The U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz have reintroduced a serious supply-side risk premium into the oil market. While the Strait remains technically open, the geopolitical threat is credible and markets are already reacting. The fact that ~20% of global seaborne oil passes through Hormuz means any disruption or even heightened risk of closure will tighten supply and support prices.

Crude surged over 2.5% in early Asian trade, and any short-term pullback caused by profit-taking or intraday risk reversal offers a buying opportunity, particularly if no de-escalation signals emerge.

LONG WTI

Jun 23 2025