The Aussie has bounced alongside other risk-sensitive currencies as oil retreated and markets priced in temporary calm in the Middle East. But this relief feels fragile. The underlying conflict remains unresolved, and any fresh escalation especially targeting Iranian oil assets could reverse this risk-on mood quickly.

AUD remains vulnerable to any return of volatility, especially if commodities spike or U.S. economic data weakens further. A soft U.S. retail sales print might initially support AUDUSD, but a mix of geopolitical stress and global growth worries could easily bring the pair back under pressure.

SHORT AUDUSD

Jun 18 2025