USDCNH’s recent more pronounced selling volumes are likely to sweep its previous up wave’s starting point.

As a result, my May 30’s long trade plan has exited in loss after holding for 7 days and 22 hours:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240530/usdcnh-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-may-30-2024

The US is set to have 3 remaining high impact economic reports starting tonight while none in China.

Re-assessing USDCNH’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Last check is a Green Body with a Short Head Wick now Green Shaven Bottom

Monthly Candle: Previous close is a Red Spinning Top current is a Red Long Upper Shadow

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Long Lower Shadow current is a Red Spinning Top

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Green Body with a Longer Tail Wick current is a Red Body with a Longer Tail Wick

In today’s analysis, I will be referencing the swing low to high moves from the previous up wave last May 3 to July 3 as the retracement points of view.

USDCNH is now trading in a down wave and is hovering just a few pips above the retracement point’s 78.60% fib level.

This down wave is threatening to sweep the sell side liquidity levels that are residing below May 3’s external lows.

A weaker August trading is expected after the clear rejection at the 7.26 level yesterday.

While the overall market sentiment is a sell US dollar with incoming data tonight, I will not short the USDCNH as it’s already oversold.

Instead I will wait for the breakdown in the 78.60% fib level which can potentially lead for further sell-off targeting May 3 lows.

However, I will enter a long order plus 50-60 pips above the 1.618 bearish extension level with a stop loss set on that level only.

I will be targeting the profit exit at the 50% fib retracement.

Note: Finlogix pricing is set from the ACY Securities price feed, with liquidity being sourced by top tier banks via ACY Connect.

All trade ideas I share are my own views and for my own trades only.

USDCNH Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For August 2, 2024

Aug 02 2024

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