The Euro remains fundamentally supported after sticky Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, challenging the ECB’s easing trajectory. 

Meanwhile, the USD’s rally on the back of a single NFP print looks overstretched, especially given softer U.S. ISM data and weakening labor internals. 

As macro divergence narrows, EUR/USD appears poised for a corrective bounce and then a continuation of the higher move, particularly if the Fed’s dovish tone doesn’t hold up against incoming data. 

A return to the suppoert area of around 1.175  could open a path back to the 1.1850 range.

LONG EURUSD

Jul 04 2025