Gold has broken out to fresh record highs above $2,400/oz in response to the Israel–Iran conflict. Beyond technical breakout dynamics, there is a deep fundamental bid behind this rally, driven by safe-haven flows, inflationary concerns, and distrust in fiat currencies during wartime instability.

The longer the crisis lasts or escalates, the stronger the bid for gold. This trade captures a continuation of that momentum, supported by both fundamental demand and technical strength.

Geopolitical Instability: Military conflict in the Middle East creates an environment of fear and uncertainty. Gold thrives in this setting as a time-tested store of value.

Breakout Momentum: The rally through $2,400 marks a significant technical breakout after consolidating below record highs for weeks. These moves often attract CTA and fund flows.

Central Bank Demand: Global central banks especially in emerging markets have been accumulating gold to diversify away from USD exposure and geopolitical dependence. That tailwind is reinforced in a conflict scenario.

USD Behavior: While the USD is rising modestly in response to the risk-off tone, gold’s behavior has decoupled rallying even in the face of a stronger dollar, which reflects the depth of demand.

LONG GOLD

Jun 13 2025