Europe remains structurally vulnerable to energy shocks. A surge in crude prices, especially tied to Middle East conflict, increases input costs for EU economies and fuels inflation. At the same time, growth is already fragile, limiting how much the ECB can tighten policy. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is strengthening not only due to higher yields but also as a safe haven play amid global uncertainty.

This dynamic weakens the euro both fundamentally and sentimentally. If tensions persist or escalate, expect further capital inflows into USD and pressure on EURUSD.

SELL EURUSD

Jun 23 2025