green Long Upper Shadow current is a Small Red Spinning Top

Daily Candle: Friday close was a Green Long Upper Shadow current is a developing Small Red Spinning Top

The yearly and monthly candles remain bullish but the weekly and daily candles are hinting short term bearish moves. The latter statement support the trade analysis and plan for USDCAD.

Good luck on this one. Let’s see how this goes.

USDCAD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For February 19, 2024

Feb 19 2024

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