Ethanol increased to a 17-week high of 2.415 USD/Gal

Ethanol Hits 17-week High

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, was down for a second day on Friday, down 1% to its lowest since March 9th at 1,389 points. The capesize index, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes carrying commodities such as iron ore and coal, lost 11 points to 1,665 points; and the supramax index fell about 3.2% to 1,198 points. Meanwhile, the panamax index, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased 10 points to 1,635 points. The benchmark index was down 6.7% for the week, its biggest dip since the week ended February 17th; but advanced 128.4% for the month, to post its second monthly rise in a row.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index at Over 3-Week Low

Steel rebar futures rose to the CNY 4,175 per tonne mark, extending their rebound from the one-month low of CNY 4,085 touched on March 24th as hopes of stronger demand added to expectations of low supply. The latest PMI data showed the Chinese manufacturing sector expanded faster than anticipated in March, prolonging the strong momentum from February and underpinning hopes of higher demand from the world's top consumer. Demand was also driven by the PBoC's decisions to inject liquidity and reduce its reserve requirement ratio to support fragile credit in the country's debt-ridden construction sector. Meanwhile, Reuters reports indicated top producer China was set to cut output by 2.5% in 2023, the third consecutive year of slashes amid higher pressure to reduce carbon emissions.

Steel Extends Rebound

Silver futures were trading near $24.0 per ounce on Friday, their highest in nearly two months, as fears about the recent banking system crisis receded after rescue and liquidity measures from authorities. Meantime, the Federal Reserve signaled a final one-quarter-point interest rate increase in its tightening cycle. Limited supplies of the precious metal provided an almost 3.5% gain for the week and over 14% advance for the month.  Traders now anticipate the release of US core PCE data for clues on how the Fed’s next move. 
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Silver Trades Near $24.0

Malaysian palm oil futures declined to below MYR 3,750 per tonne mark after four days of gains, amid profit-taking and a strong ringgit. Meantime, India's palm oil imports in February dropped 30% from January to their lowest in 8 months, on weak demand amid a build-up in stocks because of excessive imports during November-January.  Still, the benchmark contract was set for a rise weekly, amid expectations of higher exports. Data compiled by cargo surveyors showed shipments of Malaysian palm oil products increased between 11.4% to 19.8% month-over-month during the first 25 days of March. Meantime, rival Indonesia has restricted shipments until the end of Ramadan month and the Eid celebration to support domestic demand.

Palm Oil Falls

Gold steadied around $1,980 an ounce on Friday and was set to gain more than 8% in March, as investors wagered that interest rates have likely reached near their peak in this tightening cycle. Such expectations were driven by easing global inflationary pressures and efforts by major central banks to avoid a broader banking crisis. The recent banking turmoil which started with the collapse of two regional lenders in the US also spurred safe-haven demand for gold this month. On the monetary policy front, the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike at its March meeting and hinted at just one more rate increase. Meanwhile, money markets are currently pricing a 40% chance that the central bank will pause its rate hikes in May, with rate cuts expected by year’s end. Traders now look ahead to core US PCE data for clues on the Fed’s next move as well as remarks from several Fed officials.

Gold Set for Large Monthly Gain

Brent crude futures traded around $78.5 per barrel on Friday and were headed for the second straight weekly advance, underpinned by supply concerns and an improving demand outlook. A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey tightened the market this week, and seemed unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia also said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the banking turmoil. On the demand side, investors remain optimistic about China’s recovery, with PetroChina and Cnooc Ltd. saying a rebounding domestic economy can help cushion the impact of slower global growth. Meanwhile, markets continued to assess the likely direction of central bank monetary policy in light of the recent banking crisis.

Brent Heads for 2nd Straight Weekly Gain

WTI crude futures traded around $74.5 per barrel on Friday and were headed for the second straight weekly advance, underpinned by supply concerns and an improving demand outlook. A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey tightened the market this week, and seemed unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia also said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the banking turmoil. On the demand side, investors remain optimistic about China’s recovery, with PetroChina and Cnooc Ltd. saying a rebounding domestic economy can help cushion the impact of slower global growth. Meanwhile, markets continued to assess the likely direction of central bank monetary policy in light of the recent banking crisis.

Oil Heads for 2nd Straight Weekly Gain

US natural gas futures were trading around the $2.1/MMBtu mark, the lowest since September 2020, pressured by persistently weak demand due to above-normal temperatures and ample inventories. Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1.853 trillion cubic feet on March 24, according to the EIA, 442 bcf higher than last year at this time and 321 bcf above the five-year average of 1.532 tcf. Meanwhile, natural gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas became operational again. Still, Freeport LNG unexpectedly canceled some cargoes due to issues with one of the plant's three liquefaction trains, sparking some worries that it could take longer than the company expects to return to full service.

US Natural Gas Futures Hover at 30-Month Low

Wind Energy Index increased to a 5-week high of 305.64 USD

Wind Energy Index Hits 5-week High

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, decreased by 0.3% to 1,403 on weak demand for smaller vessels. The supramax index fell by 3.7% to 1,237, the biggest daily percentage decline since January 13. On the other hand, demand for larger vessels continued to increase. The capesize index, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes carrying commodities such as iron ore and coal, rose 0.8% to 1,676; and the panamax index, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, advanced 1.7% to an over 1-week high of 1,625. Looking ahead, some analysts pointed to the Japanese steel sector to be one of the main drivers for the capesize and panamax segments in the coming quarters.

Baltic Index Edged Down

Lithium carbonate prices in China tumbled 55% year-to-date to CNY 260,000 per tonne in late March, the lowest in 15 months, as robust output and a pullback in demand continued to support forecasts of a supply surplus this year. After subsidizing battery manufacturers and granting cash rewards to new electric vehicle purchases in 2022, China halted incentives for the new energy auto sector and catalyzed a decline in demand for battery inputs. The overproduction of batteries at the end of 2022 to take advantage of subsidies drove battery producers to have unsustainably high inventories and prompted the sale of goods at a steep discount with sharp capacity cuts in all streams of the supply chain. Meanwhile, 8.5 million tons of lithium, equivalent to 10% of the current world reserve, were found in a deposit in Iran. The bearish pressure in the near term persisted due to the EU’s decision to phase out carbon-emitting cars by 2035.

Lithium Slides 55% Year-to-Date

WTI crude futures were trading around the $74 per barrel mark on Thursday as signs of a recovery in demand offset a smaller-than-expected drop in Russian supplies. The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 7.489 million barrels last week, the most since November last year, defying expectations for a 0.092 million barrel rise. On top of that, a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey. Keeping a lid on prices were reports that Russia's crude production has fallen by about 300,000 barrels a day in the three weeks of March, roughly 200,000 barrels less than the targeted cuts. In other related news, Dated Brent, the energy industry's most important benchmark, will be changed to include crude supplies from west Texas into the basket.

Crude Oil Regains Some Traction

Brent crude futures were trading around the $79 per barrel mark on Thursday as signs of a recovery in demand offset a smaller-than-expected drop in Russian supplies. The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 7.489 million barrels last week, the most since November last year, defying expectations for a 0.092 million barrel rise. On top of that, a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey. Keeping a lid on prices were reports that Russia's crude production has fallen by about 300,000 barrels a day in the three weeks of March, roughly 200,000 barrels less than the targeted cuts. In other related news, Dated Brent, the energy industry's most important benchmark, will be changed to include crude supplies from west Texas into the basket.

Brent Crude Hovers Around $79

Steel rebar futures rose to around CNY 4,165 per tonne mark, rebounding from the one-month low of CNY 4,085 touched on March 24th amid expectations of lower supply and the prospects of China’sreopening. Reuters said top producer China is set to cut output by 2.5% this year, the third consecutive year of production cuts as the economy aims to reach peak carbon emissions by around 2030. The reduction in output coincides with projections of robust demand, as the PBoC injected more liquidity and reduced its reserve requirement ratio to support fragile credit from the debt-ridden construction sector. The central bank will provide 60% of the loan principal made by commercial banks for carbon-emission cuts, with a one-year lending rate of 1.75%. Limiting the rebound, China's National Development and Reform Commission issued more warnings against speculatory rises in iron ore prices, easing pressure from expensive inputs.

Steel Rebar Bounces Back from 1-Month Low

Rubber futures rose to three-week peaks of 135.5 USD Cents / Kg as traders weighed supply concerns and expectations of strong demand recovery from top buyer China. Recent data showed Malaysia's natural rubber production plunged 39.3% in January 2023 from 48,546 tons in the same month last year. The International Rubber Consortium said continued supply tightness is set to support natural rubber prices in the first half of 2023. Output is expected to decrease in the major producing countries, including Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, due to the spread of leaf disease and adverse weather conditions, namely drought. Meanwhile, China recently announced it would make efforts to stabilize automobile and consumer electronics consumption and expand home appliances and green building materials consumption.

Rubber Hits 3-Week High

Silver increased to a 7-week high of 23.517 USD/t.oz

Silver Hits 7-week High

Gold steadied around $1,965 an ounce on Thursday after falling in the prior two sessions, as investors continued to monitor risks to the global financial system. US banks' top regulator who appeared before Congress this week indicated that failures at Silicon Valley Bank were due to poor risk management, rather than broader systemic across the financial sector. Meantime, the White House reportedly is preparing for federal banking regulators to impose new rules on mid-size banks. Traders now look ahead to core US PCE data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move as well as remarks from several Fed officials.

Gold Steady Ahead of US Key Inflation Data

Brent crude futures fell below $78 per barrel on Thursday, sliding for the second straight session after official data showed that US demand for distillates dropped to the weakest seasonal level since 2016, suggesting the economy may be slowing. Still, the report showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 7.5 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 0.09 million barrel rise. The UK oil benchmark also remains up about 4% this week as a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey, tightening the market. Moreover, OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the banking turmoil. Meanwhile, investors remain optimistic about China’s recovery, with PetroChina and Cnooc Ltd. saying a rebounding domestic economy can help cushion the impact of slower global growth.

Brent Pressured by Demand Concerns

WTI crude futures fell toward $72.5 per barrel on Thursday, sliding for the second straight session after official data showed that US demand for distillates dropped to the weakest seasonal level since 2016, suggesting the economy may be slowing. Still, the report showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 7.5 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 0.09 million barrel rise. The US oil benchmark also remains up about 5% this week as a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey, tightening the market. Moreover, OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the banking turmoil. Meanwhile, investors remain optimistic about China’s recovery, with PetroChina and Cnooc Ltd. saying a rebounding domestic economy can help cushion the impact of slower global growth.

Oil Pressured by Demand Concerns

Gasoline futures traded below $2.7 per gallon, as concerns about a global recession and muted global oil prices offset growing demand. Gas demand has been surging, nearing seasonal trends, as drivers take advantage of longer days at the beginning of spring. According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas demand increased from 8.960 million to 9.145 million b/d last week. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 2.904 million bbl to 226.694 million bbl last week, the lowest since the end of last year.

Gasoline Futures Edge Down

Brent crude futures were trading around the $79 per barrel mark on Wednesday, rising for the third consecutive session on signs of a recovery in demand and tight global supplies. The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 7.489 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 0.092 million barrel rise. On top of that, a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey. Furthermore, OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the turmoil in the banking sector. More forward-looking signals from markets are optimistic, with China's crude oil imports expected to rise 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes, an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp showed.

WTI crude futures were trading around the $74 per barrel mark on Wednesday, rising for the third consecutive session on signs of a recovery in demand and tight global supplies. The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 7.489 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 0.092 million barrel rise. On top of that, a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey. Furthermore, OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the turmoil in the banking sector. More forward-looking signals from markets are optimistic, with China's crude oil imports expected to rise 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes, an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp showed.

Crude Oil Rises for Third Session

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, went up 5 points from a near 3-week low to 1,407 on firm demand for larger vessels. The capesize index, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes carrying commodities such as iron ore and coal, rose 1% to 1,662, after an 8.3% decline the day before. The panamax index, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, climbed 2.4% to 1,598, recovering from nine consecutive sessions of losses. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index decreased 30 points to 1,285.

Baltic Index Edge Up from 3-Week Low

Wheat futures rose past $7.1 per bushel, bouncing off the 20-month low of $6.6 touched on March 23rd as expectations of soaring supply eased. Fresh data from Ukrainian authorities showed grain exports fell by 18% annually since the start of the 2022/23 marketing year, reflecting a smaller harvest and logistical issues due to the Russian invasion. Still, hopes for a rebound in shipments from the leading producer persisted after Kyiv and Moscow confirmed the extension of the deal that guarantees free passage for grain shipments from Black Sea ports. Also, a report from the US government indicated an improvement in the condition of the domestic winter wheat crop and added to projections of strong supply. Elsewhere, major exporter Russia harvested a record-high 153.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2022, driving farmers to turn to international customers to empty silos. Russia is estimated to sell up to 60 million tonnes of wheat on foreign markets in the current marketing year.

Wheat Rebounds from 20-Month Low

Soybeans futures traded around $14.7 per bushel, above a 4-month low of $14.2 on concerns over crop losses in drought-hit Argentina. Buenos Aires grains exchange maintained its 2022/2023 soybean production forecast at 25 million tonnes, following sharp cuts, and warned of the possibility of further cuts, as the crop continues to be battered by a prolonged drought. In Brazil, trade group Anec estimated soy exports at 15.197 million tonnes in March, below the 15.388 million tonnes forecast in the previous week. Other data showed that European Union soybean imports in the 2022/23 season reached 8.69 million tonnes by March 26.

Soybeans Futures Hold Above 4-Month Low

Prices for iron ore cargoes with a 63.5% iron ore content for delivery in Tianjin rose above $124 per tonne, recovering slightly from the two-month low of $122 touched on March 23rd, buoyed by expectations of stronger demand as top consumer China enters the spring construction season. Tight supply also supported prices, as poor weather in major producer Brazil limited exports and pressured Chinese stockpiles to their lowest since February. Still, expectations of weaker demand in the long term constrained the rebound. Reports indicate that top producer China will cut its domestic steel output by 2.5% in 2023, marking the third consecutive annual decline.

Iron Ore Rebounds from 2-Month Low

Malaysian palm oil futures climbed above the MYR 3,700 per tonne mark, recovering from a five-month low of nearly MYR 3,500 on March 24th, buoyed by brisk export demand and supply restrictions. Data compiled by cargo surveyors showed exports of Malaysian palm oil products increased between 11.4% to 19.8% month-over-month during the first 25 days of March. At the same time, rival Indonesia has restricted shipments until the end of Ramadan and the Eid celebration to support domestic demand. On top of that, Jakarta has launched mandatory biodiesel with higher palm oil content, raising the need for blenders and decreasing the supply of cooking oil. Further, the El Nino weather pattern, predicted to emerge in mid-2023, could reduce Malaysia and Indonesia's output next year.

Palm Oil Prices Scale MYR 3,700

Steel rebar futures rose to approach the CNY 4,150 per tonne mark, rebounding from the one-month low of CNY 4,085 touched on March 24th amid expectations of lower supply, as investors continued to assess prospects of the recovery of China’s economy. Reports from Reuters indicated that top producer China is set to cut output by 2.5% this year, marking the third consecutive year of production slashes amid higher pressure to reduce carbon emissions. The reduction in output coincides with projections of robust demand, as the PBoC injected more liquidity and reduced its reserve requirement ratio to support fragile credit from China’s debt-ridden construction sector. Limiting the rebound, China's National Development and Reform Commission issued more warnings against speculatory rises in iron ore prices, easing pressure from expensive inputs.

Steel Rebounds form 1-Month Low

Silver futures were trading around $23.3 per ounce on Wednesday after easing to $22.9 in the prior session, trying to reach again their highest level in nearly two months, as the dollar index fell further amid easing fears over global banking turmoil. Meantime, the Federal Reserve signaled a final one-quarter-point interest rate increase in its tightening cycle. Elsewhere, a probe into tax fraud and money laundering found major French banks suspect of dividend stripping, adding to the confidence crisis in the European banking sector. On the supply side, steady outflows in bullion inventories supported the metal's price.

Silver Prices Inch Higher

Gold steadied near $1,970 an ounce on Wednesday, pausing a recent rally as fears of a wider banking contagion abated, hurting demand for safer assets. The market cheered news that First Citizens BankShares agreed to buy all deposits and loans of failed Silicon Valley Bank. Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision Michael Barr also told lawmakers that SVB’s troubles were due to “terrible” risk management, suggesting it could be an isolated case. Meanwhile, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in May, as the central bank balances the ongoing battle against inflation with efforts to prevent the banking crisis from spreading further.

Gold Steadies as Banking Concerns Ease

Brent crude futures climbed above $79 per barrel on Wednesday, rising for the third straight session after API data showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 6.1 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 180,000 barrel rise. A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from the Ceyhan port in Turkey also added to supply worries. Moreover, OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the turmoil in the banking sector. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country should increase exports to "friendly" countries, noting that supplies to India jumped to levels not seen in over two decades. China's crude oil imports are also expected to rise 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes, an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp showed.

Brent Climbs Higher on US Stockpile Draw

WTI crude futures climbed toward $74 per barrel on Wednesday, rising for the third straight session after API data showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 6.1 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 180,000 barrel rise. A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from the Ceyhan port in Turkey also added to supply worries. Moreover, OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the turmoil in the banking sector. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country should increase exports to "friendly" countries, noting that supplies to India jumped to levels not seen in over two decades. China's crude oil imports are also expected to rise 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes, an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp showed.

Oil Climbs Higher on US Stockpile Draw

Natural gas decreased 6.77% to 1.9466 USD/MMBtu

Natural gas is down by 6.77%

Sugar increased to a 4-week high of 21.4 USd/Lbs

Sugar Hits 4-week High

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, declined 3.7% to 1,402, the lowest since March 9. The capesize index, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes carrying commodities such as iron ore and coal, tumbled 8.3% to 1,646, its biggest drop since February 16. There were reports that a reduction of iron ore imports due to a cut in China's steel production could leave some large dry bulkers under utilized. The panamax index, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, edged down 0.3% to 1,561, its lowest since March 2. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index decreased 11 points to 1,315.

Baltic Index Falls to Near 3-Week Low

Gold prices pared early losses to hover above the $1,960 mark on Tuesday, trimming the 1% drop in the prior session as the dollar softened and investors continued to monitor risks to the global banking sector. A probe into tax fraud and money laundering found major French banks suspect of dividend stripping, adding to the confidence crisis in the European banking sector and increasing demand for safe-haven precious metals. The closure of major US lenders and the collapse of Credit Suisse earlier in the month triggered investors to pile on safe-haven assets, lifting gold prices to a one-year high of over $2,000. Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve also supported bullion prices. In its latest meeting, the FOMC projected a single quarter-point increase remaining in its hiking campaign, despite higher inflation and lower unemployment rate forecasts, underscoring greater caution amid the current fragility of the global financial sector.

Gold Pares Losses on Tuesday

Brent crude futures held steady at around $78 per barrel on Tuesday as investors continued to balance the demand-supply outlook. OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the turmoil in the banking sector. At the same time, sanctions on Russia created uncertainty about supply. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country should increase exports to so-called "friendly" countries, noting that supplies to India jumped to levels not seen in over two decades. Meanwhile, a legal dispute with Iraq halted around 450,000 barrels a day of oil exports from the Ceyhan port in Turkey, tightening global markets. More forward-looking signals from markets are optimistic, with China's crude oil imports expected to rise 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes, an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp showed.

Brent Crude Hovers Around $78

WTI crude futures held steady at around $73 per barrel on Tuesday as investors continued to balance the demand-supply outlook. OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the turmoil in the banking sector. At the same time, sanctions on Russia created uncertainty about supply. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country should increase exports to so-called "friendly" countries, noting that supplies to India jumped to levels not seen in over two decades. Meanwhile, a legal dispute with Iraq halted around 450,000 barrels a day of oil exports from the Ceyhan port in Turkey, tightening global markets. More forward-looking signals from markets are optimistic, with China's crude oil imports expected to rise 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes, an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp showed.

Oil Prices Steady

Urea futures were steady at $380 per tonne through March, close to their lowest since May 2021, as European natural prices dropped and provided cheap feedstock. The increased availability of natural gas in Europe amid the moderate winter and abundant LNG imports enabled manufacturers to expand production and farmers to restock reserves. In the meantime, major importer India continued to buy Russian fertilizers at discounted prices after the Kremlin snubbed European exports, freeing the flow from the Middle East to Eurasia. Additionally, high inventories in Brazil cut the demand for one of the world’s leading agricultural producers. Previously, shortages of energy feedstock in Europe drove fertilizer plants to shut down or operate well below capacity, which sent urea prices to a record $1050 per tonne in April.

Urea Hovers Steady at 22-Month Low

Russian Urals oil futures traded at over $52 per barrel, rebounding from the two-year lows of $48.4 touched on March 20th as eased concerns about banking sector turmoil supported crude oil benchmarks worldwide. Moscow’s efforts to restore oil revenues after sweeping sanctions from the West also underpinned the Russian reference brand, as Urals oil traded at its lowest discount to Brent since June 2022. Shunned demand from Europe made Russian oil more attractive for Asian buyers, with shipments to India surging by four times in March 2023 compared to the prior year. Also, China’s economic recovery magnified expectations of higher demand in the world’s second-largest economy. To add, Moscow stated it would slash crude oil output by 500,000 barrels per day from March to June in response to Europe’s and the G7’s oil embargo. The move aims to increase the revenues from oil shipments as the country faces an unsustainably wide current account deficit.

Urals Oil Rebounds from Over 2-Year Low

Lumber futures dropped below the $400 per thousand feet mark, not far from an almost three-year low of roughly $340 reached on March 14th, as prospects of higher interest rates continued to depress real estate activity. Stubbornly high inflation and a still-tight labor market have raised concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated even after the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Nevertheless, tight supplies and signs of a demand recovery have helped limit the downside. Last year, a sharp drop in prices and sluggish demand forced North American producers to curb output, leaving inventories low and sparking concerns about a supply shortage during the spring and early summer construction season. The critical building commodity remains roughly 80% off its May 2021 peak of around $1,700, when supply chain issues compounded strong demand.

Lumber Struggles for Traction

Nickel futures were trading around the $23,000 per tonne mark, not far from a five-month low of $22,000 reached on March 22nd, pressured by soaring global production and concerns about persistently weak demand. The latest data from the International Nickel Study Group showed a massive 22% year-on-year jump in January for global nickel production, driven by continued increases in Indonesian output. The agency also noted that, at the current pace, mined nickel production is likely to exceed 3.2 million tonnes per year. Indonesian output grew by almost 50% from a year earlier to 1.58 million tonnes in 2022, accounting for nearly 50% of the global supply, pushing the global nickel market into surplus last year. On the demand side, while China is reopening and several processing companies are ramping up production, worries about a demand-sapping global recession continue to keep investors on edge.

Nickel Prices Remain Subdued

Arabica coffee futures in the US were around $1.8 per pound at the end of March, after touching three-week highs last week, as traders monitor the supply outlook. Fresh data showed Ivory Coast exported 2,786 tonnes of coffee beans in January and February, up about 29% from a year earlier. On the other hand, ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3-1/4 month low of 749,933 bags. Also, the International Coffee Organization projected the global 2022/23 coffee market deficit for a second year, due to arabica crop woes in Latin America's top producers. Dealers said poor crop in Colombia last year, the lowest since 2013, has helped tighten supplies, while a prolonged dry spell in Brazil late in 2022 has dented the outlook for the upcoming crop from the world's top exporter.

Coffee Prices Fall from 3-Week Highs

Silver futures eased to $22.9 per ounce from the nearly two-month high of $23.2 touched on March 27th as economists vouched for the stability of major US and European lenders, easing demand for the safe-haven in bullion. Still, a dovish Federal Reserve and limited supplies of the precious metal provided a 10% advance since the start of the month. The Fed signaled a final one-quarter-point interest rate increase in its tightening cycle, underscoring the FOMC's caution due to recent stress in the US financial sector. On the supply side, steady outflows in bullion inventories supported the metal's prices, fueling concerns about low silver availability.

Silver Eases from 2-Month High

Gold prices were slightly down to $1955 an ounce level on Tuesday, after falling 1% the day before, and remaining below a one-year high of above $2,000 touched last week, as concerns about the banking crisis eased and risk appetite improved. Yesterday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said First Citizens BancShares Inc would acquire Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans. However, the price of gold is up 7% this month, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the recent banking turmoil in the US and Europe raised fears of an economic recession.

Gold Prices Falls for 2nd Day

Malaysian palm oil futures increased to over MYR 3,650 per tonne mark on Tuesday after falling to a five-month low of below MYR 3,600 last week. The upturn was supported by stronger March exports so far, with data compiled by cargo surveyors showing exports of Malaysian palm oil products rose between 11.4% to 19.8% month-over-month during the first 25 days of February.  Meantime, its rival, Indonesia placed export restrictions until the end of the holy month of Ramadan and the Eid celebration to support domestic demand. At the same time, Jakarta launched mandatory biodiesel with higher palm oil content, which increases demand for blenders and decreases the supply of cooking oil. Further, the El Nino weather pattern, that predicts to emerge in mid-2023, could reduce production in Malaysia and Indonesia next year.

Palm Oil Rises from 5-Month Low

Steel rebar futures rose to CNY 4,138 on Tuesday, trying to recover from their lowest in one month touched last week, amid expectations of more activity in infrastructure and construction in China following fresh liquidity injections and the cut in the reserve ratio by the PBoC. Meantime, industrial production growth was slightly below estimates for January and February, but investors were optimistic about strong investment growth. China's state planner issued another warning against speculation in the market and fresh production curbs was imposed in major Chinese steel cities, while National Development and Reform Commission said it would look yet again at measures to curb "unreasonable" iron ore prices and urged trading firms to avoid hoarding and inflating prices. China is considering slashing its crude steel output by about 2.5% this year, but some officials said the cut was too high as the economy was still recovering. The target was expected to be set before the end of June.

Steel Attempts to Rise from 1-Month Low

Brent crude futures held around $78 per barrel on Tuesday after jumping more than 4% in the previous session, as a legal dispute halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from the Ceyhan port in Turkey, tightening the market. Sentiment also got a boost from positive newsflow surrounding the banking sector, raising hopes that the worst of the recent banking turmoil may be over. Expectations that the Federal Reserve would end its tightening campaign soon and optimism around China’s demand recovery supported prices as well. Still, the international oil benchmark traded near its lowest levels since December 2021 as growing fears of a US recession and resilient Russian supply weighed on the market. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is forecasting Brent to break below $60 per barrel in the near term, as reported by Bloomberg.

Brent Holds Advance on Supply Concerns

WTI crude futures held around $73 per barrel on Tuesday after jumping more than 5% in the previous session, as a legal dispute halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from the Ceyhan port in Turkey, tightening the market. Sentiment also got a boost from positive newsflow surrounding the banking sector, raising hopes that the worst of the recent banking turmoil may be over. Expectations that the Federal Reserve would end its tightening campaign soon and optimism around China’s demand recovery supported prices as well. Still, the US oil benchmark traded near its lowest levels since December 2021 as growing fears of a US recession and resilient Russian supply weighed on the market. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is forecasting Brent to break below $60 per barrel in the near term, as reported by Bloomberg.

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