The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, dropped about 2.5% to its lowest since August 26 at 3,070 points on Monday, halting two successive sessions of gains. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, including iron ore and coal, also snapped a two-day winning streak, slipping 4.2% to its lowest since August 25 at 4,833 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, fell 0.3% to 2,364 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index went up by 0.1% to 1,790 points.

Baltic Dry Index Falls to Over 1-Month Low

Crude oil held below $91 a barrel on Monday, with markets balancing easing supply pressures against renewed geopolitical risks. Prices came under pressure after Saudi Aramco cut the November selling price of Arab Light to Asian buyers to $5 a barrel below the regional benchmark, a deeper discount than the $2 offered for October. The move suggests stronger competition for market share as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, while the G7’s latest emergency stockpile release is also weighing on prices. However, supply concerns remain significant. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline continues to operate normally after reports of a fresh attack had briefly raised fears of another disruption. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to leave production quotas unchanged next month.

Crude Oil Holds Below $91 as Supply Pressures Ease

Brent crude fluctuated around $102.5 a barrel on Monday, with markets balancing easing supply pressures against renewed geopolitical risks. Prices came under pressure after Saudi Aramco cut the November selling price of Arab Light to Asian buyers to $5 a barrel below the regional benchmark, a deeper discount than the $2 offered for October. The move suggests stronger competition for market share as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, while the G7’s latest emergency stockpile release is also weighing on prices. However, supply concerns remain significant. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline continues to operate normally after reports of a fresh attack had briefly raised fears of another disruption. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to leave production quotas unchanged next month.

Brent Crude Volatile Above $102

TE Soft Index increased to 50.87 Index Points, the highest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, TE Soft Index gained 0.92%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 4.26%.

TE Soft Index Hits 4-week High

Wheat rose to around $6.9 per bushel in early October, extending its recovery from a more than one-year low reached on September 30, as renewed threats of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war fueled concerns over further disruptions to global grain supplies through the Black Sea. Over the weekend, the Russian government said its military would intensify strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in a message distributed by the Defense Ministry, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces would continue targeting Russian energy facilities, particularly oil refineries. Wheat supplies from the Black Sea, one of the world’s key grain-trading corridors, have been severely constrained since July, with any further escalation threatening to disrupt shipments and complicate Turkey’s efforts to keep the vital trade route open.

Wheat Rises as Black Sea Supply Risks Mount

US heating oil prices rose to around $4.58 per gallon, snapping a two-day decline and remaining close to the record $5.20, as the refined products market remained tight. EIA data showed US distillate inventories at historically low levels, while refinery maintenance and seasonal demand are expected to keep supplies under pressure. The supply squeeze was intensified by disruptions across major refining and exporting hubs. In the Middle East, attacks and logistical bottlenecks have reduced refining capacity and constrained diesel supplies, while in Russia, Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refinery operations and Moscow’s extension of diesel-export restrictions through October has further limited global availability. China also suspended fuel exports for October to preserve domestic inventories, removing another source of international supply. Meanwhile, the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, which could provide some relief.

Heating Oil Prices Rise

Copper futures climbed above $6.5 per pound on Monday, recovering some of last week’s losses as weaker-than-expected US jobs data reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. Higher interest rates would generally weigh on non-yielding assets such as commodities. Longer-term demand expectations tied to the global expansion of data centers and renewable energy also supported copper, although the near-term outlook remained pressured by signs of slowing industrial activity in top consumer China. On the supply side, Chilean production fell in August to its lowest level since February 2011, while workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine voted to strike after wage negotiations broke down. Elsewhere, the Trump administration has so far delayed a decision on tariffs for refined copper. Earlier threats of US tariffs on refined metals prompted traders to redirect shipments into American warehouses, helping drive a rally in copper prices.

Copper Rises as Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease

EU Carbon Permits decreased to 84.02 EUR, the lowest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, EU Carbon Permits lost 0.8%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.74%.

EU Carbon Permits Hits 4-week Low

US natural gas prices hovered around $3.02 per MMBtu on Monday, holding their recent gains amid expectations of cooler weather later this month that could lift heating demand. Forecasts turned cooler across the northern and western US for October 12-15, potentially increasing gas consumption. Robust LNG demand also continued to support the market, with feedgas flows to the nine major US export plants averaging 17.9 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August. At the same time, demand for US LNG from European and Asian buyers continued to rise as they sought to replenish storage ahead of winter. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report showed a 64 bcf storage build for the week ended September 25, below the five-year average increase of 80 bcf, indicating that the inventory surplus is gradually narrowing. Partly offsetting these factors, Lower 48 production remained solid, averaging a record 113.3 bcfd in September and matching the monthly record high set in August.

US Natural Gas Prices Hold Gains

Platinum futures rose above $1,700 an ounce, bouncing off from multi-week lows as softer US jobs data reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike this month. The US economy added fewer jobs than expected in September, while downward revisions to previous months pointed to a softer labor market, easing some pressure from higher interest rates and reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. However, the recovery remained restrained as the US dollar stayed firm and Treasury yields remained elevated, while higher oil prices continued to raise concerns over inflation. Meanwhile, platinum’s fundamentals remain mixed, with WPIC forecasting industrial demand to rise 5% in 2026, partly driven by AI infrastructure, but automotive demand is expected to fall 4%, leaving the market with a projected 265,000-ounce surplus. Over the longer term, demand will be underpinned by the rapid build-out of artificial intelligence.

Platinum Rises Above $1,700

Crude oil fell to around $90 per barrel on Monday, extending losses as signs of increasing global supply outweighed concerns over persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. On Friday, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves while pledging not to impose restrictions on energy exports. Major OPEC+ members also agreed over the weekend to keep production quotas unchanged next month amid prolonged supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, data showed Persian Gulf crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days during the final week of September, despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. In Yemen, Saudi-backed forces launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Houthis following weeks of escalating tensions between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia.

Crude Oil Slips as Supply Outlook Improves

Brent crude fell toward $101 per barrel on Monday, giving back some of last week’s gains as signs of increasing global supply outweighed concerns over persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. On Friday, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves while pledging not to impose restrictions on energy exports. Major OPEC+ members also agreed over the weekend to keep production quotas unchanged next month amid prolonged supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, data showed Persian Gulf crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days during the final week of September, despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. In Yemen, Saudi-backed forces launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Houthis following weeks of escalating tensions between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia.

Brent Slips as Supply Outlook Improves

Malaysian palm oil futures were little changed after recent weakness, with bargain hunters stepping in after prices hit their lowest since mid-July last week. Sentiment stayed fragile as futures held below MYR 4,500 per tonne, pressured by rising production, inventories seen topping three million tonnes, and sluggish exports. Cargo surveyors estimated September shipments fell 17.1%–28.8% mom, underscoring demand concerns. Chicago soyoil edged higher, while Dalian markets were shut for China’s Golden Week. Analyst Dorab Mistry expects prices to hover between MYR 4,500–5,000 through December, with elevated stocks capping gains despite El Niño-driven supply risks next year. In top buyer India, palm oil imports are set to remain steady in 2026/27 after a duty cut, while lower edible-oil tariffs ahead of the festive season may lift near-term demand. Still, weaker crude oil prices following a G7 stock release reduced palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock.

Palm Oil Steadies After Recent Losses

Corn futures fell below $5.0 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in six weeks, as larger-than-expected US inventories and weak export demand continued to pressure prices. The USDA reported US corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels as of September 1, up 35% from a year earlier and above the 1.924 billion bushels expected by markets. The data reinforced concerns over abundant supplies as the 2026 harvest progresses, with drier weather expected to allow fieldwork to accelerate across much of the Midwest. Export demand has also remained soft, with total US corn commitments for the 2026/27 marketing year at 18.774 million tonnes, 31% below the same period last year and 8% below the five-year average. The decline in prices also reflected broader weakness across grain markets as China excluded soybeans from proposed tariff reductions on US agricultural goods. A private sale of 218,600 tonnes of US corn to Mexico provided some support, including 173,800 tonnes for 2026/27.

Corn Futures Hit 6-Week Low

European natural gas prices climbed above €76/MWh on Monday, their highest level in two weeks, as ongoing security risks around the Strait of Hormuz continued to threaten LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. The waterway, which handled roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG trade before the war, has seen attacks on vessels in recent weeks, raising concerns over the security and reliability of shipping. While some Gulf LNG cargoes have transited the strait in recent weeks, volumes are still insufficient to fully relieve global supply tightness. In addition, QatarEnergy has recently extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison through December. Europe is racing to replenish reserves ahead of winter, with gas storage levels at around 72% of capacity, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%. With inventories lagging seasonal norms, any prolonged disruptions or a colder-than-expected start to the heating season could further tighten the market and drive prices higher.

European Gas Prices Rise to 2-Week High

Silver climbed above $61 an ounce on Monday, reversing the previous session’s losses as weaker-than-expected US jobs data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. Data released Friday showed the US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below expectations for a 90,000 increase, following a downwardly revised gain of 133,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth unexpectedly slowed to 3.0%, its weakest pace since May 2021. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% chance that the Fed will keep policy unchanged this month, while expectations for a December hike remained around 69%. Meanwhile, elevated Treasury yields continued to weigh on precious metals, with the US 10-year yield hovering near its highest level since 2002. Traders also faced heightened Middle East risks as Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.

Silver Gains as Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease

Gold climbed above $4,150 an ounce on Monday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses as weaker-than-expected US jobs data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. Data released Friday showed the US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below expectations for a 90,000 increase, following a downwardly revised gain of 133,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth unexpectedly slowed to 3.0%, its weakest pace since May 2021. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% chance that the Fed will keep policy unchanged this month, while expectations for a December hike remained around 69%. Meanwhile, elevated Treasury yields continued to weigh on precious metals, with the US 10-year yield hovering near its highest level since 2002. Traders also faced heightened Middle East risks as Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.

Gold Rises as Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease

Brent crude held steady above $102 per barrel on Monday as investors continued to monitor rising tensions in the Middle East, while OPEC+ agreed to maintain oil production quotas unchanged next month. Saudi-backed forces in Yemen launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Houthis following weeks of escalating tensions between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that Saudi Arabia had been using to export oil while avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, major OPEC+ members agreed over the weekend to leave production quotas unchanged next month amid prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict. The decision comes as oil prices climb back toward the $100-a-barrel level and diesel prices reach record highs at the pump, prompting G7 nations to release emergency oil reserves amid the continuing conflict.

Brent Steady as Traders Weigh Middle East Risks

Crude oil held steady near $91 per barrel on Monday as investors continued to monitor rising tensions in the Middle East, while OPEC+ agreed to maintain oil production quotas unchanged next month. Saudi-backed forces in Yemen launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Houthis following weeks of escalating tensions between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that Saudi Arabia had been using to export oil while avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, major OPEC+ members agreed over the weekend to leave production quotas unchanged next month amid prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict. The decision comes as oil prices climb back toward the $100-a-barrel level and diesel prices reach record highs at the pump, prompting G7 nations to release emergency oil reserves amid the continuing conflict.

Oil Steady as Traders Weigh Middle East Risks

Brent crude traded around $102 a barrel on Friday amid reports of additional US military deployments to the Middle East and China’s decision on Thursday to halt fuel exports this month. The US is reportedly sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the region, along with an amphibious force carrying 2,000 Marines, raising concerns over a potential escalation in the months-long conflict. The deployment comes as US President Donald Trump has signaled an intention to resume strikes on Iran after the November midterm elections. Meanwhile, China’s major refiners have suspended most refined fuel exports for October. However, a strong rebound in oil flows from the Persian Gulf has largely offset upward price pressures. Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered close to prewar levels, although uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations continues to cloud the outlook. The G7 have agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of diesel and crude stocks over the next four months.

Brent Volatile Amid Middle East Tensions

Crude oil trimmed losses to trade near $92 a barrel on Friday after reaching a one-month low of $88.06 earlier in the session, as G7 nations announced plans to release crude and diesel reserves to ease surging fuel prices. The G7 will deploy 100 million barrels of reserves over the next four months. G7 leaders also agreed to “refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries” and called on producers to avoid measures that could exacerbate market tensions, according to their joint statement. Meanwhile, crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf are at or near prewar levels, although volumes remain volatile. On the other hand, the US is reportedly sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, raising concerns over a potential escalation in the months-long conflict and renewed supply risks.

Oil Eases as G7 Plans Reserve Release

European natural gas prices staged a sharp afternoon recovery on Friday, reversing earlier losses to trade nearly 3% higher at around €75.80 per megawatt-hour. Prices had opened near €72/MWh before turning upward, as renewed concerns over supply security prompted traders to increase positions ahead of the weekend. Market attention remained focused on potential disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and continuing uncertainty over deliveries from Qatar. QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure on certain European LNG supplies, covering shipments into late in the fourth quarter, added to concerns about the availability of imported gas. The market is also facing the challenge of replenishing inventories before winter, with European storage facilities around 71% full, significantly below the five-year seasonal average of 87%.

European Natural Gas Prices Rise

The Trading Economics Crack Spread index, which tracks the spread between crude oil and refined products from the average US refinery, eased from its record high to $63 per barrel in October 2026, as the release of additional emergency reserves is expected to help ease refined-product prices. The Group of Seven nations are set to release emergency oil and diesel reserves, seemingly ending the threat from President Trump to ban diesel exports, which had been considered as surging fuel prices in the US and around the world squeeze businesses, farmers and households. Still, it remains nearly 170% higher than mid-February levels, before the US escalated threats of strikes. The conflict led to naval blockades on the Persian Gulf chokepoint, cutting off oil-product exports and supporting extraordinary profits for US refiners that are operating at full capacity.

Crack Spreads Ease From Record Highs

US gasoline futures fell below $3.30 a gallon, retreating further from its highest level in a week, following reports that Group of Seven nations will release emergency oil and diesel reserves. President Macron stated that G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves over the next four months to contain elevated energy prices. President Trump had threatened a diesel export ban otherwise, despite acknowledging its impact on gasoline prices, which have eased from recent peaks following the end of the summer driving season. Nevertheless, global fuel markets remain tight as EIA data showed that US gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended September 25th, while refinery utilization falling to 92.5%. Russia extended restrictions on most diesel exports through October, although it is considering a partial lift in case of overproduction as the domestic fuel market is reportedly balanced. China also extended its ban on some oil-product exports.

Gasoline Retreats Further

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was up for a second session on Friday, rising about 0.3% to 3,148 points, buoyed by the bigger-size segment. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, including iron ore and coal, also increased for the second session, advancing 0.6% to 5,042 points. On the other hand, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, fell by 0.3% to 2,372 points; and the supramax index decreased by 0.3% to 1,789 points. For the week, the benchmark index logged a 8.1% decline.

Baltic Dry Index Up for 2nd Day

US heating oil prices extended losses below $4.40 per gallon on Friday, the lowest in one month, after G7 agreed to consider releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves to ease fuel costs. The coordinated release is expected to take place over four months, French President Emmanuel Macron said. Macron indicated that the initiative aims to bring down prices following pressure from the Trump administration to address tightening fuel markets. Supply has been constrained by disruptions in the Persian Gulf, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Moscow’s extension of its diesel-export restrictions through October. In the US, EIA data showed distillate inventories at their lowest seasonal level on record.

Heating Oil Falls to 1-Month Low

Brent crude fell below $99 a barrel on Friday, after the Group of Seven agreed to consider releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves to ease fuel costs. The coordinated release, overseen by the International Energy Agency, is expected to take place over four months, French President Emmanuel Macron said. Macron indicated that the initiative aims to bring down prices following pressure from the Trump administration to address tightening fuel markets. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered close to pre-war levels, although uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to cloud the outlook. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern, with reported tanker attacks underscoring persistent shipping risks and the US strengthening air defences around energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Brent Falls Below $99

Crude oil fell around 5% to $88.50 a barrel on Friday, reaching a one-month low after the Group of Seven agreed to consider releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves to ease fuel costs. The coordinated release, overseen by the International Energy Agency, is expected to take place over four months, French President Emmanuel Macron said. Macron indicated that the initiative aims to bring down prices following pressure from the Trump administration to address tightening fuel markets. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered close to pre-war levels, although uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to cloud the outlook. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern, with reported tanker attacks underscoring persistent shipping risks and the US strengthening air defences around energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Crude Oil Slides to 1-Month Low

Orange Juice decreased to 139.85 USd/Lbs, the lowest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Orange Juice lost 9.81%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 39.74%.

Orange Juice Hits 4-week Low

Lumber futures fell to $527 per thousand board feet, reaching their lowest level in two years, as rising borrowing costs weighed on housing demand. Growing concerns over inflationary pressures and government debt have strengthened expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates and fueled a broader sell-off in the bond market, pushing sovereign yields to their highest levels in over two decades. As a result, mortgage rates climbed to 7.3%, their highest level in three years, further straining an already weak housing market. Although lacking any particular economic significance, economists refer to the 7% threshold as a psychological ceiling. Providing an offsetting pressure, Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood following US tariffs on several lumber-related goods. US forestry groups have long accused Canada of distorting the market, as Canadian forestland is largely publicly owned, allowing its lumber to be sold at lower prices.

Lumber Drops to Lowest Level in Two Years

Crude Oil decreased to 88.54 USD/Bbl, the lowest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Crude Oil lost 2.52%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 46.19%.

Crude Oil Hits 4-week Low

Silver rose above $61 an ounce on Friday after weaker-than-expected US employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth eased to 3.0%, its weakest level since May 2021. The softer labor-market data further reduced expectations of an October rate hike, with money markets pricing in less than a 15% chance of an increase this month, while the probability of a December hike remains above 70%. Expectations had already weakened following comments from Fed officials Philip Jefferson and John Williams, who called for more time to assess whether further rate increases are needed to contain inflatio

Silver Rises on Weak US Jobs Data

Gold climbed back above $4,200 an ounce on Friday after weaker-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations of 90,000, following a downwardly revised gain of 133,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth slowed unexpectedly to 3.0%, its weakest level since May 2021. The softer labor-market data has further reduced expectations of an October rate hike. Money markets are now pricing in less than a 15% chance of a rate increase this month, while the probability of a hike in December remains above 70%. Rate-hike expectations had already fallen following comments from Fed policymakers Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams, who indicated that policymakers should take more time to assess whether further rate increases are necessary to bring inflation under control.

Gold Rebounds Above $4,200 on Weak US Jobs Data

Arabica coffee futures surged to around $2.95 per pound, their highest since early September, partly due to quality concerns over Brazil's 2026 crop and uncertainty about the next season. Although Brazil is heading toward a record crop this year, recent heavy rainfall in the world's largest coffee producer not only delayed harvest but also affected the drying process of highest quality beans. This problem also means there will be less coffee availble to replenish depleted stocks in warewouses certified by the Intercontinetal exchange in both Europe and the US. Certified Arabica coffee stocks on ICE remain historically tight, hovering at a 27-year low in September before recovering somewhat.

Arabica Coffee Futures at Near 1-Month High

US gasoline futures fell below $3.35 a gallon, retreating from a one-week high, amid reports that EU countries are considering the release of diesel and oil reserves. European governments are discussing the French proposal following US pressure to ease elevated energy prices. President Trump has threatened a diesel export ban otherwise, despite acknowledging that such a measure could put upward pressure on gasoline prices, which have already eased from recent peaks following the end of the summer driving season. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended September 25, while refinery utilization stood at 92.5%. Global fuel markets remained tight as Russia extended restrictions on most diesel exports through October.  China also suspended oil-product exports to destinations beyond Hong Kong and Macau for October, with PetroChina canceling some gasoline and jet-fuel shipments, adding further pressure to global fuel supplies.

Gasoline Futures Retreat

US heating oil prices slipped below $4.50 per gallon on Friday, extending losses for the second session, as efforts to relieve a global fuel shortage raised hopes of improved availability. European Union members are discussing a proposal to release emergency oil and diesel reserves, following pressure from Washington to help stabilise prices and avoid restrictions on US fuel exports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged European partners to contribute, while President Donald Trump was less inclined to impose an export ban because of the risk of further domestic price increases. However, heating oil remains close to its mid-September record of $5.20 per gallon. In the US, EIA data showed distillate inventories at their lowest seasonal level on record. Supply has been constrained by disruptions in the Persian Gulf, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Moscow’s extension of its diesel-export restrictions through October.

Heating Oil Falls for 2nd Day

Crude oil fell nearly 4% to around $89 a barrel on Friday as European governments considered releasing strategic oil reserves to ease mounting fuel costs. EU members were reportedly discussing a French proposal to draw on crude and fuel stockpiles, amid growing pressure from Washington to address diesel shortages and avoid potential US export restrictions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged European partners to help stabilise supplies, which have been disrupted by turmoil in the Persian Gulf and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern crude flows have approached pre-war levels, though uncertainty persists as Washington and Tehran remain far from a lasting agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully. Also, shipping risks remain elevated following reported tanker attacks, while the US has reportedly strengthened air defences protecting energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Crude Oil Falls as Europe Considers Strategic Oil Reserve Release

Brent crude fell more than 3% to around $99 a barrel on Friday as European governments considered releasing strategic oil reserves to ease mounting fuel costs. EU members were reportedly discussing a French proposal to draw on crude and fuel stockpiles, amid growing pressure from Washington to address diesel shortages and avoid potential US export restrictions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged European partners to help stabilise supplies, which have been disrupted by turmoil in the Persian Gulf and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern crude flows have approached pre-war levels, though uncertainty persists as Washington and Tehran remain far from a lasting agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully. Also, shipping risks remain elevated following reported tanker attacks, while the US has reportedly strengthened air defences protecting energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Brent Falls as Europe Considers Strategic Oil Reserve Release

Zinc futures fell to $3,720 per tonne, their lowest level in six weeks, amid weak demand in China, while a stronger US dollar also weighed on sentiment. Shanghai Metals Market recently reported that orders at traditional galvanising plants remained weak and new orders were insufficient, while operating rates fell sharply around the holidays. The greenback also remained firm, reducing the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Still, zinc remained underpinned by tight supply conditions. China’s zinc production dropped for the first time in nearly a year in August amid smelter maintenance, mining disruptions and negative spot treatment charges. Output also declined at major mines such as Peru’s Antamina and Alaska’s Red Dog as producers work through lower-grade sections of their ore bodies. LME zinc inventories remain historically low, while tight physical availability is particularly evident across Western markets.

Zinc Falls to 6-Week Low

Crude oil fell below $92 per barrel on Friday after advancing for two consecutive sessions, as investors assessed the risk of renewed conflict between the US and Iran that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East. The Pentagon was considering deploying another aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, giving President Donald Trump additional options if he chooses to intensify attacks on Iran. Trump has reportedly told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. The renewed tensions come as crude flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to prewar levels, although markets remain uncertain whether the recovery can be sustained without a lasting agreement to end the conflict. At least three tankers were attacked this week while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and its Houthi allies have also targeted refineries across the region.

Oil Slips After Two-Day Advance

Brent crude fell below $102 per barrel on Friday after advancing for two consecutive sessions, as investors assessed the risk of renewed conflict between the US and Iran that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East. The Pentagon was considering deploying another aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, giving President Donald Trump additional options if he chooses to intensify attacks on Iran. Trump has reportedly told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. The renewed tensions come as crude flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to prewar levels, although markets remain uncertain whether the recovery can be sustained without a lasting agreement to end the conflict. At least three tankers were attacked this week while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and its Houthi allies have also targeted refineries across the region.

Brent Slips After Two-Day Advance

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline, lingering below MYR 4,550 per tonne at their lowest level since mid-July. For the week, futures are heading for a second straight weekly loss, down around 3.1% so far. Sentiment was pressured by rising inventories, with August stocks reaching an eight-month high and expected to surpass 3 million tonnes in September. Weak demand further weighed on sentiment, with cargo surveyors estimating a 17.1%-28.8% mom drop in palm oil exports for September. Meanwhile, China’s Dalian markets were closed for a Golden Week holiday, limiting trading cues. Still, losses were tempered by forecasts that palm oil imports by top buyer India will remain steady in the 2026/27 marketing year following an import-duty cut. Lower edible-oil duties ahead of the festive season could also support near-term demand. Elevated crude oil prices offered additional support amid persistent Middle East uncertainty, improving the appeal of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock.

Palm Oil Set for Second Weekly Drop as Supply, Weak Exports Weigh

Copper futures steadied around $6.52 per pound on Friday, but remained on track for a nearly 3% weekly decline as signs of weakening industrial activity in top consumer China weighed on the demand outlook. The metal also came under pressure from a stronger dollar, elevated bond yields and rising oil prices, as the risk of an escalation in the US-Iran conflict heightened concerns over inflation. Supply developments remained in focus, with Chilean output potentially disrupted by a strike at a site owned by Antofagasta Plc, while Panama’s government proposed resuming operations at a major mine in the country. Elsewhere, the Trump administration has so far postponed a decision on tariffs on refined copper. Previous threats of US tariffs on refined metals prompted traders to redirect shipments to American warehouses and helped fuel a rally in copper prices.

Copper Set for Weekly Drop

Palladium futures fell to around $1,170 per ounce, reaching a one-year low, pressured by a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields as investors awaited US payrolls data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The dollar climbed to a 17-month high, while 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2002, making dollar-priced metals more expensive for overseas buyers and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, expectations of weaker automotive demand and a shift toward a market surplus, amid declining gasoline vehicle production and higher recycling, have added to longer-term pressure on palladium prices. On the supply side, lower mine output, particularly from Russia, is expected to limit the downside, although increased recycling is likely to offset part of the decline. Year-to-date, palladium has dropped 28.40%.

Palladium Slides to 1-Year Low

European natural gas prices fell below €73/MWh on Friday, paring recent gains, as softer Asian LNG demand and higher US supplies offered some relief to the European market. US LNG exports rose to 10.9 million tonnes in September, with Europe receiving 5.91 million tonnes, or 54% of total shipments, as buyers refilled inventories ahead of winter. Meanwhile, weaker Chinese LNG demand could free up additional cargoes for Europe, easing competition for spot supplies. Still, EU gas storage is around 71% full, below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany’s inventories are just above 57%. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison until December, while some Qatar-linked LNG vessels have resumed transits through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. Low storage levels leave Europe more exposed to disruptions, as the prospect of renewed US military action against Iran raises concerns over flows through the key shipping route.

European Gas Prices Decline

Soybean futures fell to around $12.7 per bushel, nearing a five-week low as harvest pressure from an expected record-large US crop weighed on prices. A wet late summer and early autumn slowed the harvest pace, but the arrival of new supplies continued to pressure the market. The harvest was 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average, with the crop rated 58% good or excellent. Expectations of a weaker August soybean crush added pressure, with processors crushing 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate. Weak Chinese demand also weighed on prices as soybeans were excluded from China’s latest US agricultural tariff cuts and remain subject to an additional 10% tariff. Chinese crushers have covered much of their needs through early 2027 with South American supplies, while high inventories and weak margins limit fresh purchases. Still, US export demand remains firm, with weekly sales at 1.03 million tonnes for 2026/27, including 589,400 tonnes to China.

Soybeans Near 5-Week Low

Silver fell to around $60.5 an ounce on Friday and was set to lose nearly 6% for the week, pressured by higher oil prices amid concerns over a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The metal also faced headwinds from a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields as investors assessed the latest Federal Reserve commentary and awaited a key US jobs report. Oil prices rose as the US considered deploying an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Middle East, raising the risk of further disruptions to regional energy supplies and renewed inflation pressures. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to the September US jobs report, which could influence expectations for the Fed’s policy path. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers may need more time to determine whether further rate hikes are warranted. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 75% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.

Silver Heads for Weekly Decline

Gold prices slipped to around $4,150 an ounce on Friday and were headed for a second consecutive weekly decline, pressured by higher oil prices amid concerns over a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The metal also faced headwinds from a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields as investors assessed the latest Federal Reserve commentary and awaited a key US jobs report. Oil prices rose as the US considered deploying an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Middle East, raising the risk of further disruptions to regional energy supplies and renewed inflation pressures. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to the September US jobs report, which could influence expectations for the Fed’s policy path. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers may need more time to determine whether further rate hikes are warranted. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 75% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.

Gold Set for Weekly Drop

Brent crude traded above $102 per barrel on Friday after gaining for two consecutive sessions, as the US weighed sending another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, raising the prospect of an escalation in the war with Iran and further disruptions to regional energy supplies. The Pentagon is also considering the deployment of 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, giving President Donald Trump additional options if he decides to intensify attacks on Iran. Trump has reportedly told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. The renewed tensions come as crude flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to prewar levels, although markets remain doubtful that the recovery can be sustained without a lasting agreement to end the conflict. At least three tankers were attacked this week while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and its Houthi allies have also targeted refineries across the region.

Brent Holds Gains on Middle East Risks

Crude oil traded around $93 per barrel on Friday after gaining for two consecutive sessions, as the US weighed sending another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, raising the prospect of an escalation in the war with Iran and further disruptions to regional energy supplies. The Pentagon is also considering the deployment of 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, giving President Donald Trump additional options if he decides to intensify attacks on Iran. Trump has reportedly told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. The renewed tensions come as crude flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to prewar levels, although markets remain doubtful that the recovery can be sustained without a lasting agreement to end the conflict. At least three tankers were attacked this week while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and its Houthi allies have also targeted refineries across the region.

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