EUR/USD has regained upside momentum, supported by the relative policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. Despite softer eurozone retail data, inflation is tracking forecasts, and the ECB is in no rush to cut again before September. Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in a Fed rate cut by September, weakening USD demand.

A dip toward 1.1750 would bring price into a key support zone and offer a clean technical entry aligned with the fundamental story. If Powell confirms a dovish tone or U.S. data underwhelms midweek (ISM or JOLTS), this could trigger the next leg higher.

LONG EURUSD

Jul 01 2025