Brent crude hovered around $98 a barrel on Friday, paring earlier losses as investors weighed the risk of renewed US-Iran military escalation against prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. Investors are assessing whether the end of the US midterm elections could pave the way for renewed action against Iran, potentially threatening Middle East oil supplies. Iran reported attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, while UKMTO data indicated vessel attacks were continuing at a near-record rate. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution emerged after Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. Significant obstacles remain over Iran’s nuclear programme, with the US demanding that Iran give up its nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran demands the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent plunged over 12.5% for the week.

Brent Rebounds as Middle East Tensions Persist

Crude oil rose to around $91 a barrel on Friday, erasing earlier losses as investors weighed the risk of renewed US-Iran military escalation against prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. Investors are assessing whether the end of the US midterm elections could pave the way for renewed action against Iran, potentially threatening Middle East oil supplies. Iran reported attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, while UKMTO data indicated vessel attacks were continuing at a near-record rate. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution emerged after Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. Significant obstacles remain over Iran’s nuclear programme, with the US demanding that Iran give up its nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran demands the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Crude plunged nearly 12% for the week.

Oil Rebounds as Middle East Tensions Persist

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, advanced for a third session on Friday, rising by 2.4% to its highest since October 12 at 2,805 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, including iron ore and coal, also increased for third day, surging by 3.7% to a near one-month high of 4,344 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose by 2.4% to its highest since October 27 at 2,003 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell further by 0.5% to  its lowest since october 9 at 1,815 points.

Baltci Dry Index at Over 3-Week High

Rice prices have extended their rally, climbing above $17.9 per hundredweight to their highest level since June 2024, as upward momentum has gathered pace in recent months. Prices have surged more than 85% since the start of the year, driven by persistent concerns over tightening supply across major Asian producers. While the increase in new-season arrivals in India is improving domestic availability and providing some relief to export markets, supply prospects elsewhere remain uncertain. In particular, the developing El Niño phenomenon poses growing risks to rice production across Southeast Asia, with potentially erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells and irrigation constraints threatening planting schedules and crop yields.

Rice Futures at Near 2-1/2-Year High

Silver prices traded just below $52 an ounce on Friday as the US dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, comfortably above market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 4.1%. Employment figures for the previous two months were also revised upward by a combined 84,000. Further reinforcing the hawkish outlook, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, exceeding forecasts of 0.3%, while renewed gains in crude oil prices added to inflationary concerns. Silver was up more than 6% this week supported by broader safe-haven demand following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, which prompted investors to rotate out of AI stocks and seek defensive assets.

Silver Under Pressure on Rate Hike Bets

Gold prices fell toward $4,050 an ounce on Friday as the US dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%. Employment figures for the previous two months were also revised upward by a combined 84,000. Adding to the hawkish outlook, average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, exceeding forecasts of 0.3%, while a renewed increase in crude oil prices further fueled inflation concerns. Despite Friday’s pullback, gold remained up more than 4% for the week, supported by safe-haven demand following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, which prompted investors to rotate out of AI stocks and seek defensive assets.

Gold Retreats on Strong US Jobs Data

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.8 per pound, holding close to their lowest since September 24, pressured by expectations of increased Brazilian supply , with a subdued real further encouraging farmer selling. Coffee has been arriving rapidly from Brazil since mid-September, with ICE inventories of Brazilian coffee rising to a 9.25-month high of 83,678 bags by November 5. This is particularly important at a time when stocks remain at critically low levels. ICE reported that 55,396 bags of Brazilian coffee were awaiting grading at ICE warehouses, marking the highest level in seven weeks, suggesting certified stocks could rise further. Adding to the bearish outlook, consultancy Hedgepoint recently indicated that favourable rainfall and mild temperatures in September and October raised supply prospects for the 2027/28 crop. However, potential El Niño-related weather disruptions through early 2027 remain an upside risk to prices.

Arabica Coffee Futures Hover at Over 1-Month Lows

Cocoa futures eased to below $5,100 a tonne, reaching their lowest since early July, mainly pressured by rising inventories. ICE cocoa inventories have been rising since the start of the year, recently reaching a fresh 2.5-year high of 3,740,476 bags. Meanwhile, the market continued to closely monitor weather conditions in the top cocoa-growing region of West Africa. In top  producer Ivory Coast, October rainfall was irregular amid the influence of El Niño, arriving late and in insufficient amounts to support flowering and fruit development. Reuters, citing cocoa industry technicians and exporters, indicated that Ivory Coast's 2026/27 mid-crop harvest could plunge 42–50% yoy to 300,000–350,000 tonne. There are fears that Harmattan winds in December and January, coupled with the dry season lasting until March, will damage flowers and newly formed fruits. Meanwhile, hotter and drier conditions in neighbouring Ghana and Nigeria also threatened crop development.

Cocoa Futures Hits 4-Month Low

Wheat fell below $6.00 a bushel on Friday, reaching their lowest level since early July, as optimism over renewed peace efforts in the Black Sea region reduced the geopolitical risk premium. US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia are scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi, with technical teams from both countries and the US expected to participate. US President Donald Trump also suggested that the conflict could end soon following discussions with a Kremlin envoy, raising hopes for an agreement that could eventually restore grain shipments from the region, a major global agricultural supplier. However, the prospect of peace adds to existing downward pressure from strong global supply. Wheat prices have declined steadily since reaching a 3-1/2-year high of $7.67 on August 28, as production is expected to reach its second-highest level on record, supported by larger harvests in Australia and Argentina.

Wheat Falls to 4-Month Low

European natural gas prices fell 3.5% to €87.40/MWh on Friday, their lowest level in two weeks, extending weekly losses to around 16% amid growing hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. Sentiment improved after Qatar’s Emir discussed de-escalation efforts with US President Donald Trump, reinforcing optimism following the Democrats’ gains in the US midterm elections. However, prices remain well above their pre-war levels, as the disruption of Middle Eastern LNG exports, which previously accounted for around a fifth of global supply, leaves Europe facing a tight market ahead of winter. EU gas storage has fallen to 74%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s inventories are below 61%. Colder temperatures and weaker wind and solar generation have increased withdrawals, while Norwegian pipeline supplies remain constrained by outages. Competition for LNG is also expected to intensify as Asian buyers increase spot purchases.

European Natural Gas Prices Fall to 2-Week Low

Crude oil fell more than 1% to below $90 a barrel on Friday, extending weekly losses to more than 14%, the steepest decline since mid-April, as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East eased concerns over supply disruptions. US President Donald Trump discussed de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, while Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals from mediators concerning its nuclear programme. A potential resolution to the conflict could allow more crude exports from the region. However, significant obstacles remain, as Iran is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, attacks on oil-carrying vessels continue, with UKMTO data indicating that incidents remain close to record levels.

Crude Oil Extends Weekly Loss to Over 14%

Brent crude fell more than 1% to below $97 a barrel on Friday, extending weekly losses to nearly 15%, the steepest decline since March 2020, as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East eased concerns over supply disruptions. US President Donald Trump discussed de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, while Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals from mediators concerning its nuclear programme. A potential resolution to the conflict could allow more crude exports from the region. However, significant obstacles remain, as Iran is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, attacks on oil-carrying vessels continue, with UKMTO data indicating that incidents remain close to record levels.

Brent Crude Set for Biggest Weekly Drop since Covid

European natural gas prices climbed above €94/MWh on Friday, extending their rebound from a two-week low amid persistent supply concerns. While traders remain hopeful of a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war, an immediate deal remains uncertain, with key disagreements between the two sides still unresolved. Continued attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have also heightened concerns over Gulf LNG shipments, with the conflict disrupting nearly a fifth of global LNG supply. Europe’s energy balance remains tight ahead of winter, with EU gas storage at around 74%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s reserves have fallen below 61%. Colder weather, coupled with low wind and solar generation, has prompted early withdrawals from storage, while reduced Norwegian pipeline flows due to outages have added to supply concerns. Despite Friday's gains, prices are on track to drop by 9% this week, their first weekly decline in six weeks.

European Natural Gas Prices Extend Gains

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline, hovering below MYR 4,350 per tonne at their lowest level since March. Prices are poised for their deepest weekly drop in almost two years, pressured by plunging rival edible oil prices and record-high inventories. A sharp weekly drop in crude oil prices also weighed on sentiment, reducing palm oil's appeal as a biodiesel feedstock amid easing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Meanwhile, regional competition intensified as top supplier Indonesia cut its Nov. crude palm oil reference price by over 6% and lowered its export levy, making its supplies more competitive. Uncertainty over potential changes to Malaysia's CPO export tax further dampened sentiment. Still, the downside was partly cushioned by solid exports, with Oct. shipments surging 45.4%–73.5% from Sept. Palm oil imports by key buyer India also climbed to a 14-month high ahead of Diwali. Traders now await the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's monthly report, due Nov. 10.

Palm Oil Heads for Steepest Weekly Loss in Near 2 Years

Corn futures held below $4.40 per bushel, staying near their lowest level in three months, as expectations of ample US supplies and sluggish export demand continued to weigh on prices. The USDA's October forecast put 2026 production at 16.03 billion bushels, marking the second-largest crop on record, while the November 1 harvest was 74% complete, slightly behind the five-year average of 77%. Drier weather across much of the Midwest is expected to help farmers finish harvesting. Export demand also remained a concern, with US corn marketing-year commitments running 34% below the same period last year, although lower prices have recently encouraged fresh international buying. Meanwhile, stronger domestic demand offered some support, as US ethanol production rose for a fifth straight week to 1.143 million barrels per day in the week ended October 30, its highest since January. Traders now await the USDA's November WASDE report for updated estimates on production, demand and ending stocks.

Corn Holds at 3-Month Low

Platinum futures held above $1,500 an ounce after recovering from a one-year low, as a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields supported demand for non-yielding metals. The dollar and bond yields declined following the sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, as investors anticipated limits on government spending and a possible easing of Middle East tensions, which could help cool inflation. Still, concerns that tighter AI regulations could slow data center expansion triggered a sharp technology stock selloff, prompting some liquidity-driven selling in precious metals. Meanwhile, the automotive sector, a major source of platinum demand, faces pressure from weaker vehicle production, elevated financing costs and the gradual shift toward EVs, although growing hybrid production and continued demand for catalytic converters are helping cushion the decline. Industrial demand is expected to grow 5% in 2026, partly offsetting a projected 4% drop in automotive consumption.

Platinum Holds Rebound

Silver traded near $52 an ounce on Friday and was on track to gain more than 5% for the week following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Markets expect Democrats to push for an end to the Iran conflict, which could drive oil prices lower, ease inflationary pressures and reduce the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes. Investors also anticipate that a divided government could constrain President Donald Trump’s fiscal agenda, limiting additional government spending and borrowing while further easing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the global equity selloff intensified amid fears that Democrats could impose stricter regulations on the artificial intelligence industry and curb data center expansion, prompting some liquidity-driven selling in precious metals. However, these pressures were offset by stronger demand for safe-haven bonds, which pushed yields lower and supported demand for non-yielding assets such as silver.

Silver Poised for Weekly Rise

Gold climbed toward $4,100 per ounce on Friday and was on track to gain more than 5% for the week following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Markets expect Democrats to push for an end to the Iran conflict, which could drive oil prices lower, ease inflationary pressures and reduce the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes. Investors also anticipate that a divided government could constrain President Donald Trump’s fiscal agenda, limiting additional government spending and borrowing while further easing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the global equity selloff intensified amid fears that Democrats could impose stricter regulations on the artificial intelligence industry and curb data center expansion, prompting some liquidity-driven selling in precious metals. However, these pressures were offset by stronger demand for safe-haven bonds, which pushed yields lower and supported demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Gold Heads for Strong Weekly Gain

Brent crude traded at around $99 per barrel on Friday and was on track to post a weekly loss of about 13%, driven by optimism over a potentially quicker resolution to the Middle East conflict following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, although uncertainties persist. Democrats secured control of both houses of Congress, potentially limiting President Donald Trump’s support for the war against Iran. Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals submitted by mediators regarding its nuclear program, but maintained that the US naval blockade of its ports must be lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before it fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, at least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, highlighting continued risks to maritime shipping. Still, conditions have improved significantly, with Gulf crude exports recovering to near pre-war levels, although transportation costs remain elevated.

Brent Set for Sharp Weekly Decline

Crude oil traded at around $91 per barrel on Friday and was on track to post a weekly loss of about 12%, driven by optimism over a potentially quicker resolution to the Middle East conflict following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, although uncertainties persist. Democrats secured control of both houses of Congress, potentially limiting President Donald Trump’s support for the war against Iran. Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals submitted by mediators regarding its nuclear program, but maintained that the US naval blockade of its ports must be lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before it fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, at least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, highlighting continued risks to maritime shipping. Still, conditions have improved significantly, with Gulf crude exports recovering to near pre-war levels, although transportation costs remain elevated.

Oil Set for Sharp Weekly Decline

Copper decreased to 6.18 USD/Lbs, the lowest since July 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper lost 6.2%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 24.81%.

Copper Hits 17-week Low

Brent crude prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, gaining nearly 4% to around $98 a barrel after plunging more than 8% to a near two-month low in the previous session. Traders continued to assess whether the Democratic Party's gains in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran. Tehran is reviewing proposals delivered through regional mediators, although Washington and Tehran remain divided over the terms of a potential agreement. Meanwhile, shipping risks persist. At least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, with threats to commercial traffic continuing despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply conditions have improved considerably, with Gulf crude exports recovering towards pre-war levels, albeit at higher transportation costs. However, geopolitical risks surrounding these shipments remain unresolved.

Brent Rises as Middle East Supply Risks Persist

Crude oil prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, gaining nearly 3% to around $90.5 a barrel after plunging more than 8% to a near two-month low in the previous session. Traders continued to assess whether the Democratic Party's gains in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran. Tehran is reviewing proposals delivered through regional mediators, although Washington and Tehran remain divided over the terms of a potential agreement. Meanwhile, shipping risks persist. At least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, with threats to commercial traffic continuing despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply conditions have improved considerably, with Gulf crude exports recovering towards pre-war levels, albeit at higher transportation costs. However, geopolitical risks surrounding these shipments remain unresolved.

Oil Rises as Middle East Supply Risks Persist

Lumber futures fell below $526 per thousand board feet, moving back towards their lowest level in more than two years, as US-Canada trade talks revived expectations of a potential tariff deal. The Trump administration is seeking an agreement with Canada on trade barriers, including lumber tariffs. Removing these duties could increase US supply and weigh on prices. The US Commerce Department previously lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood to 24.75% from 35.16%, although a separate 10% tariff keeps the total rate at 34.75%. Meanwhile, prolonged trade barriers continue to weigh on the already weak US housing market, while mill closures across North America could tighten supply. Low prices and subdued demand may also prompt producers to cut output as profitability comes under pressure. Housing demand remains constrained by mortgage rates above 7%, high construction costs and labour shortages, although rates have declined for a third consecutive week.

Lumber Falls Toward 2-Year Low

US gasoline futures rose to $2.75 a gallon but remained near their lowest level since early March, as traders weighed tight fuel supplies against expectations of faster progress towards ending the US-Iran war. Iran reported that three tankers had been damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the risks to shipping through the vital waterway. Supply concerns were reinforced by EIA data showing US gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels in the week ending October 30th, leaving stocks persistently below their five-year average. An EIA report also pointed to an expected shift among US refiners away from gasoline towards middle distillates, including distillate fuel oil and jet fuel, as those carry more attractive prices. Seasonal refinery maintenance could further constrain gasoline supplies. However, a Democratic takeover of the US Congress raised the prospect of greater constraints on military escalation and renewed diplomatic efforts.

Gasoline Holds Near March Lows

Copper fell below $6.30 per pound, the lowest since July 17, as concerns over tighter regulation and opposition to AI data center projects raised doubts about future demand for the metal. Technology stocks plunged, with an ETF tracking US-listed semiconductor companies losing more than 12%, after Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. The political shift could increase scrutiny of data center development, potentially delaying or blocking infrastructure projects that had been expected to drive significant copper consumption. Democratic gubernatorial victories in several states, including Texas, could expose around half of proposed US AI data center additions to greater regulatory challenges. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has repeatedly called for an immediate moratorium on new data center projects. Copper reached a record high of $6.8 on September 10, partly on AI-related demand.

Copper Falls to 3-1/2-Month Low

US natural gas prices climbed above $2.98/MMBtu on Thursday, extending gains for a third consecutive session after EIA data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in inventories. Storage rose by 77 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended October 30, below forecasts for an 81 Bcf build, bringing total stocks to 3.801 trillion cubic feet. Inventories remained 2.8% below year-earlier levels but 1.4% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, domestic production has weakened, with output in the Lower 48 states averaging 111.2 Bcf per day so far in November, down from 113.4 Bcf in October. However, warmer-than-normal weather is expected to persist through November 20, limiting heating demand. Average gas flows to major US LNG export terminals have also eased to 18.2 Bcf per day, from 18.4 Bcf in October. Nevertheless, global demand for US LNG remains strong amid supply disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine and the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

US Natgas Prices Rise for 3rd Session

US heating oil futures rose above $4.30 per gallon, recovering from a five-week low of $4.20 reached on November 4, driven by tight supplies and geopolitical risks. Democrats’ victory in both chambers of Congress could give them greater influence over government spending and constrain President Donald Trump’s ability to pursue the conflict with Iran, although diplomatic progress remains limited. Supply concerns were reinforced by EIA data showing US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended October 30, leaving stocks 13% below the five-year average and at a record seasonal low. Meanwhile, Iran reported that a tanker had struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, while discussions with Oman aim to restore shipping. Additional pressure comes from Russia’s plan to extend its diesel export ban through January 2027, although some exceptions will remain.

US Heating Oil Rebounds from 5-Week Low

European natural gas prices rebounded to around €90/MWh from a two-week low of €88 on November 4, as persistent supply constraints continued to underpin the market. Despite the recent decline from record levels above €100/MWh, Europe’s energy balance remains fragile, with LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf still disrupted by the Iran conflict. Tehran reported that a tanker had struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, while discussions with Oman are underway to restore shipping traffic. The conflict removed nearly a fifth of global LNG exports, leaving European inventories unusually low ahead of winter and intensifying competition with Asian buyers. EU storage levels have fallen to 74%, compared with a five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s reserves are below 61%. Colder temperatures and weaker wind and solar generation have increased withdrawals. Also, Norwegian pipeline supplies remain below capacity due to outages.

European Natural Gas Prices Rebound from 2-Week Low

Rice increased to 17.75 USD/cwt, the highest since June 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 8.42%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 76.94%.

Rice Hits 28-month High

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was up for a second session on Thursday, rising by 1.7% to its highest since October 13 at 2,740 points, propelled by the larger vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, including iron ore and coal, also advanced for the second day, surging by 2.3% to a near one-month high of 4,191 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose by 3.3% to an over one-week high of 1,956 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell further by 0.6% to its lowest since October 12 at 1,824 points.

Baltic Dry Index Rises for 2nd Session

Silver rose more than 1% to around $53 an ounce on Thursday, extending its post-election rally as the US dollar remained near a one-month low and oil prices stayed below $100 a barrel, easing inflation concerns. The metal surged 5% on Wednesday, benefiting from falling energy prices, lower Treasury yields and easing concerns over inflation and interest rates. The unexpected Democratic takeover of both the House and Senate also weighed on the dollar and bond yields, reducing the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration and potentially limiting the risk of further escalation in the Iran war. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors are now awaiting Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

Silver Extends Post-Election Rally

Gold rose more than 1% to above $4,120 an ounce on Thursday, extending its post-election rally to the highest level since October 21. The advance was supported by a weaker US dollar, which remained near a one-month low, while oil prices stayed below $100 a barrel, easing inflation concerns. Bullion surged more than 3% on Wednesday, its sharpest daily gain since August 19, benefiting from falling energy prices, lower Treasury yields and easing concerns over inflation and interest rates. The unexpected Democratic takeover of both the House and Senate also weighed on the dollar and yields, as it reduces the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration and may limit the risk of further escalation in the Iran war. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report.

Gold Extends Rally to Two-Week High

Nickel increased to 16340.00 USD/T, the highest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Nickel gained 4.14%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 8.39%.

Nickel Hits 5-week High

Palladium increased 5.03% to 1053.5 USD/t.oz

Palladium is up by 5.03%

Brent prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, climbing to around $96.7 a barrel after plunging more than 8% in the previous session to a near two-month low. Traders continue to assess whether the Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran. US Vice President JD Vance said voter frustration over the conflict and the US relationship with Israel had contributed to the Republicans' electoral defeat. Ahead of the election results on Tuesday, President Trump said he had no immediate plans to escalate military strikes. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks to supply remain elevated despite a recovery in exports from Gulf producers. Adding to concerns, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that two oil tankers and a tugboat had caught fire in separate incidents after allegedly attempting to navigate unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent Above $96

Crude oil prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, climbing to around $89.50 a barrel after plunging more than 8% in the previous session to a near two-month low. Traders continue to assess whether the Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran. US Vice President JD Vance said voter frustration over the conflict and the US relationship with Israel had contributed to the Republicans' electoral defeat. Ahead of the election results on Tuesday, President Trump said he had no immediate plans to escalate military strikes. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks to supply remain elevated despite a recovery in exports from Gulf producers. Adding to concerns, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that two oil tankers and a tugboat had caught fire in separate incidents after allegedly attempting to navigate unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude Oil Rebounds from Near Two-Month Lows

Steel rebar futures climbed to around CNY 3,040 per ton, rebounding from near three-month lows as improving profit margins strengthened the market outlook. A broader risk-on sentiment across Chinese markets, driven by gains in equities, also provided support to steel prices. However, the World Steel Association recently revised its global steel demand forecast downward, now anticipating a 0.1% contraction this year, compared with its earlier projection of 0.3% growth made in April. The report indicated that China's steel consumption is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 as the downturn in the property sector persists longer than previously expected. In contrast, India continues to stand out as the fastest-growing major steel market, with demand projected to expand by 7.9% in 2026 and a further 8% in 2027.

Steel Rebounds from Multi-Month Lows

UK natural gas prices dropped to 211 pence per therm on Thursday, extending their losses to more than 18% so far this week and hovering at their lowest level in over two weeks. The decline reflects growing optimism over diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran war, with Qatar continuing to mediate between the two sides. A sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections also eased concerns about further military escalation, as the results could give Democrats greater influence over government spending, potentially limiting President Trump's ability to sustain military operations against Iran. The UK gas market remains vulnerable to fuel price volatility stemming from the war, while falling domestic production is further increasing its reliance on Norwegian pipeline supplies and global LNG imports. The country has a smaller buffer against winter supply shortages due to its limited storage capacity compared with its largest European neighbors.

UK Natural Gas Prices Extend Decline

Nickel traded around $16,100 per tonne, rebounding from near its lowest level since December 2025, as expectations of tighter Indonesian supply improved the longer-term outlook for the market. Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, is considering more aggressive production quota cuts for 2027 through its annual RKAB approval system, following concerns that excessive output has contributed to a global surplus of approximately 800,000 tonnes. The National Economic Council has also backed supply restrictions, while authorities indicated that future quotas would account for global market conditions and domestic smelter capacity. Additionally, potential production cuts by major producers, including Huayou and Tsingshan, could help moderate supply growth amid elevated exchange inventories. However, persistent oversupply, expanding downstream processing capacity, and slower-than-expected growth in battery demand continue to weigh on the market.

Nickel Rebounds From Near 10-Month Low

Zinc futures held above $3,800 per tonne, hovering near a one-month high amid tightening global mine supply and concerns over disruptions at major smelters. Operational incidents at Korea Zinc, Glencore’s Kazzinc and YoungPoong’s Seokpo smelter have raised concerns about potential supply losses, although the extent of their impact on refined zinc output remains unclear. Meanwhile, weaker Chinese zinc concentrate imports have tightened feedstock supplies, pushing treatment charges to record lows and prompting some smelters to scale back refined zinc production. Supply concerns have also intensified in Western markets, with uncertainty surrounding the future of Nyrstar’s loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands adding to concerns about the supply outlook. However, the prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness and limit price gains.

Zinc Hovers Near One-Month High

Iron ore futures advanced toward CNY 690 per ton, reaching their highest levels in four weeks as improving profit margins boosted market sentiment. Industry data showed that the average margin on imported iron ore turned positive during the latest period, rising from -CNY 3.09 per ton to CNY 2.36 per ton, mainly supported by slightly lower freight costs and higher spot prices at Chinese ports. Steelmaking margins have also improved recently, strengthening expectations of increased hot metal production in the coming weeks. However, signs of abundant global supply continued to weigh on the market, with combined output from 16 major mining companies increasing by approximately 22.98 million tons year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2026. On the demand side, an industry survey found that 17 blast furnaces across China underwent maintenance in October, reducing daily hot metal production by approximately 57,100 tons, with most of the affected facilities located in North China.

Iron Ore Hits Four-Week High

Wheat rose to $6 per bushel, recovering from a near four-month low hit on November 4, as a tight Russian export outlook heightened concerns over global supplies. IKAR slashed its 2026–27 wheat export forecast from 42 million to 39.5 million metric tons, according to Interfax. Total grain export estimates were similarly downgraded to 49.5 million tons, from 52.8 million. Ongoing logistical disruptions across key Black Sea export corridors have hampered shipments, forcing Russian exporters to increasingly rely on rail networks and Baltic ports to maintain trade flows. However, these alternative routes are nearing capacity, leaving limited room to offset further disruptions. Meanwhile, traders are watching next week's trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington for signs of progress toward ending the conflict, with any breakthrough potentially improving the outlook for global grain trade.

Wheat Rebounds on Dim Russian Export Outlook

Copper futures steadied around $6.40 per pound on Thursday, supported by strong physical demand from China, the world's largest copper consumer, as buyers compete for limited supplies and spot premiums continue to climb. Industry data showed that Shanghai's spot copper premium surged to 1,900 yuan per ton above futures prices on Wednesday, marking its highest level since 2021. The increase reflects production cuts by Chinese smelters, as rising ore costs and declining byproduct prices threaten to generate significant losses, alongside restricted imports from overseas suppliers, particularly Africa and Russia. Nevertheless, copper remains lower for the week amid a broader selloff in artificial intelligence-related stocks and concerns that Democratic control of the US Congress could affect future data-center investments. As a key material in the global AI expansion, copper is widely used in data centers, power grids and electrical infrastructure.

Copper Finds Support Amid Tightening Supply in China

Coal prices fell to around $145 per ton, pulling back from three-year highs as crude oil and LNG prices dropped sharply amid growing optimism that efforts to end the US-Iran conflict could gain momentum. The decline followed a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, which could limit military spending in the Middle East. President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war contributed to Republican losses, while stating that there were no immediate plans to intensify attacks on Iran. Coal had previously climbed to multi-year highs as elevated LNG prices linked to the Middle East conflict encouraged greater reliance on coal-fired power generation. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency projected in September that global coal demand would reach a record level this year, despite continued efforts to transition toward cleaner energy sources and the closure of numerous coal-fired power plants across Europe and North America.

Coal Declines Amid Weakness in Energy Markets

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline, remaining below MYR 4,500 per tonne and notching their lowest level since June. A stronger ringgit and weakness in Dalian and Chicago edible oils rattled sentiment, alongside expectations that October stockpiles reached a fresh record after September’s peak. Lower crude oil prices also weighed on demand prospects, as a Democratic sweep in the US midterms fuelled expectations of greater pressure on President Trump to seek a resolution to the Iran conflict, reducing palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Competitive pressure increased after Indonesia cut its November CPO reference price by 6.07% to USD 978.90 per tonne and lowered its export levy, boosting the attractiveness of its supplies. Still, losses were partly capped by solid demand, with October exports surging  45.4%-73.5% from September. Meanwhile, palm oil imports in top buyer India climbed to a 14-month high ahead of Diwali.

Palm Oil Hits Lowest Since June Amid Mounting Pressure

US natural gas prices slipped to around $2.94 per MMBtu on Thursday after two consecutive sessions of gains, as traders awaited the latest weekly storage report. Milder weather and subdued demand have allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage, with analysts expecting inventories to reach 1.4% above normal in the week ended October 30, up from 1.0% in the previous week. Forecasts call for above-average temperatures across much of the country through November 19, likely keeping heating demand subdued over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, LNG export activity has weakened, with average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export terminals falling to 18.1 bcfd so far in November, down from 18.4 bcfd in October. However, declining domestic production helped limit the losses, with output across the Lower 48 states averaging 111.2 bcfd so far this month, down from 113.4 bcfd in October.

US Natural Gas Prices Slip Ahead of Storage Data

US gasoline futures fell to around $2.70 per gallon, hitting their lowest level since early March, as expectations of faster progress toward ending the US-Iran war weighed on prices. Democrats' victory in both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections raised the prospect of greater constraints on military escalation and renewed diplomatic efforts. Adding to bearish pressures, Energy Secretary Wright said the administration is working with refiners to boost output and restart idled facilities, noting that prices peaked in September and should decline further. However, supply conditions remained tight as EIA data showed that US gasoline inventories fell by 222 thousand barrels in the week ending October 30th, leaving it 2% below the five-year average. Seasonal refinery maintenance and a shift toward diesel production ahead of winter could also constrain gasoline supply.

Gasoline Hits 8-Month Low

European natural gas prices fell to €85/MWh on Thursday, extending their losses to about 18% so far this week and hovering at their lowest level in over three weeks. The decline reflects growing optimism over diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran war, with Qatar continuing to mediate between the two sides. A sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections also eased concerns about further military escalation, as the results could give Democrats greater influence over government spending, potentially limiting President Trump's ability to sustain military operations against Iran. However, supply tightness persists, as LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf remain disrupted. The bloc is entering winter with its lowest gas storage levels in more than a decade, with inventories standing at 74.33% of capacity as of November 4 and well below the minimum target of 80%. Meanwhile, forecasts of colder temperatures across Northwest Europe are likely to boost heating demand.

European Natural Gas Prices Drop Further

US heating oil futures dropped to around $4.17 per gallon, reaching their lowest level since late August, as expectations of faster progress toward ending the US-Iran war weighed on prices. Democrats’ victory in both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections raised the prospect of tighter constraints on military spending and renewed efforts to reach a peace deal. Meanwhile, the US Energy Department plans to loan 300,000 barrels of fuel oil from its emergency Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to four companies to ease supply constraints and curb prices ahead of winter. The volume represents nearly a third of the reserve, with deliveries due by November 6. The companies must return the same amount with an additional premium before next year's heating season. However, supply remains tight, as US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended October 30, leaving them 13% below the five-year average.

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