An imminent 4H death cross to further catalyze selling pressures. Will the flipped 5000 S/R level holds?

My April 9 short trade plan has hit another take profit after a strong US March CPI release last Wednesday:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240409/sp500-intraday-analysis-for-april-9-2024

With heavy US data on Monday, the markets are expecting 2 more US major economic reports this week with a key highlight on Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday speech and Unemployment Claims on Thursday.

Volatility remains elevated as we head in to the mid week.

Re-assessing the S&P500’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Still a Green Body since last check but with a Longer Head Wick

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Red Hammer now a Red Body

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Body current is also a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick current is developing a Red Semi Long Lower Shadow

The price correction have started across the US major indices including the S&P500.

The index is trading in a downward channel with multiple lower swing highs since March 31.

These swing highs formed the channel’s resistance which we can also see stronger 4H bearish candles suggesting that the sellers are in more control.

However, Intraday’s swing low has held above the flipped S/R 5000 level.

Based on the previous up trend rally in February, this flipped S/R level was the previous resistance now acting as support.

The 4H moving averages indicate a coming death cross after a successful bear cross last week.

This may hint a further selling if the 5000 levels break down.

The current 4H candle at press time is holding up strongly. It’s an aggressive Red Dragonfly Doji and once it closes in green, price might recover so I’m not shorting the current levels to be safer.

I’m not gonna long though. For now, I’m observing if the index’s price tries to rally back at the down channel’s support trendline.

Overnight selling pressures have initially broken it down and I like one more confirmation before shorting the index.

I’m actually tempted to long the S&P500 instead but after weighing carefully the current macro-economics revolving around the US economy and the geopolitical tensions building up between Iran and Israel, equities are likely to be sold more.

Good luck and let’s see how this one goes.

All trade ideas I share are my own views and for my own trades only.

Copy trading and trading directly involve risks.

S&P500 Intraday Analysis For April 16, 2024

Apr 16 2024

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