
Markets are positioned cautiously ahead of next week’s quarterly inflation print in Australia. However, recent commodity price stability and stickiness in service-sector inflation suggest a potential upside surprise, which would push back RBA rate cut expectations. With risk sentiment rebounding and USD facing downward pressure, the AUD stands to benefit from both domestic and global tailwinds.

The RBA minutes hinted at a more data-dependent, gradualist path shifting focus to the inflation release.

The EM Risk Appetite Index has stabilized, favoring high-beta currencies.

Global equity strength and a softer USD create supportive crosswinds.

LONG AUDUSD

Jul 23 2025