The softer US CPI print has prompted a repricing of rate expectations and undercut the dollar’s recent momentum. At the same time, the Swiss franc stands to benefit from safe-haven flows as markets remain wary of unresolved trade tensions and looming tariff escalation. With US long-end yields under pressure and inflation fears easing for now, the macro environment supports further dollar weakness against low beta, defensively positioned currencies.

CHF is particularly well-positioned here, as Switzerland is less directly exposed to the US-EU tariff risks, and SNB policy has remained consistently prudent. If US inflation data continues to disappoint or if bond market volatility picks up due to poor auction results, USD/CHF could break lower in a clean, momentum-driven move.

SHORT USDCHF

Jun 11 2025