This upcoming week is packed with potential market-moving events, with the ECB policy meeting and the latest US Jobs Report as key highlights for volatility-seeking traders. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, but will ECB President Christine Lagarde provide guidance on the timing of the next cut? 

Market consensus suggests the next rate cut could be announced at the September 12th meeting, though the October 17th meeting is now seen as more probable. The ECB's post-decision press conference will require close scrutiny.

In the US, several key job market reports – JOLTS, ADP, and initial jobless claims – will be released ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Report. Market expectations for US rate cuts have been delayed over recent months as inflation remains a concern for the Federal Reserve. Any signs of weakness in the US job market might lead to a reassessment of future US interest rate cuts.

Additionally, the Bank of Canada will announce their latest policy decision, Australian GDP data will be released, and US ISM Services data will be closely watched.

Gold appears vulnerable to a downside move. US Treasury yields rose this week due to a series of bill and bond sales, making a test of the $2,280/oz. level likely. The outcome of Friday’s US NFP report will be crucial in determining gold’s future performance.

MARKETS WEEK AHEAD: ECB RATE DECISION, US NFPs – GOLD

Jun 03 2024

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