US heating oil futures dropped toward $3.95 per gallon on Wednesday as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict combined with a surprise build in domestic inventories to pressure energy markets. Distillate stocks including diesel and heating oil rose by 3.03 million barrels in the week ended March 20th defying analyst expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw and marking a sharp reversal from the previous week's decline. This inventory surge occurred alongside a 6.9 million-barrel increase in US crude stockpiles which surpassed forecasts and signaled a fifth consecutive weekly build. While the US reportedly delivered a 15-point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan Tehran ruled out ceasefire talks despite allowing restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Although energy markets remain volatile due to fuel hoarding in Asia the pullback in benchmark crude has provided a temporary ceiling for heating oil prices which remain up 50% for the month.

Heating Oil Sustains Sharp Losses

Brent crude oil futures dropped more than 6% to $98 per barrel on Wednesday as US diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran gained traction, overshadowing reports of additional troop deployments and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US reportedly drafted a 15-point plan delivered to Iran via Pakistan to help resolve the conflict, while around 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division were deployed to the region to support security at the vital waterway. Iran signaled little willingness to compromise, firing missiles at Israel and ruling out ceasefire talks, while allowing some foreign ships to transit the strait under restrictions. The crisis has intensified global energy pressures, with Chevron warning of a potential California fuel crisis, hundreds of fuel shortages reported in Australia, the Philippines declaring a national energy emergency, and Asian nations reportedly hoarding jet fuel.

Brent Crude Oil Falls on US Diplomatic Push

WTI crude oil futures dropped more than 6% to $86.8 per barrel on Wednesday as US diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran gained traction, overshadowing reports of additional troop deployments and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US reportedly drafted a 15-point plan delivered to Iran via Pakistan to help resolve the conflict, while around 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division were deployed to the region to support security at the vital waterway. Iran signaled little willingness to compromise, firing missiles at Israel and ruling out ceasefire talks, while allowing some foreign ships to transit the strait under restrictions. The crisis has intensified global energy pressures, with Chevron warning of a potential California fuel crisis, hundreds of fuel shortages reported in Australia, the Philippines declaring a national energy emergency, and Asian nations reportedly hoarding jet fuel.

Oil Falls on US Diplomatic Push

Aluminum futures in the UK held below $3,250 per tonne, pulling back from a near four-year peak reached on March 12th as traders assess supply developments and demand prospects. Production has risen in some regions, with Alvance British Aluminium boosting output at its Lochaber smelter by about 10% following US tariff changes. Global inventories are now above 1.3 million tons, the highest since 2020, underscoring ample supply. On the demand side, China’s imports have fallen despite a 3% increase in domestic production during the first two months of the year. Still, the downside for prices remains limited due to supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East, a region responsible for around 9% of global supply. Bahrain’s Alba, the world’s largest single-site aluminum producer, shutdown 19% of its 1.6 million tonne-a-year production capacity while Qatalum reduced operations. Adding further uncertainty, Guinea is actively considering introducing bauxite export quotas.

Aluminum Retreats from Near 4-Year High

Nickel futures rose to around $17,300 per tonne, rebounding from an over one-month low, amid renewed hopes for a temporary de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. The US proposed a one-month ceasefire to Iran, boosting risk sentiment and triggering short-term gains in industrial metals markets. On the supply front, Nickel Industries received approval for 14.3 million wet metric tonnes of 2026 nickel ore sales in Indonesia, providing clarity for both domestic and export supply, underpinning futures prices. Meanwhile, the market remains cautious over potential windfall taxes on nickel in Indonesia, which could affect output and costs. Chinese liquidity support helped bolster sentiment, as the People’s Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility operation. Overall, nickel remains in a sensitive range, with prices fluctuating amid supply reassurances and lingering geopolitical risks.

Nickel Futures Rise from Over 1-Month Low

European natural gas futures fell more than 6% to below €51 per MWh on Wednesday, extending their retreat from an over three-year high on prospects of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East that could ease supply disruptions. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the US was making progress in negotiations with Iran and had sent a 15-point settlement proposal aimed at ending the war. However, some analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of a swift resolution, expecting markets to stay volatile. The war, now in its fourth week, has blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off around 20% of global LNG flows, while the largest LNG plant in Qatar remains offline, with about 17% of its capacity are damaged. Shell’s CEO has warned that Europe could face energy shortages as early as April if the conflict continues.

TTF Prices Drop Over 6%

Steel rebar futures fell to around CNY 3,130 per ton, pulling back from recent highs as China’s key steelmaking hub of Tangshan activated a level-two emergency response to heavy air pollution, raising concerns over potential output curbs and tighter environmental inspections. Industry data also showed Chinese steel production declined 3.6% to 76.1 million tons in February, while global output fell 2.2% to 141.8 million tons. During the annual parliamentary sessions in Beijing earlier this month, authorities reaffirmed their commitment to reducing overcapacity in the steel sector amid weakening demand. China’s steel industry continues to face structural headwinds as the economy matures, with softer construction activity further weighed down by the prolonged property downturn. Total output dropped below 1 billion tons last year for the first time since 2019.

Steel Falls on Potential Output Curbs

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 810 per ton, pulling back from more than one-year highs as China’s key steelmaking hub of Tangshan activated a level-two emergency response to heavy air pollution, raising concerns over potential production cuts and stricter environmental inspections. Industry data also showed Chinese steel output declined 3.6% to 76.1 million tons in February, while global production dropped 2.2% to 141.8 million tons. During the annual parliamentary sessions in Beijing earlier this month, authorities reaffirmed their commitment to curb overcapacity in the steel sector amid weakening demand. Meanwhile, weather disruptions along Australia’s northeast coast heightened supply risks, with the storm prompting evacuations at Port Hedland, the world’s largest iron ore export hub.

Iron Ore Falls on China Steel Curbs

Zinc futures held below $3,100 per tonne, close to their lowest levels since December, pressured by growing inventories and slackened demand. China’s stocks continued to accumulate, reaching relatively high levels in the previous years. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, inventories went up 3.3% over the week, while LME stocks also remain elevated. Global supply is further boosted by the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project, alongside a strong annual production increase in Peru. These developments have offset concerns over tight supply, ongoing mine disruptions, and historically low inventories in certain regions. In addition, demand recovery has been slower than anticipated, despite positive signals from China, where industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026. Further weighing on prices, the US dollar remained strong, supported by safe-haven demand amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Zinc Hovers Near 3-Month Lows

Copper climbed to around $5.5 per pound on Wednesday, erasing the previous session’s losses as hopes for a Middle East ceasefire supported a broad rebound across metals markets. The US is reportedly pursuing diplomatic talks to end the war with Iran, though regional mediators are still awaiting a response from Tehran after it denied engaging in any negotiations with Washington. Copper and other metals had recently faced heavy selling pressure as the Iran war drove energy prices sharply higher, raising inflation risks and weighing on global growth prospects. Meanwhile, lower prices appeared to attract stronger Chinese buying, with industry data showing that China’s copper inventories posted their largest weekly decline this year. Manufacturing demand in China also continued to recover following a slowdown during the Lunar New Year holidays in February.

Copper Rises in Broad Metals Rebound

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,500 per tonne on Wednesday, retreating for a second straight session as a stronger ringgit and weaker edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago weighed on sentiment. Crude oil also fell sharply on signs of a possible Middle East ceasefire, reducing biodiesel-linked demand support. Traders remained cautious ahead of export estimates for the first 25 days of March, due later today, with demand likely slowing after the Eid festive period. In top buyer India, refiners reportedly scaled back purchases of palm, soyoil, and sunflower oil, viewing the recent conflict-driven rally as temporary and planning to restock once tensions ease. India’s palm oil imports are projected at around 680,000 tons in March, down from 847,689 tons in February. Still, losses were capped by expectations that Indonesia, the world's largest supplier, may raise export taxes in April and accelerate its B50 biodiesel mandate rollout.

Palm Oil Extends Weakness

Platinum futures rose above $1,900 an ounce, attempting to rebound from a three-month low as precious metals broadly advanced on hopes of a Middle East ceasefire. Reports indicate the US is advancing negotiations with Iran, including proposals aimed at ending the conflict. The move encouraged a shift back into safe-haven assets as dollar strength faded, while easing oil prices helped temper inflation concerns and reduce pressure for tighter monetary policy from major central banks. Meanwhile, softer industrial demand and improved supply conditions continued to weigh on prices. Investment demand is expected to drop by up to 52% partly due to weak retail interest, particularly in China. Automotive demand, the largest industrial use for platinum, is also set to decline further as the shift to electric vehicles reduces the need for catalytic converters. Though the market remains in deficit, the shortfall is expected to narrow due to increased recycling supply, particularly in Europe.

Platinum Attempts Recovery

US natural gas futures fell to $2.88 per MMBtu on Wednesday, giving up gains from the previous session to hover at their lowest level in more than three weeks amid hopes that oil exports from the Persian Gulf could resume. The gas market tracked broader weakness across global energy prices following reports that the US is pursuing a month-long ceasefire in its conflict with Iran and has presented a 15-point proposal for negotiations. However, Tehran has denied any talks. Additional downward pressure came from weather forecasts showing temperatures remaining warmer than normal through April 8, which would reduce heating demand in the coming weeks. US natural gas prices have reacted far less to the Middle East war compared to global markets as the country produces all the gas it consumes, and LNG export facilities are already running at full capacity. As a result, even if global gas prices surge due to geopolitical tensions, the US cannot significantly increase LNG exports.

US Natural Gas Falls to Over 3-Week Low

US heating oil futures dropped more than 6% to around $4 per gallon, reversing gains from the previous session, as hopes of a possible Middle East ceasefire eased concerns about further supply disruptions. President Donald Trump said the US is engaged in talks with Iran and has delivered a 15-point proposal to end the conflict, reiterating this even as Tehran denied any direct negotiations and indicated it has no intention of restoring normal shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, uncertainty persists as the US increases its military presence in the region and explores measures to secure key oil transit routes. Energy markets have remained highly volatile since the conflict began, with the strait, which handles about one-fifth of global oil flows, still largely shut. Despite the pullback, US heating oil futures are still up more than 50% so far this month.

Heating Oil Drops on Iran Peace Prospects

Platinum increased 5.01% to 1987.4 USD/t.oz

Platinum is up by 5.01%

US gasoline futures slid over 5% to around $2.9 per gallon on Wednesday, reversing gains from the previous session, as prospects of a potential ceasefire raised expectations of easing disruptions to global oil supply. President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are currently in negotiations, despite Tehran denying any direct talks. Reports also indicated that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war. Energy markets have remained volatile since the conflict began, with gasoline still up more than 30% so far this month after recently reaching its highest level since July 2022, driven by supply disruptions in the Strait and the seasonal shift to costlier summer fuel blends. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly planning to expand summer sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline by waiving US volatility requirements.

Gasoline Slides on Iran Ceasefire Hopes

Silver climbed 4% to around $74 per ounce on Wednesday, extending gains for a third straight session as optimism for an end to the prolonged Middle East conflict grew on reports that the US was pursuing talks with Iran. Israeli media indicated that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire to facilitate negotiations, while the New York Times reported that the US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal to resolve the conflict. This improved sentiment persisted even after President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of about 2,000 troops to the region, as the administration weighed options to ease Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Silver has previously plunged as much as 37% from its March peak as elevated energy prices driven by the Iran war fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that major central banks may raise interest rates this year. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said the central bank may need to keep rates elevated for some time to address inflation.

Silver Rallies on Mideast Optimism

Gold climbed above $4,500 on Wednesday, marking a second straight session of gains as hopes for an end to the prolonged Middle East conflict grew on reports that the US was pursuing talks with Iran. Israeli media indicated that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire to enable negotiations, while the New York Times reported that the US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal to resolve the conflict. This raised optimism even after President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of about 2,000 troops to the region, as the administration weighed options to ease Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Gold has plunged as much as 25% from its March peak as elevated energy prices driven by the Iran war fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that major central banks may raise interest rates this year. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said the central bank may need to keep rates elevated for some time to address inflation.

Gold Edges Higher on Iran Hopes

Brent crude futures dropped about 4% toward $100 per barrel on Wednesday, reversing the previous session’s gains amid reports that Washington was pursuing diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran. Israeli media indicated that the US was seeking a one-month ceasefire to facilitate talks, while the New York Times reported that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point proposal to resolve the conflict. These developments outweighed concerns over further Middle East escalation after President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of roughly 2,000 troops to the region, as the administration considered options to loosen Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, oil prices had risen about 5% after Tehran denied engaging in negotiations with the US and signaled it had no intention of restoring normal shipping conditions in the Strait, while US allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates expressed readiness to join the conflict against Iran.

Brent Falls on US Diplomatic Push

WTI crude futures dropped about 4% to below $89 per barrel on Wednesday, reversing the previous session’s gains amid reports that Washington was pursuing diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran. Israeli media indicated that the US was seeking a one-month ceasefire to facilitate talks, while the New York Times reported that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point proposal to resolve the conflict. These developments outweighed concerns over further Middle East escalation after President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of roughly 2,000 troops to the region, as the administration considered options to loosen Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, oil prices had risen about 5% after Tehran denied engaging in negotiations with the US and signaled it had no intention of restoring normal shipping conditions in the Strait, while US allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates expressed readiness to join the conflict against Iran.

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, declined for a fourth session on Tuesday, dropping about 2.4% to its lowest since March 12 at 1,989 points. The capesize index, which typically transport 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, was down for a second day, slumping 3.2% to 2,844 points; and the panamax index, which usually carry 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, fell 2.6% to 1,839 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index decreased 0.3% to 1,215 points.

Baltic Dry Index Falls Further to Near 2-Week Low

Cocoa futures traded around $3,200 per tonne, holding close to the lowest since June 2023, pressured by expectations of a record harvest in West Africa and rising stocks. Reports from producers in Ivory Coast and Ghana indicate that frequent rains in the main producing regions have contributed to the good formation of pods, reinforcing the prospect of a comfortable supply in the short and medium term. At the same time, ICE certified inventories continued to rise, reaching a 7.5-month high of 2,335,682 bags at US ports by March 23.

Cocoa Futures Hover Around 2023-Lows

Sugar futures in the US rose toward 15.8 US cents, the highest level since mid-October 2025, largely driven by a renewed increase in oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. Continued attacks, conflicting US-Iran signals, and possible Gulf involvement kept uncertainty elevated. With higher oil prices, there is a growing trend of directing sugarcane production towards ethanol, reducing the supply of sugar on the international market. According to a report by Czarnikow, several countries across Asia are expanding ethanol use in transport fuels amid high oil prices that continue to pressure gasoline demand.

Sugar Prices Up to 5-Month Highs

Sugar increased to 15.76 USd/Lbs, the highest since October 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar gained 12.34%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 19.51%.

Sugar Hits 22-week High

Polyethylene prices in China surged to over CNY 9,000 per tonne in March, the highest in four years to mark a 45% surge since the start of the year as the war in the Middle East cut key supply from the region and lifted feedstock costs for producers across the world. The market for polyethylene and other petrochemicals tightened significantly since the war between Iran and Israeli and US forces drove Tehran to attack vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, halting exports from major plastic producers in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the halt in tanker flows in the region suspended flows of crude oil, LNG, and LPG to trigger surges in prices of polyethylene feedstock for refineries and factories in Asia and North America. The tight supply drove North American plastic producers to increase capacity and meet higher export demand, driving industry groups to forecast record-high North American output in March.

Polyethylene Surges to 4-Year High

Urea futures rose to as high as $684 per tonne, the highest since October 2022, and are more than 70% higher this year, as the war in the Middle East severely disrupts global fertilizer markets. The conflict has driven a sharp spike in natural gas prices, a key input for urea production, and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about a third of global fertilizer shipments. Gulf Cooperation Council members, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, supply roughly a quarter of global urea exports, adding to concerns. Also, production in India and Bangladesh has been hit by plant shutdowns and maintenance amid limited LNG supplies. At the same time, China has tightened export restrictions to secure domestic supply, while Russia has curtailed shipments of key nutrients. Demand is also surging ahead of the spring planting season, particularly in large agricultural economies, forcing countries to scramble for imports and pushing prices higher.

Urea Futures Surge to Highest Since Oct 2022 on Supply Risks

Sulfur futures surged to record highs above CNY 5,180 per tonne, as the Middle East conflict disrupts a critical part of the fertilizer supply chain. Nearly half of the global sulfur supply originates from countries in the region, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely constrained flows, creating shortages just as demand rises ahead of the spring planting season. Sulfur is a key input for producing sulfuric acid, which is essential in phosphate fertilizers used for crops like soybeans and corn. Even before the conflict, supplies were already tight due to strong demand from the mining industry, which uses sulfuric acid for metal extraction, and ongoing export restrictions from key producers such as China and Russia. With phosphate producers now competing with industrial buyers for limited sulfur supply, some production has already been curtailed, and inventories are at risk of being depleted, raising the likelihood of further disruptions across markets.

Sulfur Hits Record Highs on Middle East Supply Disruptions

Silver hovered around $70 per ounce on Tuesday, oscillating between gains and losses amid mixed signals on a Middle East diplomatic breakthrough. While President Trump delayed US strikes on Iran, citing "positive talks", a claim Tehran rejected as "psychological warfare", reports hinted at possible indirect negotiations. Tensions escalated further as the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may join the conflict, and an Israeli official told CNN that a ceasefire remains "out of reach" due to Iran’s unwillingness to compromise. Israel’s Defense Minister reiterated plans to "continue striking Iran with full force." The metal stayed near its lowest level since December, pressured by rising energy prices and inflation concerns. With Fed rate cuts now off the table for 2026, traders are preparing for additional tightening from other key central banks.

Silver Struggles at $70 as Middle East Tensions, Fed Policy Bite

Gold traded near $4,400 per ounce on Tuesday, fluctuating between gains and losses as Middle East uncertainty continued to drive market volatility. President Trump announced a delay in US strikes on Iran, citing "positive talks"—a claim Tehran dismissed as "psychological warfare." However, reports suggested indirect negotiations may be underway. Adding to tensions, the Wall Street Journal revealed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are nearing involvement in the conflict, while an Israeli official told CNN that a ceasefire is "out of reach" as Iran shows no willingness to concede. Israel’s Defense Minister vowed to "continue striking Iran with full force." The metal remained near its lowest level since January, down 25% from its March peak, as soaring energy prices intensified inflation fears. Markets now rule out Fed rate cuts in 2026, with traders bracing for further tightening from other major central banks.

Gold Stuck at $4,400 as Middle East Risks, Fed Outlook Weigh

WTI crude oil futures traded higher around $91 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering part of the sharp 10.3% drop seen in the previous session, though gains were more limited as markets remained volatile. Oil moved higher in choppy trading as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions. US allies including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a firmer stance against Iran following attacks on their territories, with reports suggesting Riyadh could consider military action if its infrastructure is targeted. There are also signs Gulf states may move closer to joining the conflict, which would mark a major escalation. Meanwhile Iran signaled it does not intend to restore normal conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and ruled out negotiations with Washington, although diplomatic efforts continue with regional ministers holding talks in Riyadh.

WTI Rebounds Slightly

Brent crude oil futures traded higher around $102 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering part of the sharp 11% drop seen in the previous session, though gains were more limited as markets remained volatile. Oil moved higher in choppy trading as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions. US allies including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a firmer stance against Iran following attacks on their territories, with reports suggesting Riyadh could consider military action if its infrastructure is targeted. There are also signs Gulf states may move closer to joining the conflict, which would mark a major escalation. Meanwhile Iran signaled it does not intend to restore normal conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and ruled out negotiations with Washington, although diplomatic efforts continue with regional ministers holding talks in Riyadh.

Oil Rebounds Slightly

European natural gas futures rose to around €57.4 per MWh on Tuesday, after a two-day decline, as traders weighed conflicting signals surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. President Trump announced a five-day delay to earlier threatened strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure and said that “productive discussions” with Tehran had taken place. Iran, however, has denied that any such talks are happening. Energy markets have remained highly volatile since the conflict began, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, restraining crude and LNG shipping flows. Recent Iranian strikes have also wiped out about ?17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, and repairs to damaged production facilities could take up to five years, according to QatarEnergy. With European gas storage significantly depleted over winter, the region may struggle to replenish inventories this summer if disruptions persist and competition for LNG cargoes from Asia intensifies.

TTF Prices Rebound

Corn futures traded around $4.6 per bushel, holding firm near its highest since May 2025, supported by elevated energy prices as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt fuel and fertilizer supply chains. A temporary easing in oil came after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, but broader supply concerns remain as Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and fertilizer exports. Rising diesel and nitrogen fertilizer costs, both critical inputs for corn, are squeezing farmer margins, particularly in the US, while similar pressures are emerging globally. In regions like South Africa, fuel shortages and higher input costs are already threatening planting and harvesting activity, highlighting risks to output. With corn being highly fertilizer-intensive, the ongoing cost shock is reinforcing expectations of tighter supply and keeping prices supported, even as volatility persists.

Corn Holds Firm Near 10-Month Peaks

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to around MYR 4,580 per tonne on Tuesday, reversing a rally from the previous session as trading resumed after the Eid holiday, rattled by weaker edible oils on the Dalian market. Sentiment also turned cautious, with global edible oil markets expected to remain volatile. While energy disruptions in the Middle East have lifted expectations for biodiesel demand, buying interest from key importers has been uneven, clouding the broader outlook. Still, losses were limited by a weaker ringgit and expectations that top producer Indonesia may raise its palm oil export taxes in April. Such a move could curb Indonesian shipments and redirect demand toward Malaysia, according to AmInvestment Bank. On the export front, cargo surveyors estimating March 1–15 shipments surged 43.5%–56.9% month-on-month, supported by festive buying. Meanwhile, imports by top buyer India rose 11% in February to a six-month high, aided by palm oil’s price discount versus rival oils.

Palm Oil Trades Lower After Eid Break

Coal fell to around $140 per ton, pulling back from 17-month highs as energy prices retreated sharply on signs of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days and said productive talks with the country are underway. However, Iran denied engaging in any negotiations with the US, dismissing Trump’s announcement as an attempt to manipulate financial markets. Coal prices had surged more than 20% since the Iran war began, as prolonged disruptions to global oil and gas flows forced power generators in major economies to rely more heavily on coal for electricity. Elevated natural gas prices are also prompting European countries to increase coal-fired generation despite growing output from renewable sources.

Coal Retreats on Mideast De-escalation

Wheat futures climbed above 1% to around $5.94 per bushel in late March, as farmers scaled back plantings amid growing concerns over fertilizer supplies. In Australia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, growers are cutting back on acreage as the availability and cost of key crop nutrients become increasingly uncertain amid the prolonged Middle East war. The situation has been exacerbated by stalled shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global fertilizer exports, which has driven prices higher and limited access for farmers worldwide. Many producers now face the dual challenge of navigating rising input costs while contending with historically weak wheat prices and ample global inventories, pressures that predated the current geopolitical crisis but are now intensified by it.

Wheat Rises on Supply Risks

Copper dropped below $5.4 per pound on Tuesday, trimming gains from the previous session as hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict faded after Iran denied holding talks with the US to end the standoff. Tehran dismissed President Donald Trump’s announcement as an attempt to manipulate financial markets and launched new attacks on US targets, while Israel continued strikes against Iran. On Monday, copper had rebounded nearly 2% after Trump postponed planned US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, claiming negotiations were underway. The outcome of any talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain highly uncertain, keeping traders cautious. Additionally, robust inventories at global exchanges continued to weigh on prices, with LME stockpiles near six-year highs and HFE inventories close to record levels.

Copper Falls on Mideast Uncertainties

US heating oil futures climbed more than 6% to around $4.30 per gallon, recovering from the previous session’s retreat as crude prices rose, following Tehran’s rejection of negotiations with Washington. Ali Nikzad, Iran’s deputy parliament speaker, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed to normal traffic, after Donald Trump postponed a threatened strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, citing ongoing discussions. Meanwhile, Israel continued its attacks, and reports indicate US Gulf allies are moving closer to joining the conflict, with Mohammed bin Salman reportedly nearing a decision. Energy markets have swung sharply since the outbreak of the conflict, as the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, remains largely closed. US heating oil futures have now gained more than 70% so far this month.

Heating Oil Resumes Advance

US gasoline futures rose more than 3% to around $3.10 per gallon on Tuesday, trimming the previous session’s slump as crude prices climbed after an Iranian lawmaker dismissed prospects for talks with the US. Ali Nikzad, Iran’s deputy parliament speaker, said the Strait of Hormuz would not return to normal and ruled out negotiations with Washington, after Donald Trump on Monday delayed a threatened strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, citing ongoing talks. At the same time, Israel continued its attacks, while reports indicated that US allies in the Gulf are moving closer to joining the conflict, with Mohammed bin Salman nearing a decision to participate in the strikes. Gasoline futures are now up more than 30% this month, after recently hitting their highest level since July 2022, supported by supply disruptions in the Strait and the seasonal shift to more expensive summer fuel blends.

US Gasoline Rises as Iran Refutes US Talks

Silver fell below $67 per ounce on Tuesday, remaining under pressure amid heightened Middle East tensions as Iran denied holding talks with the US to end the conflict. Tehran dismissed President Donald Trump’s announcement as an attempt to influence financial markets and launched new attacks on US targets, while Israel continued strikes against Iran. On Monday, silver had staged a sharp intraday rebound after Trump postponed planned US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and claimed negotiations were underway. The outcome of any talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain highly uncertain, keeping inflation risks elevated. Silver had fallen as much as 37% from its March peak as rising energy prices stoked inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes.

Silver Remains Under Pressure

Gold fell toward $4,300 per ounce on Tuesday, staying under pressure amid heightened Middle East tensions as Iran denied holding talks with the US to end the conflict. Tehran dismissed President Donald Trump’s announcement as an attempt to influence financial markets and launched new attacks on US targets, while Israel continued strikes against Iran. On Monday, gold had staged a sharp intraday rebound after Trump postponed planned US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and claimed negotiations were underway. The outcome of any talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain highly uncertain, keeping inflation risks elevated. Gold had dropped as much as 25% from its March peak as rising energy prices fueled inflation concerns and bolstered expectations of interest rate hikes.

Gold Pressured by Mideast Uncertainties

Brent crude futures climbed above $102 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering some losses from the previous session as Iran pushed back against President Donald Trump’s claims, denying any talks to end the conflict. Tehran dismissed Trump’s announcement as an attempt to influence financial markets and launched new attacks on US targets, while Israel continued strikes against Iran. On Monday, Brent futures had plunged over 10% after Trump postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days and said productive talks were ongoing. The delay was seen as an effort to stabilize oil prices, with Trump noting they would “drop like a rock” once a deal is reached. The outcome of any talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain highly uncertain, keeping markets cautious. The conflict has effectively shut the critical global chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, forcing Middle Eastern producers to sharply reduce output.

Brent Rises as Iran Denies US Talks

WTI crude futures climbed above $90 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering some losses from the previous session as Iran pushed back against President Donald Trump’s claims, denying any talks to end the conflict. Tehran dismissed Trump’s announcement as an attempt to influence financial markets and launched new attacks on US targets, while Israel continued strikes against Iran. On Monday, the US oil benchmark had plunged about 10% after Trump postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days and said productive talks were ongoing. The delay was seen as an effort to stabilize oil prices, with Trump noting they would “drop like a rock” once a deal is reached. The outcome of any talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain highly uncertain, keeping markets cautious. The conflict has effectively shut the critical global chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, forcing Middle Eastern producers to sharply reduce output.

Oil Rises as Iran Denies US Talks

US natural gas futures rose to $2.92 per MMBtu on Tuesday but held onto most of the previous session’s decline amid warmer weather forecasts that are set to curb heating demand. On Monday, prices fell 6% to a more than three-week low after updated forecasts indicated that temperatures will remain above seasonal averages across the western two-thirds of the US through April 1. Meanwhile, traders remain attentive to developments in the Middle East after President Trump announced a five-day delay to earlier threatened strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure and noted that “productive discussions” with Tehran had taken place. Despite elevated tensions, US natural gas prices have remained largely stable since the conflict began on February 28, due to ample inventories and limited short-term exposure to global markets. Latest EIA data show US gas stockpiles at 10.4% above year-ago levels and 2.6% above the five-year average, while LNG export facilities are operating near full capacity.

US Natural Gas Holds Decline

Silver traded around $68 per ounce on Tuesday after a sharp intraday rebound in the previous session, as investors weighed the postponement of US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the potential for negotiations to end the conflict. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in planned strikes was seen as an effort to manage oil prices, with benchmarks plunging about 10%. The dollar and Treasury yields also eased following the announcement, providing additional support to precious metals. However, Tehran denied that any negotiations were underway, while Israel continued its attacks on Iran. The outcome of any talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, keeping inflation risks elevated. Silver had fallen as much as 37% from its March peak as rising energy prices stoked inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes.

Silver Finds Support on Mideast De-escalation

Gold stabilized above $4,400 per ounce on Tuesday after dipping to four-month lows around $4,100 at the start of the week, as investors assessed the postponement of US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the possibility of negotiations to end the conflict. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in planned strikes was viewed as an effort to manage oil prices, with oil benchmarks plunging about 10%. The dollar and Treasury yields also retreated following the announcement, offering additional support to gold. However, Tehran denied that any negotiations were underway, while Israel continued its attacks on Iran. The outcome of any talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, keeping inflation risks elevated. Gold had fallen as much as 25% from its March peak as surging energy prices fueled inflation concerns and bolstered expectations of interest rate hikes.

Gold Steadies on Mideast De-escalation

Brent crude futures held around $100 per barrel on Tuesday after plunging more than 10% in the previous session, as President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days and said productive talks with the country are ongoing. His decision to delay the strike was seen as an effort to stabilize oil prices, with Trump saying they would “drop like a rock” once a deal is reached. However, Tehran denied that any negotiations were taking place, while Israel continued its attacks on Iran. Markets are now pricing in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as the conflict effectively shut the critical global chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, forcing Middle Eastern producers to significantly curb output. Iran remains in firm control of the narrow waterway, with only a limited number of ships able to pass depending on alliances.

Brent Holds Decline as Iran Talks Eyed

WTI crude futures held below $90 per barrel on Tuesday after plunging about 10% in the previous session, as President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days and said productive talks with the country are ongoing. His decision to delay the strike was seen as an effort to stabilize oil prices, with Trump saying they would “drop like a rock” once a deal is reached. However, Tehran denied that any negotiations were taking place, while Israel continued its attacks on Iran. Markets are now pricing in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as the conflict effectively shut the critical global chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, forcing Middle Eastern producers to significantly curb output. Iran remains in firm control of the narrow waterway, with only a limited number of ships able to pass depending on alliances.

Oil Holds Decline as Iran Talks Eyed

Lumber futures fell below $600 per thousand board feet as a slowdown in the North American housing market and rising financing costs outweighed persistent supply constraints. This downward pressure was driven by a 5.4% decline in building permits and a sharp 14.2% collapse in single-family housing starts, which signaled a cooling of construction activity as the spring season began. Additionally, 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbed to 6.22% following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, the market was further pressured by a sharp drop in crude oil prices that reduced the energy-heavy transport and production overheads. These factors effectively neutralized the marginal one-point gain in the NAHB Housing Market Index to 38, leaving 37% of builders reliant on deep price cuts to move a 2.4% increase in unsold inventory. Structural supply issues like the 45% combined duties on Canadian softwood and ongoing sawmill closures continue to provide a floor.

Lumber Drops Below $600

Canola futures fell below $720 per tonne as the cooling of Middle Eastern tensions triggered a broad sell-off in the energy and oilseed complex. This downward correction was driven by a sharp drop in crude oil prices following negotiation hopes between the US and Iran, a development that significantly weakened the biofuel-driven demand floor and reduced the speculative risk premium previously embedded in the market. While the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a 30% spike in fertilizer costs initially pressured margins and incentivized an additional 200,000-hectare shift in Canadian planting intentions, the five-day postponement of military strikes eased concerns over imminent supply chain disruptions and high diesel overheads. Furthermore, spillover weakness from wheat and softer soybean oil markets reinforced the bearish sentiment, as international refiners pivoted away from high-cost vegetable oils in response to stabilizing global stock expectations.

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