USDCAD’s classical swing high last July 1-2 has created a perfect buy side liquidity sweep! From this idea, June 25’s lows can be broken lower.

As a result, my June 24’s short trade plan has exited in another loss after holding for 2 days and 14 hours:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240624/usdcad-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-june-24-2024

A new overall record of 2 wins and 8 losses.

There are 6 remaining high impact data releases in the US starting tonight while there are 2 in Canada both starting this coming Friday.

Re-assessing USDCAD’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Still a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick since last check

Monthly Candle: Previous close is a Green Long Upper Shadow current is a Red Shooting Star

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Long-Legged Semi Doji current is a Red Shooting Star

Daily Candle: Both previous close and current are Red Bodies with Longer Head Wicks

In today’s analysis, I’m adjusting to use the June 25 swing low to July 2 swing high move as the retracement points of view.

These retracements turned June 4’s 4H bullish FVG to a bearish OB. Plus June 7’s bearish OB continues to play out with a new 4H bearish FVG adding more selling pressures.

The July 1-2 swing high area is the sole responsible catalyst in doing so!

Last week’s red dragonfly candle ending is a frustration.

Unless the latest 4H bearish FVG above is completely retraced, then it will nullify my bearish arguments.

My defensive stop loss was immediately hit, preventing a potential big damage if only USDCAD did not perform a buy side liquidation.

If I put a higher stop, my short position could have been alive today.

Even so, I still like to open a new one now that the current retracement’s point of view’s 61.80% level is losing its grounds.

I’m targeting the potential swing lower than June 25 lows with a strict stop loss just within the bearish FVG’s reach.

Here’s the new short orders to observe:

Note: Finlogix pricing is set from the ACY Securities price feed, with liquidity being sourced by top tier banks via ACY Connect.

I don’t like the current price structure of USDCAD, it looks very bearish to me.

All trade ideas I share are my own views and for my own trades only.

USDCAD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For July 3, 2024

Jul 03 2024

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