The major economic reports to keep an eye on this week are FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday), US Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Thursday).

I am speculating a more stronger US dollar after these reports come out.

My previous DXY trade plan has exited in a loss:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240214/us-dollar-dxy-index-intraday-analysis-for-february-14-2024

Re-assessing the US Dollar DXY index high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Still a Green Body with Short Head Wick

Monthly Candle: Last check was a Large Body Green Hammer current is Green Spinning Top With Long Head and Tail Wicks

Weekly Candle: Previous close was a Green Long Upper Shadow current is a Red Long Upper Shadow

Daily Candle: Yesterday’s close is a Red Body With Long Tail Wick current is a Green Hammer

The US Dollar DXY index remains bullish on according to the Yearly candle with the Monthly changed to Green Top with both long head and tail wicks suggesting equal buyers and sellers’ strength for this month.

Meanwhile, the weekly and daily candles dips have confirmed the 50% fib retracement again as support. The previous October 2023 high and December 2023 low are the reference points of this fib level.

The recent 91-day high double top candles proved to be the new resistance while the previous 82-day high double top candles failed to offer immediate support as a result these two levels will be the resistances respectively.

With few hours on the New York trading session to open, I am going to create a new trade plan.

From what I’m seeing, DXY is likely to fall after a consolidating rally, its up trend might end even the macroeconomics and geopolitics weigh in favor of the Greenback. I change to look for sell setups.

There’s still a large 4H FVG that has not been tested yet if DXY wants to go higher again or lower changing the current trend.

I will setup a short order against the intraday rally attempts with a stop loss above the 82-day supply and taking profit by attacking the 50% fib retracement of that 4H FVG.

For now this will be my playbook for the US dollar DXY index.

US Dollar DXY Index Intraday Analysis For February 21, 2024

Feb 21 2024

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