USDCNH can go lower once the Fed officially cuts rates in 2024’s final quarter. Current range threatens for a breakdown pushing another leg down.

As a result, my August 2’s long trade plan has exited in another loss after holding for 8 hours only:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240802/usdcnh-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-august-2-2024

A new overall record of 2 losses and no win.

The US is set to have 5 upcoming high impact economic reports this week by Thursday.

Re-assessing USDCNH’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Last check is a Green Shaven Bottom Now a Green Semi Gravestone Doji

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Red Long Upper Shadow now a Red Body with a Longer Tail Wick

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Long Lower Shadow current is a Red Body with a Longer Tail Wick

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Long Upper Shadow with a Big Body current is a Green Body with a Longer Tail Wick

As the entire global markets are eyeing the very important Fed meeting this week with a key highlight on Chair Powell’s speech, the US dollar’s back is getting heavier.

In today’s analysis, I will still be referencing the swing low to high moves from the previous up wave last May 3 to July 3 as the retracement points of view.

The down trending continues since July 3 and the current trading range is clearly far below it.

All I can see is that the down wave since the peak last July 3 is not yet finished and I’m betting a confirmation for the first and only Fed cut in 2024 pushing for another leg down soon.

Current range looks weak to me so I’m shorting right now targeting the retracement’s bearish 1.618 fib extension level that is a lower low print.

Stop loss is set to a less probable weekly high.

Note: Finlogix pricing is set from the ACY Securities price feed, with liquidity being sourced by top tier banks via ACY Connect.

We’ll be seeing moderate to high volatility price swings soon.

All trade ideas I share are my own views and for my own trades only.

USDCNH Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan for August 21, 2024

Aug 21 2024

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