My USDCAD trade plan last week has ended in a stop loss:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240219/usdcad-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-february-19-2024

I am now 2 losses in standing. I will adjust the next trade plan based on what I see in the markets today.

There will be upcoming Canadian GDP month-over-month report tomorrow that will impact the CAD.

The aforementioned CoCH (change of character) candle along with the narrow bearish 4H FVG and sell zone OB have been completely broken and retraced to the upside. This caught my stop loss perfectly.

My 60% chance prediction that the USDCAD bulls will win the previous consolidation phase has came true! Despite of this, I will maintain my call previously that there will be a huge and sharp drop follows targeting the opposing traders.

I’m seeing some heavy resistance starting at 1.3630 level.

While DXY is facing it’s own 104.38 resistance, my US Dollar index short entry has been triggered:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240221/us-dollar-dxy-index-intraday-analysis-for-february-21-2024

This aligns my latest call to short the USDCAD again. If my DXY trade plan ends in a stop loss, so my USDCAD as well.

Re-assesing USDCAD’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Last check was a Green Shaven Bottom now a Green Body

Monthly Candle: Last check was a Green Spinning Top now a Green Body

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Small Green Spinning Top current is developing a Green Shaven Bottom with short head wick

Daily Candle: Yesterday’s close was a Small Green Spinning Top preceded by a Green Inverted Hammer current is a developing a Green Shaven Bottom

The yearly and monthly candles remain bullish. Break-out has occurred on the weekly and daily candles negating my analysis last time.

However, I will keep shorting USDCAD sharing the following entries: 

The take profit is placed to the lower level of the newly established bullish 4H FVG that is a good pullback target if USDCAD wants to go higher. The TP level is converging the nearest 50-SMA offering support.

However, the stop loss is placed just above the heavy supply zone I pointed at 1.3630 in case over-extension happens.

Currently lots of buying pressure to support the up wave if we see some consolidation through faster timeframes like 15-minutes then this trade plan activates but it needs to hit the target trying to rally re-testing the intraday swing high.

All I can see right now is there’s some buy side liquidation happening.

USDCAD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For February 28, 2024

Feb 28 2024

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