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SELL EURUSD

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🟡 Phân Tích Thị Trường Vàng Ngày 2/6/2025

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LING GBPUSD

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Copper futures in the US rose toward $5.1 per pound on Tuesday, the highest in three months, as tight supply in key exchanges magnified the impact that a weak dollar. The risk of tariffs on copper by US President Trump drove traders to move metal between exchanges and trigger supply squeezes in key storage centers. The US maintained its probe against copper imports to prelude eventual tariffs, squeezing foreign supply and maintaining the pressure on limited smelting and processing capacity. Traders moved copper out of LME warehouses and triggered an aggressive backwardation in the futures curve, driving on-warrant inventory to plunge 80% this year tom/next spreads to $40 per tonne. In the meantime, softer concerns of reciprocal tariffs by the US, lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East, expectations of stimulus by the Chinese government and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve all contributed to a softer dollar and an improved outlook for global manufacturing demand.

Copper Rises to 3-Month High

Copper futures edged lower toward $5 per pound on Tuesday but remained near three-month highs, supported by persistent supply tightness and continued flows to the US ahead of a pending tariff decision. Stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange fell again last week, dropping to 91,275 metric tons—the lowest level in nearly two years. Meanwhile, inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 19.11% to 81,550 metric tons, marking a one-month low. Since the Trump administration launched an investigation into copper imports in February, an estimated 400 kilotons have been front-loaded into the US market in anticipation of potential tariffs. This rush has intensified the supply squeeze in other key markets. In China, the world’s top copper consumer, factory activity unexpectedly expanded in June, according to the Caixin PMI. The rebound was driven by increased government support aimed at countering the economic impact of rising US tariffs.

Copper Prices Hold Firm Amid Supply Constraints

Copper futures held above $5 per pound on Monday, hovering near three-month highs amid mounting concerns over tightening global supply. London Metal Exchange inventories fell again last week, dropping to 91,275 metric tons—the lowest level in nearly two years. Similarly, data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed copper stockpiles declined by 19.11% to 81,550 metric tons, hitting a one-month low. The inventory drawdowns come as traders have been redirecting shipments toward the US to front-run potential tariffs. Since the Trump administration launched a probe into copper imports in February, an estimated 400 kilotons have been rushed into the US in anticipation of possible levies, contributing to a supply squeeze in other markets.

Copper Holds Advance on Falling Stockpiles

Copper futures rose above $5 per pound on Friday, gaining roughly 6% for the week, as traders redirected shipments toward the US to get ahead of potential tariffs, causing a supply squeeze in the global market. Since the Trump administration launched a probe into copper imports in February, around 400 kilotons have been rushed into the US to get ahead of possible levies. This diversion has tightened global supply, prompting traders to withdraw metal from LME warehouses and triggering sharp backwardation in the futures curve. On-warrant inventories have plunged 80% year-to-date, with tom/next spreads widening to $40 per tonne. Adding to the bullish sentiment are easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced fears of reciprocal tariffs, expectations of further stimulus from China, and a more dovish Federal Reserve—all supporting the outlook for global demand.

Copper Extends Rally on Tight Supply

Copper increased to a 12-week high of 5.04 USD/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper gained 6.75%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 15.84%.

Copper Hits 12-week High

Copper futures rose past the $5 per pound threshold on Thursday, testing the highest in three months as the risk of tariffs on the material by US President Trump drove traders to move metal between exchanges and trigger supply squeezes in key storage centers. The US President maintained the probe against copper imports to prelude eventual tariffs, pressuring the outlook of domestic supply due to the limited smelting and processing capacity. Consequently, traders moved copper out of LME houses and triggered an aggressive backwardation in the futures curve, driving on-warrant inventory to plunge 80% this year tom/next spreads to $40 per tonne. In the meantime, softer concerns of reciprocal tariffs by the US, lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East, expectations of stimulus by the Chinese government and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve all contributed to a softer dollar and an improved outlook for global manufacturing demand.

Copper Rises to Test 3-Month High

Copper futures climbed above $4.94 per pound on Thursday, hitting a three-week high amid tightening global inventories. Since the Trump administration launched an investigation into copper imports in February, approximately 400 kilotons have been rushed into the US in anticipation of potential tariffs. This surge has pushed US inventories to over 100 days' worth of consumption, while contributing to shortages in other markets. London Metal Exchange copper stockpiles have plunged more than 63% year-to-date, falling to just 99,000 metric tons. Despite lingering economic and policy uncertainties, Chinese copper demand has remained resilient. On the geopolitical front, sentiment was further supported by easing tensions in the Middle East, as US officials prepare to meet with Iranian counterparts next week and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding.

Copper Edges Higher as Global Inventories Fall

Copper futures held above $4.87 per pound on Wednesday, supported by a sharp decline in global inventories. London Metal Exchange copper stockpiles have dropped over 63% year-to-date, falling to just 99,000 metric tons, as traders diverted shipments to the US ahead of anticipated tariffs on copper imports—further tightening global supply. However, analysts cautioned that once the specifics of former President Trump’s proposed tariffs are finalized, US buyers—many of whom front-loaded orders earlier this year—may sharply reduce purchases, potentially weighing on near-term demand. Geopolitical risks also remained in focus. A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding despite isolated flare-ups. Still, intelligence reports indicated that recent US missile strikes only partially damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities, delaying but not dismantling its program.

Copper Holds Gains Amid Shrinking Inventories

Copper futures hovered above $4.86 per pound on Tuesday, holding onto gains from the previous session as investor sentiment improved following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The news lifted risk appetite across markets, while concerns eased over a broader geopolitical escalation after Iran’s retaliatory strike on a US base in Qatar caused no casualties and avoided disrupting the vital Strait of Hormuz. However, copper prices remained capped by growing concerns over a potential destocking cycle in the US. Analysts warned that once the specifics of Trump’s new tariffs on copper imports are finalized, US buyers—many of whom front-loaded purchases earlier this year—may significantly scale back orders, clouding the near-term demand outlook.

Copper Holds Firm as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Sentiment

Copper futures slipped to around $4.81 per pound on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session as escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment. The decline followed US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, marking a major escalation as the US joined Israel in its ongoing conflict with Iran. The move heightened fears of retaliation from Tehran, including potential disruptions to global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to geopolitical risks, copper faced downward pressure from growing concerns over a possible destocking cycle in the US. Analysts cautioned that once details of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on copper imports are finalized, US buyers—having front-loaded purchases earlier this year—may sharply cut back on orders, adding to near-term demand uncertainty.

Copper Pressured by Escalating Middle East Tensions

Copper futures declined to around $4.76 per pound on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as investors grew concerned over a potential destocking cycle in the US. Market sentiment has weakened on fears that once the specifics of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs are confirmed, US firms may sharply reduce imports after front-loading purchases earlier this year—driving global copper inventories down nearly 80% year-to-date. Adding to the bearish tone, reports confirmed the discovery of one of the largest copper, gold, and silver deposits in the past 30 years in Argentina, with an estimated 13.2 million tons of copper and over 80 million ounces of combined gold and silver. Geopolitical tensions further weighed on sentiment, as the Israel-Iran conflict escalated and reports suggested the US may be preparing for a potential strike on Iran.

Copper Falls on US Destocking Concerns

Copper futures eased to around $4.82 per pound on Thursday, continuing to trade within a narrow range for the past two weeks as markets balanced tightening supply against the risk of a price correction. Available inventories have plunged 80% this year, partly driven by a surge in US imports ahead of anticipated tariffs. However, analysts caution that once tariff details are confirmed, the front-loading of imports could reverse, triggering a prolonged destocking cycle in the US. Adding to the cautious tone, geopolitical tensions remained elevated as the Israel-Iran conflict intensified, with reports suggesting the US may be preparing for a potential strike on Iran. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and maintained a cautious outlook, warning that President Trump’s tariffs could reignite inflation and complicate the path forward for monetary policy.

Copper Trades Sideways Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Copper futures rose above $4.80 per pound on Wednesday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses as investors positioned ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, market focus remains on its forward guidance amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and geopolitical risks. Expectations for additional Fed rate cuts this year have been tempered due to persistent trade tensions and renewed inflation concerns, particularly with oil prices trending higher. On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump escalated tensions with Iran, demanding its “unconditional surrender” and threatening a strike against Supreme Leader Khamenei. Meanwhile, a Westpac economist suggested that tight copper market conditions may ease in the near term, hinting at the possibility of a price correction. Analysts also warned that any formal announcement of US tariffs on copper could trigger a "sell-the-news" reaction in the market.

Copper Edges Higher as Fed Decision Eyed

Copper futures hovered around $4.81 per pound on Tuesday, showing little movement as traders remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, markets are focused on any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the remainder of the year. Investor sentiment has been tempered by trade-related uncertainties and renewed inflation concerns, particularly amid rising oil prices. Bets on further Fed rate cuts have been scaled back as a result. On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump called for the full evacuation of Tehran amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes and left the G7 summit in Canada early to monitor the situation, adding to global market caution. Meanwhile, a Westpac economist noted that tight copper market conditions may ease in the near term, suggesting a potential correction in prices—even in the event of new US tariffs on the metal.

Copper Muted as Traders Await Fed Decision

Copper futures climbed above $4.75 per pound on Monday, recovering some losses from the prior session as broader market sentiment steadied despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. The conflict between Israel and Iran continued over the weekend, with both nations striking each other’s energy infrastructure, pushing oil prices higher and reinforcing inflationary concerns. The developments are expected to keep the Federal Reserve cautious, with the central bank widely anticipated to hold rates steady on Wednesday. Markets also currently see no likelihood of a rate cut in July. In China—the world’s largest copper consumer—recent data painted a mixed economic picture. Retail sales in May exceeded expectations, while industrial production came in below forecasts, suggesting uneven momentum in the post-pandemic recovery.

Copper Prices Rise as Market Sentiment Stabilizes

Copper futures dropped about 1% to below $4.80 per pound on Friday and were on track to end the week lower, as heightened geopolitical tensions and mounting economic uncertainty triggered a broad risk-off shift in global markets. The decline followed Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran, targeting its nuclear facilities and prompting immediate retaliation from Tehran via drone attacks. The rapid escalation raised fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, weighing heavily on investor sentiment. Adding to the bearish tone, US President Donald Trump renewed threats of unilateral tariffs to pressure trade partners, further clouding the global demand outlook. Meanwhile, concerns over weakening demand from top consumer China continued to mount. Domestic smelters have increasingly turned to exports, indicating oversupply and sluggish local consumption.

Copper Falls on Risk-Off Sentiment

Copper futures held near $4.80 per pound on Thursday, after falling nearly 2% in the previous session, as mounting concerns over weakening demand in China, the world’s top consumer, continued to weigh on sentiment. Domestic smelters in China are increasingly turning to exports to offload surplus copper, highlighting softening local consumption. Meanwhile, LME copper inventories are trending lower, with notable volumes being shipped to the US in anticipation of potential import tariffs. On the trade front, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose unilateral tariffs on trading partners within two weeks to secure better trade deals. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the administration may extend the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries showing “good faith” in negotiations. Market optimism from earlier progress in US-China trade talks has also started to fade, despite Trump’s assertion that a deal with Beijing is “done.”

Copper Holds Decline on China Demand Worries

Copper futures held near $4.90 per pound on Wednesday, trading in a narrow range as markets digested the outcome of US–China trade talks held in London. After two days of negotiations, both countries agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and advance commitments made during a recent call between Presidents Trump and Xi. As part of the deal, Beijing is expected to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, while Washington may ease limitations on sales of advanced technology to China—moves that could ease geopolitical tensions and stabilize demand prospects for industrial metals. On the supply side, LME copper inventories continue to decline, with significant volumes being shipped to the US in anticipation of potential import tariffs. However, signs of softness in China’s copper market are emerging, as domestic smelters increasingly look to export surplus supply amid weakening local demand.

Copper Holds Steady After US-China Trade Talks

Copper futures fell about 1% to below $4.85 per pound on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session as weak industrial demand from top consumer China weighed on import volumes. Recent data also pointed to persistent deflationary pressure in China, as well as softer-than-expected export growth caused by the ongoing trade war with the US. Investors are closely watching trade negotiations between US and Chinese officials in London, where discussions began Monday over rare earth shipments and the possible easing of export restrictions. Additional talks are expected to continue Tuesday. Despite the short-term dip, copper inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses remain on a downward trend, indicating steady demand from global manufacturing hubs. However, analysts warn that elevated prices could start to suppress consumption, increasing the likelihood of a near-term correction in the market.

Copper Falls on Soft China Demand

Copper futures climbed past $4.90 per pound on Monday, the highest in ten weeks, amid renewed optimism over US-China trade talks. Officials from both countries are meeting in London following a recent call between Presidents Trump and Xi, raising hopes of easing tensions that could support industrial demand. Prices were also boosted by supply concerns, as disruptions at major copper mines in South America and Africa heightened fears of tighter global output. Adding to the uncertainty, President Trump signed an executive order doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, sparking speculation that copper might be targeted next. Meanwhile, copper inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses continue to decline, reflecting strong demand from manufacturing hubs. However, some analysts cautioned that high prices could begin to dampen consumption, raising the risk of a short-term correction.

Copper Hits 10-Week High

Copper futures held steady around $4.83 per pound on Monday, following a week of heightened volatility fueled by supply disruptions and concerns over potential US tariffs. Last week, copper prices surged by as much as 8% amid production setbacks at major mining operations in South America and Africa, which stoked fears of tighter global supply. Sentiment was further unsettled after President Donald Trump signed an executive order doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, prompting speculation that copper could be next, as the US continues its investigation into copper imports. Adding to the bullish backdrop, inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses have been steadily declining, signaling robust demand from key industrial centers. However, some analysts warned that elevated prices could begin to weigh on consumption, potentially triggering a market correction in the near term.

Copper Prices Stabilize After Turbulent Week

Copper is down by 2.03%

Copper futures held above $4.90 per pound on Friday and were on track to gain more than 5% for the week, driven by ongoing supply disruptions and lingering fears over possible US tariffs. Production setbacks at Teck Resources’ operations in Chile are expected to persist for several months, while disruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo have further tightened global supply. Adding to the bullish momentum, copper inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses have been steadily declining, reflecting strong demand from key manufacturing hubs. Meanwhile, investor anxiety increased after President Donald Trump signed an executive order doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, fueling speculation that copper could be the next target. The US is currently conducting an investigation into copper imports, adding further uncertainty to the market outlook.

Copper Set for Strong Weekly Gain

Copper futures held near $4.90 per pound on Thursday,  remaining up nearly 5% so far this week, as persistent supply-side disruptions and rising trade tensions fueled bullish sentiment. Production setbacks at Teck Resources' operations in Chile are expected to last for several months, while mining activity at the Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo has also been disrupted—tightening global supply. Meanwhile, investor anxiety grew after President Trump signed an executive order doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, sparking speculation that copper could be next. The US is currently conducting an investigation into copper imports, adding to uncertainty. However, upside momentum was tempered by weaker-than-expected manufacturing and services data from China, the world’s top copper consumer, raising concerns about demand softness.

Copper Holds Advance on Supply Concerns

Copper futures climbed back above $4.85 per pound on Wednesday, recovering from losses in the previous session as tariff concerns resurfaced. Investors grew increasingly uneasy ahead of President Donald Trump’s June 4 deadline to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, fueling speculation that copper could be the next target amid an ongoing US investigation into copper imports. The rebound followed a sharp selloff on Tuesday, driven by renewed concerns over weakening demand. A private survey showed China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in May, hitting its lowest level in over two years. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which tends to reflect smaller, export-focused firms, suggested that Chinese companies remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding US trade policy—despite a 90-day pause on some tariff measures.

Copper Rebounds on Tariff Fears

Copper is down by 4.76%

Copper futures dropped more than 2% to around $4.70 per pound on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session, as weaker-than-expected economic data from China—the world’s largest consumer of the metal—dampened its demand outlooks. A private survey revealed that China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in May, hitting its lowest level in over two years. The data highlighted growing pressure from US tariffs, with new export orders declining at a faster pace. The figures echoed Saturday’s official PMI release, which also showed factory activity shrinking for a second consecutive month. The pullback in copper prices comes after a sharp 5% surge on Monday, driven by fears that copper could be targeted next in escalating trade tensions. US President Donald Trump’s threat to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, along with an ongoing US investigation into copper imports, fueled market speculation.

Copper Tumbles as China Factory Data Disappoints

Copper futures jumped nearly 5% to around $4.90 per pound on Monday, approaching two-month highs as investors braced for the possibility of US tariffs on copper imports. The rally followed President Donald Trump’s announcement late Friday that the US will double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% starting June 4, intensifying trade tensions with key partners. The European Union criticized the move, warning it undermines efforts to reach a “negotiated solution” in the ongoing trade dispute. The escalation has fueled speculation that copper could be next, especially amid an ongoing US investigation into copper imports. US copper prices are now trading at more than a 10% premium to London prices, as traders price in the risk of new duties. Trump previously launched a probe aimed at protecting the domestic copper industry and promoting the onshoring of smelters.

Copper Prices Surge on Tariff Fears

Copper increased to a 4-week high of 4.86 USD/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper gained 4.42%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 3.99%.

Copper Hits 4-week High

Copper is down by 10.4%

Copper decreased to a 7-week low of 4.23 USD/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper lost 3.56%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.15%.

Copper Hits 7-week Low

Copper futures in the US fell toward $4.65 per pound from the four-week high of $4.82 touched May 23rd, amid risks of slower demand and evidence of fresh supply flows to North America. The International Copper Study Group noted that the copper market was in a 289,000 ton surplus in the first quarter, widening from 268,000 tons in the previous year amid ample investment in South American mines. In the meantime, the backwardation for LME futures indicated tight physical supply in the near-term,  as metal has been sent to the US to undercut potential tariff announcements by US President Trump. Trump had previously started a probe against copper imports to support the domestic industry, aiming to onshore more smelters. Still, signals of higher data center expenditure by tech companies underpinned long-term buying, aligned with the metals need in other electrification technologies.

Copper Extends Pullback from 4-Week High

Copper futures hovered around $4.71 per pound on Wednesday, stabilizing after a nearly 2% drop in the previous session. The decline was driven by a stronger US dollar, buoyed by improving economic sentiment and cautious signals from the Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday that interest rates should remain unchanged until there is greater clarity on how elevated tariffs could affect inflation, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged policy pause and lending further support to the dollar. On the trade front, market sentiment improved after President Donald Trump agreed to delay a planned 50% tariff on the European Union, easing fears of an imminent escalation in global trade tensions. Despite short-term pressure, analysts remain bullish on copper’s long-term outlook, citing structural supply constraints and surging demand from the global push toward electrification and renewable energy technologies.

Copper Holds Losses as Dollar Strengthens

Copper futures fell over 1% to below $4.75 per pound on Tuesday, pulling back from four-week highs as risk-off sentiment gripped markets amid global economic and trade uncertainties. Investors turned cautious ahead of US Senate debates on President Trump’s expansive tax and spending bill, which is expected to significantly increase the national debt. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump recently delayed a planned 50% tariff on European Union imports to July 9, just days after initially announcing the measure would take effect on June 1. Meanwhile, China and the EU are deepening trade ties in response to rising US protectionism, with negotiations set to resume early next month. On the supply side, the International Copper Study Group recently doubled its forecast for a 2025 market surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes, citing robust ore production across South America.

Copper Prices Retreat on Risk-Off Sentiment

Copper futures remained above $4.80 per pound on Monday, holding near their highest levels in four weeks after surging nearly 4% in the previous session. The rally was supported by a weakening US dollar, which continued to slide amid investor concerns over President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies that have dented confidence in US assets. Trump recently threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union, only to delay the move shortly after. He also warned of a potential 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US that are not domestically manufactured, adding to broader trade policy uncertainty. Despite the recent price strength, investors remained cautious amid signs of ample supply. The International Copper Study Group recently doubled its forecast for this year’s surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes, citing strong ore output from South America.

Copper Holds Near 4-Week High Amid Weaker Dollar

Copper futures in the US rose toward the $4.7 per pound mark on Friday, lifted by the continued decline of the US dollar as markets assessed the impact of economic support on base metal demand. The PBoC cut key lending and liquidity rates shortly after credit data indicated that the issuance of government bonds increased in April, extending signals that Beijing would continue to support factory activity. Still, ample ore output from South America drove the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove foreign traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after President Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the sharp increase in US copper inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks, narrowing the spread between US and London copper futures.

Copper Rebounds on Volatile Week

Copper futures in the US dropped to below $4.6 per pound on Thursday, tracking other base metals as risks to manufacturing demand amplified the impact of ample copper supply. Industrial inputs pulled back as bond yields surged after the Federal government got closer to passing a bill that would increase its budget deficit, shortly after rating agencies warned that US debt is on an unsustainable widening path. In the meantime, ample ore output from South America drove the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove foreign traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the sharp increase in US copper inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks, narrowing the spread between US and London copper futures.

Copper Declines Further

Copper futures climbed above $4.65 per pound on Thursday, extending gains for the week as the US dollar weakened, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to foreign buyers. The dollar came under pressure amid mounting concerns over the US fiscal outlook, with President Donald Trump’s proposed budget plan projected to add more than $3 trillion to the national debt. In supportive news for demand, the People’s Bank of China—representing the world’s top copper consumer—lowered key lending and liquidity rates earlier this week in an effort to bolster economic growth and offset trade-related headwinds. However, the rally was capped by signs of rising supply. Increased copper ore output from South America raised the risk of a broader surplus in 2025, prompting traders to unwind bullish bets on US copper futures. Those positions had largely been built in anticipation of potential tariffs following Trump’s announcement of a probe into copper imports.

Copper Prices Rise on Weaker Dollar

Copper futures in the US were near $4.65 per pound on Wednesday, holding the rebound so far this week as stimulus from China and a weaker dollar momentarily offset risks to manufacturing demand and ample supply of copper in North America. The PBoC cut key lending and liquidity rates shortly after credit data indicated that the issuance of government bonds increased in April, extending signals that Beijing would continue to support factory activity. Still, increasing supply of copper to the US tamed the rebound. Strong ore output from South America increased risks of a wider surplus this year and drove traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the rise in domestic copper inventories and the pullback in LME inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks, narrowing the spread between US and London copper futures.

Copper Extends Upswing

Copper futures in the US fell to below $4.58 per pound on Tuesday, extending the pullback from previous week as the ample supply of metal in North America erased the metal's premium in US commodity markets. Strong ore output from South America drove the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove foreign traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the sharp increase in domestic copper inventories and the pullback in LME inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks, narrowing the spread between US and London copper futures. The White House recently made moves to strike trade deals with major trading partners, but the probe for the Department of Commerce to place tariffs on copper remained open.

Copper Holds Recent Pullback

Copper futures in the US remained below the $4.6 per pound on Monday, holding the pullback from the previous week and underperforming other base metals as the ample supply of physical copper to the US erased the metal's premium in North America. Ample ore output from South America drove the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove foreign traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the sharp increase in US copper inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks, narrowing the spread between US and London copper futures. The White House recently made moves to strike trade deals with major trading partners, but the probe for the Department of Commerce to place tariffs on copper remained open.

Copper Holds Recent Underperforance

Copper is down by 2%

Copper futures edged down to around $4.62 per pound on Friday, ending a volatile week on a sour note amid fading optimism over the US-China trade truce. While the initial agreement to reduce tariffs for 90 days provided some support, analysts warned that the absence of a long-term deal continues to cloud the global economic outlook. US officials have also doubled down on efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese imports, raising concerns over prolonged supply chain disruptions. Adding to the pressure, the International Copper Study Group doubled its global surplus forecast for 2025 to nearly 300,000 tonnes, citing a combination of rising production and softening demand. The group noted that uncertainty in global trade policy has prompted a downward revision in copper usage growth compared to its September 2024 projections.

Copper Remains Under Pressure

Copper futures fell to around $4.57 per pound on Thursday, extending losses for a second session as global trade uncertainties continued to pressure sentiment. While a 90-day tariff reduction deal between the US and China marked a step toward de-escalation, analysts cautioned that the absence of a long-term agreement clouds the broader economic outlook. US policymakers have also reiterated their aim to reduce reliance on Chinese imports, fueling concerns about sustained disruption in global supply chains. Adding to the bearish tone, the International Copper Study Group doubled its 2025 global surplus forecast to nearly 300,000 tonnes, citing both rising production and weakened demand expectations. The group added: “In view of uncertainty surrounding international trade policy that is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, usage growth rates have been revised down compared to the group’s September 2024 forecasts.”

Copper Prices Decline Amid Trade Uncertainty

Copper futures steadied around $4.60 per pound on Tuesday, following a volatile start to the week as investors assessed the broader economic implications of the temporary US-China trade agreement. The deal, reached during weekend talks in Switzerland, saw Washington and Beijing agree to reduce tariffs to 30% and 10% respectively for a 90-day period, easing trade tensions but leaving uncertainty about what comes next. Despite the truce offering near-term support, concerns over oversupply persist. Ample ore production from South America has exacerbated the market’s surplus outlook, with the International Copper Study Group recently doubling its 2024 surplus forecast to nearly 300,000 tonnes. These growing risks of a supply glut prompted many foreign traders to unwind long positions in US copper futures—positions that had largely been initiated following President Trump’s announcement of a probe into potential copper import tariffs.

Copper Stabilizes as Traders Weigh US-China Truce

Copper futures in the US were close to $4.6 per tonne, holding the losses from the previous week and significantly underperforming other base metals as ample supply outweighed optimistic demand from de-escalating global trade tensions. The US and China agreed to suspend their tariffs against each other for 90 days, easing concerns that their trade war would hamper global manufacturing. Still, ample ore output from South America amplified the backdrop of oversupply, with the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove foreign traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the sharp increase in US copper inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks, narrowing the spread between US and London copper futures.

US Copper Eases to $4.6

Copper futures climbed nearly 1% to around $4.65 per pound on Monday, building on gains from the previous session as easing US-China trade tensions lifted risk sentiment across global markets. Over the weekend, trade representatives from both countries met in Switzerland and reported substantial progress in negotiations. A joint statement is expected later today, potentially outlining initial agreements that may include tariff reductions. Copper prices had come under pressure in April amid heightened fears of a global economic slowdown triggered by sweeping US tariffs. At the same time, robust ore production from South America added to concerns of oversupply. The International Copper Study Group recently doubled its forecast for this year’s surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes, further weighing on sentiment.

Copper Gains on US-China Trade Deal Hopes

Copper decreased to a 4-week low of 4.46 USD/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper gained 2.35%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 4.29%.

Copper Hits 4-week Low

Copper futures in the US fell to $4.55 per pound on Thursday, extending its volatile momentum to a near one-month low and underperforming other base metals as weaker global demand coincided with increasing domestic supply. Manufacturing PMIs in China, the US, and Europe all reflected contracting factory activity in manufacturing hubs, limiting the outlook on demand for base metals. In the meantime, ample ore output from South America amplified the backdrop of oversupply, with the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove Chinese traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the sharp increase in US copper inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks.

Copper Pulls Back to 1-Month Low

Copper futures rose above $4.60 per pound on Thursday, recouping some losses from the previous session as signs of robust demand in China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal, boosted market sentiment. Analysts pointed to strong procurement activity from State Grid Corp of China, which has driven increased orders among wire and cable manufacturers. Additional support came from data showing that home appliance sales in China surged nearly 16% during the five-day holiday at the start of May, signaling healthy consumer demand. Meanwhile, representatives from the US and China are set to meet in Switzerland this weekend to discuss trade issues, raising optimism around a potential deal. Elsewhere, China's central bank reinforced stimulus momentum earlier this week by announcing a 10 basis point cut to key lending rates and a 50 basis point reduction in banks’ reserve requirement ratio, further supporting the demand outlook.

Copper Rises on Signs of Robust Demand

Copper futures fell over 1% to below $4.70 per pound on Wednesday, reversing the prior session’s gains as investors assessed evolving global trade dynamics. In the latest developments, reports emerged that  Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Switzerland later this week to discuss trade matters, boosting hopes for a potential start to tariff negotiations. Copper prices also declined even after China’s central bank announced plans to lower key policy rates amid efforts to support growth in the face of US tariffs. Moreover, the metal came under pressure from disappointing manufacturing PMI reports in major economies, signaling weaker demand. Adding to the downside, copper inventories surged in North American warehouses as US manufacturers ramped up stockpiling in anticipation of possible new tariffs, further weighing on prices.

Copper Falls as Markets Weigh Trade Developments

Copper futures in the United States were below $4.65 per pound on Wednesday, holding most of the losses from the prior week amid evidence of weaker global demand and the large flow of copper into North American warehouses. Manufacturing PMIs in China, the US, and Europe all reflected contracting factory activity in manufacturing hubs, limiting the outlook on demand for base metals. In the meantime, ample ore output from South America amplified the backdrop of oversupply, with the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove Chinese traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports. This coincided with the sharp increase in US copper inventories as metal flowed back into the United States for factories to avoid shield themselves from levy risks.

Copper Holds Recent Losses

Copper futures rose 1% to around $4.70 per pound on Tuesday, building on recent gains on hopes that the US and China could start trade negotiations soon amid efforts to ease tariff tensions. In the latest developments, US President Donald Trump said that he has no plans to speak with President Xi Jinping this week, although he indicated willingness to lower the hefty 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods. Last week, China signaled a potential willingness to restart trade negotiations but emphasized that Washington must first lift all unilateral tariffs as a show of good faith. Investors are also closely watching developments on other potential US trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, which could shape broader market dynamics. In addition to trade-related optimism, copper prices received further support from falling inventories in China, signaling tighter supply conditions in one of the world’s largest consumers of the metal.

Copper Rises on US-China Trade Optimism

Copper futures climbed 1% to around $4.69 per pound on Monday, marking a third consecutive session of gains as the dollar weakened on lingering uncertainty about US-China trade relations. President Donald Trump stated he has no plans to speak with his Chinese counterpart this week, though he signaled a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports to encourage trade. China indicated last week it may consider starting trade negotiations but stressed that Washington must first remove all unilateral tariffs to demonstrate sincerity. Investors are also awaiting further developments on potential US trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, which could influence broader market sentiment. Adding to copper’s upward momentum, a stronger-than-expected US jobs report for April helped ease fears of a tariff-induced slowdown, reinforcing demand expectations for industrial metals.

Copper Climbs Higher on Weaker Dollar

Copper futures rose 1% to around $4.63 per pound on Friday, recouping some losses from earlier in the week amid signs of improving US-China trade relations. China signalled openness to engage in trade talks with the US, with a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry saying that US officials reached out multiple times through relevant channels to start tariff negotiations. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump also hinted at potential trade agreements with India, Japan and South Korea, while expressing confidence in reaching a deal with China. Despite Friday’s recovery, copper remained down over 3% for the week, pressured by a string of weak U.S. economic data that fueled recession concerns. Moreover, lackluster manufacturing activity in China and other major economies continued to weigh on the demand outlook for industrial metals.

Copper Rises on US-China Progress

Copper futures stabilized around $4.57 per pound on Thursday after a sharp drop in the previous session, as signs of progress in trade negotiations that lessens the risk of a global economic slowdown lifted market sentiment. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump hinted at potential trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, and expressed confidence in a possible deal with China. Meanwhile, copper tumbled more than 5% on Wednesday as disappointing US GDP data and weakening Chinese manufacturing activity stoked recession fears. The US economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% on an annualized basis in the first quarter—its first negative growth in three years. The NBS manufacturing PMI in China also unexpectedly sank to a 16-month low as export orders plunged the most since 2022.

Copper Stabilizes on Trade Deal Hopes

Copper futures sank to $4.55 per pound on Wednesday from four-week highs of $4.9 earlier in the week as low demand and ample supply were magnified by the unwinding of arbitrage traders in China. The NBS manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly sank to a 16-month low as export orders plunged the most since 2022. This reflected US consumers' reluctance to maintain supply chains after President Trump escalated tariffs on China to 145% on top of previous levies. Exports of goods had been a relief for Chinese manufacturers and copper smelters, as poor domestic demand drove firms to offload their goods on foreign markets. Ample ore output from South America amplified the backdrop of oversupply, with the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove Chinese traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports.

Copper Extends Plunge

Copper futures sank to $4.6 per pound on Wednesday after testing four-week highs of $4.9 earlier in the week, as the threat of tariffs by the US already hit global manufacturing demand. The official manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly sank to a 16-month low in April as export orders for the sector plunged the most since 2022, reflecting US consumers' reluctance to maintain supply chains after President Trump escalated tariffs on China to 245%. Exports of goods had been a relief for Chinese manufacturers and copper smelters, as poor domestic demand drove firms to offload their goods on foreign markets. Still, further declines were capped by supply worries stateside. Trump launched a probe to tariff copper imports, which would stress the limited smelting capacity and raise bidding competitions. The threat widened the premium of copper futures in the US against comparable contracts in the LME, reigniting the surge in the metric after its volatility earlier in April.

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Amie Nguyen