Last Friday’s trade plan has ended in a loss:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240329/sp500-intraday-analysis-for-march-29-2024

This marks my first loss on the S&P500 index.

Stay with me to the end as I share a new one.

Last week, the DXY index soared to a fresh 42-day high after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statement.

The markets are expecting another busy report week with 9 major economic releases including another speech from Powell on Thursday.

Re-assessing the S&P500’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Still a Green Body with a Bigger Body and Longer Tail Wick since last check 

Monthly Candle: Previous close is a Green Body current is developing a Small Green Inverted Hammer

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Long-Legged Green Spinning Top current is developing a Small Green Inverted Hammer

Daily Candle: Thursday close is a Green Gravestone Doji current is developing a Small Green Inverted Hammer

The index’s long term bullish price action is still maintained during the March closing.

However, both the monthly, weekly and daily candles are all exhibiting small green inverted hammer with an opening gap as well.

This gap has printed a new all time high and once this candle starts turning red, therefore there is a small to moderate chance of price correction.

The index’s value is way too extended and any time by now might commence a rally to the downside.

My previous trade plan didn’t go accordingly but has ended in a small loss.

The 1D FVG formed 2 weeks ago has held up strongly leading a fresh intraday ATH earlier.

Although still in buyer’s reach, I’m still shorting the S&P500 to the downside.

I’m still betting for a small correction at least towards the nearest 4H 50-SMA as the same profit target.

From what I’m seeing, the monthly opening gap might be retraced fully therefore I am shorting the current range with the following orders:

We can see another narrow tight range and I’m betting for a small correction in April. If goes accordingly, I will be paid handsomely with a 5.64 risk to reward ratio!

The 5240 support mentioned last Thursday’s analysis is still a good take profit target with sell side liquidity residing below it.

S&P500 Intraday Analysis For April 1, 2024

Apr 01 2024

1

1