Wheat futures rose to around $5.4 per bushel as Russia implemented measures to address domestic food inflation and declining wheat reserves. The government announced a sharp reduction in its wheat export quota for February to June 2025, limiting it to 11 million tonnes compared to 29 million tonnes during the same period this year. Additionally, export duties were increased by over 18%, effective December 4, to curb overseas shipments and preserve domestic supplies. SovEcon reported a significant 20% year-on-year drop in on-farm wheat stocks as of November 1, with inventories in the key Southern Federal District, Russia's top exporting region, plummeting by 26%. Meanwhile, Global wheat production in 2024 is forecast to increase by 1% over the previous year but will fall short of the record output reached in 2022, according to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

Wheat Prices Rise as Russia Cuts Export Quotas

Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content climbed above $105 per ton in early December, supported by hopes that Beijing will introduce more stimulus measures during key political meetings this month. The Politburo’s decision to skip a readout of its regular November meeting has fueled speculation that stimulus support could be on its way as the world’s second-largest economy braces for the return of Donald Trump. The US president-elect has made two tariff threats in the past week, including a warning to impose a 100% tariff on the BRICS nation if they create a currency to rival the US dollar. Strong steel exports and destocking in China have also boosted steel margins, supporting higher production. Additionally, the latest data revealed that Chinese manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in November, further strengthening the demand outlook for iron ore.

Iron Ore Gains on China Stimulus Hopes

Silver prices climbed toward $31 per ounce on Tuesday, reaching a one-week high as dovish comments from a Federal Reserve official spurred traders to increase bets on an interest rate cut this month. Markets are now pricing in a 75% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, up from 59% a week ago. Silver and other precious metals also received a boost from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as the Israeli military targeted dozens of Hezbollah positions across Lebanon on Monday. Additionally, markets are speculating that China will announce more stimulus measures during key political meetings this month, further strengthening the demand outlook in the world’s largest metals consumer.

Silver Prices Rise on Dovish Fed Expectations

Copper futures stabilized around $4.07 per pound on Tuesday, supported by expectations that Beijing may announce additional stimulus measures during key political meetings this month. Chinese authorities skipped the usual readout of their regular November meeting, fueling speculation that further stimulus could be forthcoming as the world’s second-largest economy faces growing uncertainties, including the return of Donald Trump. The US president-elect has made two tariff threats in the past week, including a warning to impose a 100% tariff on the BRICS nations if they create a currency to rival the US dollar. Meanwhile, recent data showed that Chinese manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in November, strengthening the demand outlook for copper.

Copper Prices Stabilize on Hopes for China Stimulus

Malaysian palm oil futures were near MYR 4,990 per tonne after slipping to as low as MYR 4,931 the day before, supported by concerns about the potential impact of floods in several parts of the country on production. Some traders engaged in bargain hunting as November’s industry data loomed. Meantime, sluggish services activity in key buyer China last month fueled bets that Beijing might roll out fresh measures to aid its fragile recovery after a series of recent support policies. However, gains were capped by weak exports, with cargo surveyors estimating Malaysia's palm oil exports fell between 9.3% and 10.4% in November. In India, the world’s largest palm oil consumer, imports for the 2023-24 season may decline to 9.2 million tonnes from the prior 9.8 million tonnes, as favorable weather helps local production. Separately, top producer Indonesia raised crude palm oil for December to USD 1,071.67 per metric ton from USD 961.97, resulting in a higher export tax of USD 178 per ton.

Palm Oil Trades Higher

Gold stabilized around $2,640 per ounce on Tuesday as investors braced for crucial US jobs data and more speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which could offer clarity on the central bank's monetary policy outlook. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is inclined to support another rate cut later this month, while Fed Bank of New York President John Williams suggested a gradual shift toward a more neutral policy stance. This prompted investors to significantly increase expectations for another 25bps rate cut at the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting, with markets currently pricing in a 75% chance of such a move. This would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, boosting its appeal. Moreover, bullion prices remained supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah despite a ceasefire agreement.

Gold Stabilizes

Brent crude futures stabilized around $71.8 per barrel on Tuesday as traders look ahead to Thursday's OPEC+ meeting for further guidance on global supply. The group is widely expected to delay a slight production increase for a third time amid concerns the market will be oversupplied next year. Meanwhile, signs of a gradual economic recovery stemming from higher factory activity in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, provide support for oil prices. In the Middle East, traders are closely watching developments in Syria, assessing whether recent escalation in the civil war could widen tensions across the region and affect supply. Additionally, Israel reaffirmed its commitment to a ceasefire after conducting airstrikes in Lebanon in response to Hezbollah’s first attack under the truce.

Brent Holds Steady Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

WTI crude oil futures stabilized around $68 per barrel on Tuesday as traders look ahead to Thursday's OPEC+ meeting for further guidance on global supply. The group is widely expected to delay a slight production increase for a third time amid concerns the market will be oversupplied next year. Meanwhile, signs of a gradual economic recovery stemming from higher factory activity in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, provide support for oil prices. In the Middle East, traders are closely watching developments in Syria, assessing whether recent escalation in the civil war could widen tensions across the region and affect supply. Additionally, Israel reaffirmed its commitment to a ceasefire after conducting airstrikes in Lebanon in response to Hezbollah’s first attack under the truce.

Oil Holds Steady Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

U.S. cotton futures rose past 71 cents per pound, as traders reacted to a strong export sales report that raised expectations for stronger demand. The latest USDA's weekly export sales report showed that net sales of upland cotton hit a marketing-year high of 324,100 RB for 2024/25, a 2% increase from the previous week and a 46% rise from the prior 4-week average, driven mainly by demand from Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey, China, and India.  Meanwhile, the USDA's November WASDE report for 2024/25 indicated a slight decline in U.S. cotton production and exports, along with a rise in ending stocks compared to the prior month. Global production was revised down by 460,000 bales to 116.2 million bales, with Pakistan's crop reduced by 200,000 bales and Turkey's by 400,000 bales.

Cotton Futures Up Slightly

Rubber futures traded near 195 US cents per kg, their highest in over two weeks, amid concerns over supply. The outlook for supply remains constrained due to unfavorable weather in major Southeast Asian production areas, particularly Thailand and Malaysia. Persistent heavy rains and flooding are expected to continue, potentially worsening disruptions to output. At the same time, demand prospects remain uncertain, particularly with the possibility of heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and top buyer China under the new Trump administration.

Rubber Futures at Over 2-Week High

Sugar decreased to a 10-week low of 20.83 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 4.55%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 19.07%.

Sugar Hits 10-week Low

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities, was down for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, dropping about 4.1% to its lowest since September 2023 at 1,298 points, amid lower rates across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, slumped 160 points to a one-month low of 1,973 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain cargo, decreased for the 12th successive day, falling 9 points to a 16-month low of 1,009 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased 1 point to 979 points.

Baltic Dry Index Falls Further to Over 1-Year Low

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.10 per pound, easing from a recent multi-decade high of $3.29 per pound. The decline reflects market corrections and increased long liquidation, driven in part by the continued weakness of the Brazilian real.  Meanwhile, concerns persisted about potential long-term damage to coffee crops in top producer Brazil due to adverse weather conditions throughout the year.

Arabica Coffee Futures Ease from Multi-Decade High

Sugar prices dropped to around 21 cents per pound, pressured by a weakening Brazilian real against the dollar, which spurred export selling by Brazil's sugar producers and triggered long liquidation in sugar futures. Additionally, improved global sugar supply forecasts weighed on prices. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) revised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -2.51 MMT, down from an August estimate of -3.58 MMT, and raised its 2023/24 surplus estimate to 1.31 MMT from +200,000 MT. However, India's sugar production has declined significantly, with mills producing 2.79 MMT since October 1, a 35.4% year-on-year drop, due to delayed operations in key states. By late November, 381 mills were operational, compared to 433 a year earlier. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories estimates India’s sugar output will fall to 28 MMT in 2024/25 from 31.9 MMT last year, potentially limiting export quotas.

Sugar Dips to 21 Cents on Brazilian Real and Supply Forecasts

UK natural gas futures climbed above 120 pence per therm, the highest since October 2023, driven by forecasts of freezing temperatures dropping as low as -7°C this week. The UK’s limited gas storage capacity leaves it vulnerable to cold weather and supply fluctuations, especially as storage levels in Europe decline and Russian gas flows via Ukraine ease. Britain's reliance on domestic production, Norwegian imports, and global LNG makes it more exposed during periods of high demand, such as the colder-than-usual start to this season. Low wind energy output earlier in the month added to the strain on gas supplies.

UK Natural Gas Futures Highest in 13 Months

US natural gas futures dropped over 5% to below $3.20/MMBtu, their lowest in more than a week, after surging 20% in November. Prices are retreating as forecasts predict milder weather in mid-December, following a brief cold spell that had driven earlier gains. Lower heating demand expectations have eased pressure on utilities to draw heavily from storage, despite colder-than-usual weather recently boosting consumption. US gas production remains robust at 101.5 billion cubic feet per day in November, but well below last year’s peak of 105.3 bcfd. Analysts note that while demand is expected to rise with increased LNG exports in 2025, producers are maintaining output discipline, wary of oversupply risks seen in previous years. The pullback in prices reflects both near-term weather forecasts and longer-term market balance.

US Natgas Prices Down to Over 1-Week Low

European natural gas futures rose to €48.7 per megawatt-hour, nearing their highest level since October 2023, as colder weather is forecast to spread across the continent, increasing heating demand. After a brief mild spell, temperatures in western Europe are set to drop, adding pressure to already fast-depleting gas reserves, now only 85% full compared to 95% a year ago. Concerns are also growing over supply risks, including the upcoming expiration of a key gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine. While flows remain steady for now, even small disruptions during peak winter demand could strain supplies. Rising oil prices and broader geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East have further fueled the rally. Meanwhile, the EU is raising its storage targets for February, aiming to ensure sufficient reserves for 2025.

TTF Prices Rise Toward Over 1-Year High

Brent crude futures stabilized at $72 per barrel on Monday, as investors were monitoring bullish economic data from China, and awaiting the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. China's factory activity grew for the 2nd month and at the fastest pace in 5 months in November, signaling a recovery in the world’s largest oil importer following a series of stimulus measures introduced in late September. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, is anticipated to reduce crude prices for Asian purchasers in January to the lowest level in 4 years. Attention also remains on the delayed OPEC+ meeting, rescheduled for later this week, where the group is widely expected to postpone a planned production increase for the third time. Finally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to inject a risk premium into oil prices. Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel has resumed attacks on Lebanon while Iran pledged support to Syria’s government after the rebels took control of the country's largest city of Aleppo.

Brent Crude Hovers Near $72

WTI crude oil futures stabilized at $68.5 per barrel on Monday, as investors were monitoring bullish economic data from China, and awaiting the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. China's factory activity grew for the 2nd month and at the fastest pace in 5 months in November, signaling a recovery in the world’s largest oil importer following a series of stimulus measures introduced in late September. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, is anticipated to reduce crude prices for Asian purchasers in January to the lowest level in 4 years. Attention also remains on the delayed OPEC+ meeting, rescheduled for later this week, where the group is widely expected to postpone a planned production increase for the third time. Finally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to inject a risk premium into oil prices. Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel has resumed attacks on Lebanon while Iran pledged support to Syria’s government after the rebels took control of the country's largest city of Aleppo.

Crude Oil Stablizes at $68.5

Silver prices fell to nearly $30 per ounce on Monday, extending losses from last week as the dollar rebounded on optimism surrounding the US economic outlook. The dollar also gained after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened BRICS member countries on Saturday with 100% tariffs if they create or support a new currency that could replace the dollar. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, reducing demand. Meanwhile, data showed that Chinese manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in November, following a series of stimulus measures from Beijing. Investors are now focused on key political meetings in China this month for potential policy announcements, which could help assess the demand outlook in the world’s top metals consumer.

Silver Prices Drop on Stronger Dollar

Copper futures dropped below $4.05 per pound on Monday, reversing gains from the previous week as the dollar strengthened on expectations of strong US economic outperformance heading into 2025. The dollar also gained after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened BRICS member countries on Saturday with 100% tariffs if they create or support a new currency that could replace the dollar. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, which can dampen demand. Meanwhile, data showed that Chinese manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in November, following a series of stimulus measures from Beijing. Investors are now looking ahead to key political meetings in China this month for potential policy announcements, which will help assess the demand outlook from the world’s top copper consumer.

Copper Prices Fall as Dollar Rebounds

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 5,000 per tonne, halting a five-session winning streak amid concerns over weak exports, particularly after cargo surveyors noted that the country's palm oil exports fell between 9.3% and 10.4% in November. In addition, cautious traders prepared for monthly industry data, scheduled for next week. On the demand side, expectations are subdued until the festive months of Lunar New Year and Ramadan, which traditionally boost consumption. In India, the top palm oil consumer, imports for the 2023-24 season are estimated at 9.2 million tonnes, down from the prior 9.8 million tonnes, as favorable weather is expected to support domestic production. Providing some support to prices were concerns over heavy rainfall in Malaysia's east coast and northern regions, which could curb production. In key buyer China, the manufacturing sector continued to grow in November, reflecting Beijing's efforts to stabilize the economy and stimulate demand.

Palm Oil Snaps Five-Session of Gains

Gold fell below $2,630 per ounce on Monday, ending a four-session streak of gains as the US dollar strengthened. Investors look forward to upcoming US economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Key reports to be released include job openings, private wage growth, activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, and the unemployment rate. Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are also scheduled to speak this week. Last week, data showed that progress in reducing US inflation has stalled, suggesting a more gradual pace in the Fed's rate-cut cycle. Currently, markets are implying a 65% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the Fed’s meeting later this month, with only two more rate cuts priced in for all of 2025. On the geopolitical front, a truce between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah appeared to be holding, despite mutual accusations of ceasefire violations.

Gold Drops as US Dollar Firms

Brent crude oil futures traded above $72 per barrel on Monday amid signs of a slow economic recovery in China, while traders awaited the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. China’s factory activity expanded for the second consecutive month in November, signaling a tentative recovery in the world’s largest crude importer following a series of stimulus measures introduced in late September. Attention also remains focused on the delayed OPEC+ meeting, rescheduled for later this week, where the group is widely expected to postpone a planned production increase for the third time. Moreover, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to inject a risk premium into oil prices. Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel has resumed attacks on Lebanon, with both sides accusing each other of violating the truce. Iran also pledged support to Syria’s government after thousands of insurgents took control of the country's largest city of Aleppo.

Brent Edges Up on China Recovery Hopes, Eyes on OPEC+ Meeting

WTI crude oil futures traded above $68 per barrel on Monday amid signs of a slow economic recovery in China, while traders awaited the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. China’s factory activity expanded for the second consecutive month in November, signaling a tentative recovery in the world’s largest crude importer following a series of stimulus measures introduced in late September. Attention also remains focused on the delayed OPEC+ meeting, rescheduled for later this week, where the group is widely expected to postpone a planned production increase for the third time. Moreover, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to inject a risk premium into oil prices. Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel has resumed attacks on Lebanon, with both sides accusing each other of violating the truce. Iran also pledged support to Syria’s government after thousands of insurgents took control of the country's largest city of Aleppo.

Oil Edges Up on China Recovery Hopes, Eyes on OPEC+ Meeting

GSCI decreased to a 17-month low of 501.95 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, GSCI Commodity Index gained 0.69%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.61%.

GSCI Hits 17-month Low

Chinese iron ore futures rose toward CNY 800 per tonne, the highest in over one month, and tracking the gains for constructor’s equity as markets anticipate more economic stimulus in China’s Central Economic Work Conference during early December. Markets expect Chinese policymakers to expand their arsenal of economic support measures in response to tariff threats from US President-elect Trump. Among the support measures are reports that policymakers will set the 2025 fiscal deficit at higher-than-expected levels, increasing liquidity for debt-ridden property developers, among the largest consumers of steel rebar in the world. In the meantime, iron demand was also reflected by steel mills’ output increases, as export demand drove furnaces to raise production targets. Steel production in China rose to 81.9 million tons in October despite low domestic orders, driving exports in the period to surge to 11.2 million tons, the second-highest on record.

Iron Ore Rises to 1-1/2-Month High

Steel futures rose to CNY 3,350 per tonne, the highest in one-and-a-half months, and tracking the sharp gains for equities of major property developers amid expectations of more economic support for house buyers ahead of China’s Central Economic Work Conference. Markets expect key Chinese policymakers to expand their arsenal of economic support measures in response to tariff threats from US President-elect Trump. Among the support measures are reports that policymakers will set the 2025 fiscal deficit at higher-than-expected levels, supporting liquidity for debt-ridden property developers, among the main consumers of steel rebar in the world. Tariffs and the momentum of protectionist policies would hamper foreign demand for Chinese steel as mills have increasingly depended on foreign consumers to meet sales targets. Chinese steel production rose to 81.9 million tons in October, driving exports in the period to surge to 11.2 million tons, the second-highest on record.

Steel Rises to 1-1/2-Month High

European natural gas futures rose to €47.5 per megawatt-hour, driven by expectations of higher demand as colder temperatures approach in December and seasonal heating needs increase. Gas storage in Europe is currently 86.65% full, over 10 percentage points lower than this time last year, raising supply concerns. Weather forecasts point to milder conditions next week but predict cooler weather the following week, adding to the anticipated demand surge. Additional risks include uncertainty around Russian gas supplies via Ukraine and strong Asian demand for liquefied natural gas.

TTF Prices Edge Up

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities, continued its downward trend for the third day on Friday, dropping around 4.6% to its lowest since January 17 at 1,354 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell 179 points to an over three-week low of 2,133 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain cargo, decreased for the 11th session to a 16-month low of 1,018 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index went down 9 points to 980 points. The benchmark index lost nearly 12% for the week and declined 2.4% in a monthly basis.

Baltic Dry Index Extend Slide, Posts Weekly and Monthly Losses

Cocoa increased to a 11-week high of 9105.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 23.67%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 103.89%.

Cocoa Hits 11-week High

Brent crude oil futures eased below $73 per barrel on Friday, as markets assessed reports that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of breaching the ceasefire agreement. These came just a day after the ceasefire took effect, reinforcing some risk premium to oil prices. Further contributing to this risk premium, President Putin warned of a potential new strike on Ukraine using a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, following Moscow's recent large-scale attack on critical energy infrastructure. Still, traders remained cautious as they awaited further insights into OPEC+'s production plans after the four-day postponement of a key meeting. At the rescheduled meeting on December 5th, the producer group is set to discuss whether to proceed with restoring supplies or extend production cuts into 2025 to avoid oversupplying global markets. For the week, oil remained on track to decline by around 3%.

Brent Eases Amid Israel-Hezbollah Shaky Ceasefire

WTI crude oil futures rose above $69 per barrel on Friday, as markets assessed reports that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of breaching the ceasefire agreement. These came just a day after the ceasefire took effect, reinforcing some risk premium to oil prices. Further contributing to this risk premium, President Putin warned of a potential new strike on Ukraine using a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, following Moscow's recent large-scale attack on critical energy infrastructure. Still, traders remained cautious as they awaited further insights into OPEC+'s production plans after the four-day postponement of a key meeting. At the rescheduled meeting on December 5th, the producer group is set to discuss whether to proceed with restoring supplies or extend production cuts into 2025 to avoid oversupplying global markets. For the week, oil remained on track to decline by around 3%.

Oil Gains on Israel-Hezbollah Shaky Ceasefire

Silver prices climbed back above $30.6 per ounce on Friday, rebounding from 11-week lows as growing geopolitical risks spurred safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned about a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine, following a series of large-scale Russian attacks on key Ukrainian energy infrastructure. In the Middle East, tensions flared as Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations over violations of a ceasefire agreement that went into effect on Wednesday. Additionally, silver prices received support from a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, driven by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates. Concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada also eased, with traders awaiting more details on the plans.

Silver Rises on Safe-Haven Demand

Copper futures rose toward $4.10 per pound on Friday, recovering losses from earlier in the week amid growing speculation that Beijing will roll out additional stimulus measures to support economic growth and counteract the potential impact of US President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs. Markets are looking ahead to key events in China, including the Politburo meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December, where announcements on economic policy are expected. Copper prices also gained support from a weaker US dollar, as the nomination of Scott Bessent for US Treasury Secretary and US PCE inflation data that matched expectations led to notable losses in the dollar this week. Additionally, concerns over Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada eased as traders await further details on the plans.

Copper Prices Rise on Stimulus Hopes in China

Malaysian palm oil futures surged around 2.5% to above MYR 5,000 per tonne, rising for five straight sessions and hitting their highest level since Nov. 19. This rally is attributed to mounting concerns over lower production caused by persistent rainfall in parts of Southeast Asia. Supporting these concerns, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association noted a 5.2% month-on-month decline in crude palm oil output during the first 20 days of Nov. The contracts are on track for their fourth consecutive monthly gain, up nearly 7% so far, boosted by strong demand from the largest buyer India in October, as refiners restocked inventories that had been drained by prior low imports and high festive demand. However, the bullish traction was tempered by caution ahead of Nov. export estimates from cargo surveyors and the release of official PMI data from top consumer China. In the near term, demand is expected to remain subdued, with a projected recovery nearing the Lunar New Year festival and Ramadan.

Palm Oil on Track for Robust Monthly Gains

Gold rose to nearly $2,660 per ounce on Friday, gaining for the fourth straight session, supported by a softer US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions. Reports indicated that President Vladimir Putin warned of a potential new strike on Ukraine using a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, following Moscow's recent large-scale attack on critical energy infrastructure. However, the metal is set to decline by more than 2% for the week, as markets awaited further US data for additional insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Earlier this week, core PCE prices in October met expectations, keeping investors anticipating another Fed rate cut in December. Yet, other data pointed to a resilient economy, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will adopt a cautious approach next year. Over the month, gold is set to decline for the first time since June.

Gold Gains for 4th Session

Lead increased to a 5-week high of 2079.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Lead gained 3.26%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.89%.

Lead Hits 5-week High

WTI crude oil futures held around $73 per barrel on Friday in thin trading amid a US holiday, while traders awaited further insights into OPEC+'s production plans after the four-day postponement of a key meeting. At the rescheduled meeting on December 5th, the producer group is set to discuss whether to proceed with restoring supplies or extend the cuts into 2025 to prevent oversupplying global markets. Meanwhile, oil is on track to decline by more than 3% for the week, weighed down by reports of a cease-fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, which has reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium. Earlier, EIA data showed that US oil inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week, marking the first drop in a month. However, the decline in crude stocks was accompanied by a 3.3 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories.

Brent Holds Steady in Thin Trading

WTI crude oil futures steadied around $69 per barrel on Friday in thin trading amid a US holiday, while traders awaited further insights into OPEC+'s production plans after the four-day postponement of a key meeting. At the rescheduled meeting on December 5th, the producer group is set to discuss whether to proceed with restoring supplies or extend the cuts into 2025 to prevent oversupplying global markets. Meanwhile, oil is on track to decline by more than 3% for the week, weighed down by reports of a cease-fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, which has reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium. Earlier, EIA data showed that US oil inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week, marking the first drop in a month. However, the decline in crude stocks was accompanied by a 3.3 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories.

Oil Holds Steady in Thin Trading

Gasoline decreased to a 4-week low of 1.93 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline gained 0.71%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.09%.

Gasoline Hits 4-week Low

Platinum decreased below 900, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD).

Platinum traded below 900 USD/t.oz

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities, eased for the second straight session on Thursday, slipping about 6% to its lowest since November 5 at 1,419 points, pressured by the larger vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, slumped 257 points to a three-week low of 2,312 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain cargo, continued its decline for the tenth day, falling 16 points to an over one-year low of 1,028 points. On the other hand, the supramax index increased 1 point to 989 points.

Baltic Dry Index Down to Near 1-Month Low

Steel rebar futures steadied below CNY 3,300 per tonne in late November, holding the retreat from the one-month high of CNY 3,350 as markets assessed the magnitude of steel that Chinese mills will be able to defer to foreign clients as domestic demand remains uncertain. New data showed that mills in the world’s top producer raised November production to its highest since 2020 following the output cuts of August and September, driving investors to believe that output in the winter may be higher than seasonal averages. The developments contrast with the ongoing property crisis and slowing manufacturing demand in China, the main sectors for ferrous metal demand, to extend the trend that mills will continue to raise export volumes and flood foreign markets with relatively cheap Chinese steel. Steel production in China rose to 81.9 million tons in October despite low domestic orders, driving exports in the period to surge to 11.2 million tons, the second-highest on record.

Steel Rises Steadies Below 1-Month High

Gold erased its early pullback and rose past the $2,645 per ounce mark on a Thursday of thinner trading due to US holiday, extending the rebound from Monday’s plunge for a third straight session as investors continued to assess the latest economic data for hints on the Fed’s policy path. Core PCE prices refrained from surpassing the market’s consensus in October, holding the investors to expect that the Federal Reserve is due to deliver another rate cut in December. Consequently, a greater portion of the market took positions that translate to another 25bps cut in the Fed’s upcoming meeting, favoring bullion assets due to the lower opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing securities. Still, data confirming robust GDP growth in the third quarter, high personal income and spending in October, and continued low readings for unemployment claims aided bets that the Fed will be cautious next year, in tandem with current bets of only 50bps in rate cuts during 2025.

Gold Extends Rebound for 3rd Session

Brent crude oil futures fell below $73 per barrel on Thursday, amid thin trading ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Markets are focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, now delayed to December 5, where the group is expected to consider postponing a planned production increase to address fears of an oversupply next year. Earlier discussions among OPEC+ members hinted at a delay in boosting output. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week, ending a three-week streak of increases, according to the EIA. Oil prices are down by around 3.5% for the week, partly due to Israel’s ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, which eased concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.

Brent Crude Oil Falls Below $73

WTI crude oil futures dropped to near $68 per barrel on Thursday, marking a fourth consecutive decline amid thin trading ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Markets are focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, now delayed to December 5, where the group is expected to consider postponing a planned production increase to address fears of an oversupply next year. Earlier discussions among OPEC+ members hinted at a delay in boosting output. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week, ending a three-week streak of increases, according to the EIA. Oil prices are down over 3.5% for the week, partly due to Israel’s ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, which eased concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.

Oil Edges Down for 4th Session

Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content rose above $102 per ton in late November, driven by strong steel production in China. Data revealed that China’s steel output increased by 9.5% over the past three weeks compared to the same period last year, providing a boost to iron ore demand. This growth in steel production outweighed concerns over a 4.3% year-on-year decline in industrial profits for October, which marked a deepening from the previous month’s 3.5% drop. Investor sentiment remained positive, with hopes that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth and mitigate the potential impact of US President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs. Market attention now shifts to a key Politburo meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December, where further policy guidance is expected.

Iron Ore Rises on Robust Steel Production in China

Silver prices dropped below $30 per ounce on Thursday, hitting 11-week lows as demand for the metal’s safe-haven appeal waned and the outlook for its industrial usage weakened. The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the US and France, alleviated geopolitical tensions, reducing silver’s appeal as a risk-off asset. Additionally, expectations that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts weighed on silver prices. Economic uncertainties in China, the world’s largest silver consumer, and concerns over the potential negative impact of US President-elect Trump’s policies on the renewable energy sector also contributed to the bearish sentiment. As silver is a key material in the production of solar panels, any disruption in China’s renewable energy market further pressured prices.

Silver Hits 11-Week Low

Copper futures held steady around $4.07 per pound on Thursday, maintaining gains from the previous session as the US dollar weakened following a key inflation reading that met expectations. The pullback in the dollar helped support copper prices, as it made the commodity more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. Concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada also eased, with traders awaiting more details on the plans. Copper prices found additional support from expectations of stronger demand from China’s appliance and automotive sectors, although overseas demand remained weak. Investors are also hopeful that Beijing will introduce more stimulus measures to bolster economic growth and offset the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies, further lending support to copper prices.

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