Wheat futures climbed over 1% to surpass $5.10 per bushel on Wednesday, marking their first gain in three sessions, as bargain-hunting emerged following recent price declines. However, the modest rally was tempered by improved weather conditions across the U.S. crop belt, where crucial rainfall alleviated supply concerns. According to consultancy Agritel, the significant improvement in U.S. winter wheat conditions is putting downward pressure on the market. This pressure is further reinforced by forecasts of beneficial rainfall in the southern Great Plains, a key wheat-growing region. These weather-related developments have tempered investor enthusiasm despite the recent dip in prices. As a result, while wheat futures experienced a slight rebound, broader market factors continue to limit stronger upward movement.

Wheat Future Rebound after 3-Day Losses

Brent crude oil futures fell nearly 1.8% to settle at $63.1 per barrel on Wednesday, posting their sharpest monthly drop since late 2021 with a 15% decline amid mounting concerns over a global supply glut and weakening demand. Prices were pressured by Saudi Arabia’s signal to increase production and recapture market share, while OPEC+ is reportedly weighing additional output hikes at its May 5 meeting, stoking fears of a renewed price war. Trade tensions between the US and China further clouded the demand outlook, compounded by a first-quarter contraction in the US economy and a sharp drop in consumer confidence. Despite the bearish sentiment, a surprise drawdown in US crude inventories—down 2.7 million barrels last week—helped limit further losses.

Brent Logs Steep April Loss

WTI crude oil futures sank 3.7% to settle at $58.20 per barrel on Wednesday, posting their sharpest monthly drop since late 2021 with an 18% decline amid mounting concerns over a global supply glut and weakening demand. Prices were pressured by Saudi Arabia’s signal to increase production and recapture market share, while OPEC+ is reportedly weighing additional output hikes at its May 5 meeting, stoking fears of a renewed price war. Trade tensions between the US and China further clouded the demand outlook, compounded by a first-quarter contraction in the US economy and a sharp drop in consumer confidence. Despite the bearish sentiment, a surprise drawdown in US crude inventories—down 2.7 million barrels last week—helped limit further losses.

Oil Posts Sharpest Monthly Drop Since 2021

Palladium futures in the US fell to $920 per ounce in April, a 10% drop on the month, amid a pessimistic economic backdrop among major auto consumers. The outlook for auto demand came under pressure after tariff exchanges between the US and China hampered expectations on the output of new autos, the main industrial use of palladium due to their inclusion in catalytic converters in internal combustion engines. Autos were also targeted directly in US tariffs on the European Union, a major exporter of autos to North America, although measures were later paused for 90 days. Adding to the bearish pressure, the increasing market share of new energy vehicles in China magnified the poor momentum for ICE producers, lowering palladium bidding. The latest data showing that Chinese ICE sales were only have of total auto demand for February, compared to nearly 70% in the corresponding period of last year.

Palladium Down 10% In April 2025

Copper futures sank to $4.55 per pound on Wednesday from four-week highs of $4.9 earlier in the week as low demand and ample supply were magnified by the unwinding of arbitrage traders in China. The NBS manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly sank to a 16-month low as export orders plunged the most since 2022. This reflected US consumers' reluctance to maintain supply chains after President Trump escalated tariffs on China to 145% on top of previous levies. Exports of goods had been a relief for Chinese manufacturers and copper smelters, as poor domestic demand drove firms to offload their goods on foreign markets. Ample ore output from South America amplified the backdrop of oversupply, with the International Copper Study Group doubling its forecast on this year's surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Consequently, increasing risks of a glut drove Chinese traders to close long positions on US copper futures, which were mostly open after Trump announced a probe to tariff copper imports.

Copper Extends Plunge

Sugar futures extended their decline, trading near 17 cents per pound, a level not seen since mid-2021, ahead of the May contract expiry.  The market is bracing for a significant delivery of about 2 million metric tons, primarily from Brazil’s Centre-South region, which is weighing on prices. Additionally, Conab's April 29 estimate of a record 45.87 million tons of sugar production in Brazil for the 2025/26 cycle, a 4% increase from the previous cycle, further intensifies the downward momentum. In the meantime, industry group UNICA reported that Brazil's Centre-South region produced 731,000 metric tons of sugar in early April, up 1.25% year-on-year and exceeding analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, favorable weather conditions in India are expected to boost crop yields, contributing to the downward trend in prices. Sugar prices have fallen significantly since the start of the U.S.-China trade conflict, driven by concerns over global demand.

Sugar Futures at Near 4-Year Low

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, eased for a second day on Wednesday, falling 12 points to 1,386 points, amid lower rates across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which transports 150,000-ton cargoes like iron ore and coal, decreased 17 points to 1,961 points; and the panamax index, which usually tracks vessels carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grains, eased 9 points to 1,380 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index declined for the third session, shedding 10 points at 957 points. For April, the index declined about 13.3%.

Baltic Dry Index Falls for 2nd Day

U.S. heating oil futures tumbled toward $2.03 per gallon, nearing their almost three-year low of $2.00 set on April 8th, amid a broader energy market selloff as investors recalibrated expectations for demand. Erratic U.S. tariff actions have amplified fears of a global economic slowdown, particularly after the latest U.S. GDP data showed a 0.3% annualized contraction in the first quarter—marking the first decline since 2022—driven by surging imports and a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. Heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers, have fueled further concerns over future energy demand. On the supply side, EIA data revealed a nearly one-million-barrel build in distillate inventories, sharply contrasting with expectations for a 1.7-million-barrel draw, while heating oil stocks also posted a quarter-million-barrel increase for the week ending April 25th, pressuring heating oil prices lower.

Heating Oil Near Multi-Year Lows

Sugar decreased to a 30-month low of 17.43 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 7.27%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.06%.

Sugar Hits 30-month Low

Silver prices trimmed earlier losses to trade near $32.60 per ounce, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP report for Q1 2025 fueled renewed recession fears amid ongoing trade tensions. The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, missing expectations for 0.3% growth, in large part due to a more than 40% spike in imports, as businesses and consumers stockpiled goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes from the Trump administration. Separately, the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by just 62,000 in April, well below forecasts of 115,000 and the weakest gain since July 2024. Further dampening sentiment, China’s manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in April, pointing to softer industrial demand. On the trade front, while Washington and Beijing have signaled openness to de-escalation amid mounting economic fallout, formal negotiations remain uncertain.

Silver Cuts Losses as US GDP Data Disappoints

Gold pared some losses but remained 0.7% lower around the $3,290 mark, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP report for the first quarter reignited fears of a looming recession in the world’s largest economy amid ongoing trade tensions. The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% between January and March, missing forecasts for 0.3% growth, largely due to a more than 40% surge in imports as consumers and businesses rushed to stockpile goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes from the Trump administration. Separately, the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by just 62,000 in April—well below the expected 115,000 and the lowest since July 2024. Despite today's decline, gold remains on track for a fourth straight monthly gain—up over 6%—having repeatedly hit record highs in recent weeks driven by mounting concerns over global trade disruptions and growing signs of economic strain in the U.S.

Gold Cuts Losses After Weak U.S. Data

Lithium carbonate prices fell to below CNY 68,000 per tonne, their lowest in over four years, as supply continued to outpace demand. Sales of new energy vehicles in China rose by 38% annually to 991,000 in March according to the China Passenger Car Association, but missed the entity's expectations of 1,000,000 in despite ongoing government subsidies that promote vehicle exchanges and energy transition technologies. The data was in line with recent trends that China's EV market has not grown at the pace expected following the boom at the turn of the decade, resulting in subsidies for battery producers by Beijing that triggered a surge in output and a supply glut. Consequently, battery inventories are set to remain elevated as EV manufacturers display no rush for new deals. Still, supply is not expected to slow at the market pace since lithium miners refrain from closing operations to retain market share and business relationships with governments and battery producers.

Lithium Extends Drop to Over 4-Year Low

Uranium futures rose to $67 per pound, gaining some traction after hovering at the eighteen-month-low of $64 though March and April as markets assessed the stress to domestic mining capacity amid the risk of tariffs on key suppliers to the US. The slow and unclear progress in trade talks by the US government raised the likelihood that utilities and enrichers will have to pay duties on yellowcake and nuclear fuel, stressing the limited domestic capacity. The US imports a large portion of its yellowcake from Kazakhstan, which faces reciprocal tariffs of 27%, while imports from Canada face a softer 10% levy. In the meantime, markets reconsidered their speculative positions on nuclear power demand for US datacenters following the emergence of more efficient large language models in Europe and China. Consistently, Microsoft reportedly canceled leases on new datacenters, marking a contrast with the view that tech giants were racing to secure new power capacity.

Uranium Extends Rebound from 18-Month Low

Newcastle coal futures rose to $97 per tonne, rebounding from the four-year low of $93.7 from April 23rd as risks of lower supply from Australia momentarily offset the bearish pressure from ample Asian output and poor demand. Key producer Whitehaven noted that adverse weather in the March quarter hampered export activity later in April, halting the slide in Australian thermal coal. Still, futures remained over 20% down year-to-date. A warmer winter in China limited power-hungry heating demand and thermal coal exports. This magnified the 1.3% annual drop in output by Chinese fossil-fuel power plants in the first two months of the year. Additionally, Indonesian production hit a record 836 million tonnes last year, exceeding its initial target by 18% even though growing investments in alternative power sources capped the demand for thermal coal. Further, China plans to boost output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons this year after the record amount of output in 2024.

Thermal Coal Edges Higher from 4-Year Low

Iron ore futures in China fell to CNY 705 per tonne, not far from the six-month low of CNY 690 touched on April 8th as data showed that tariffs from the US already impacted factory and construction activity in China. The NBS PMI in China fell to a 16 month low in April, well below forecasts, as new export orders plunged the most since 2022. The signals extended concerns that poor consumer demand would continue pressuring property prices, risking the liquidation of developers and removing a large source of demand for global steel. Pessimism in the manufacturing front also contributed to the bearish pressure on iron ore as factories relied on foreign markets to meet sales targets last year. The Chinese government noted that overcapacity for steel mills may warrant output cuts in 2025, pressuring ore bidding from furnaces. Still, crude steel output in China rose by 3.6% annually to 93 million tons in March.

Iron Ore Tests 6-Month Low

Steel rebar futures in China were at CNY 3,050 per tonne, trading at a tight range since the seven-month low of CNY 3,017 on April 22nd as lower trade flows dampened the outlook for ferrous metal demand. The NBS PMI suggested that Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly sank in April as the exchange of tariffs between Beijing and Washington drove export orders to fall to an over two-year low. The poor consumer signals extended the risk that property prices may continue to fall and maintain pressure on balance sheet of debt-ridden developers, risking their liquidation and removing a large source of demand for global rebar. Adding to the bearish pressure, crude steel output in China rose by 3.6% annually to 93 million tons in March despite Beijing's signal that it would cut capacity. Despite the drop in prices, ferrous metals held their ground better than base metals as stimulus outlook is expected to target housing demand, with the construction PMI remaining in the positive territory.

Steel Rebar Holds Close to 7-Month Low

Copper futures sank to $4.6 per pound on Wednesday after testing four-week highs of $4.9 earlier in the week, as the threat of tariffs by the US already hit global manufacturing demand. The official manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly sank to a 16-month low in April as export orders for the sector plunged the most since 2022, reflecting US consumers' reluctance to maintain supply chains after President Trump escalated tariffs on China to 245%. Exports of goods had been a relief for Chinese manufacturers and copper smelters, as poor domestic demand drove firms to offload their goods on foreign markets. Still, further declines were capped by supply worries stateside. Trump launched a probe to tariff copper imports, which would stress the limited smelting capacity and raise bidding competitions. The threat widened the premium of copper futures in the US against comparable contracts in the LME, reigniting the surge in the metric after its volatility earlier in April.

Copper Plunges from Recent Peaks

Copper is down by 2%

Silver prices stabilized around $32.90 per ounce on Wednesday, following recent volatility as investors awaited clarity on US-China trade relations and key US economic data. While it remains uncertain whether formal negotiations are ongoing, both Washington and Beijing have signaled a willingness to ease tensions amid growing concerns over the trade war’s economic fallout. Adding to the cautious sentiment, Chinese manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in April, suggesting slowing industrial demand. Meanwhile, markets are bracing for the release of the March PCE price index—seen as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—alongside preliminary first-quarter US GDP data, both of which could influence the Fed’s policy outlook.

Silver Prices Stabilize

Copper futures fell over 1% to around $4.75 per pound on Wednesday, extending declines from the previous session as persistent trade tensions between the US and China continued to pressure market sentiment. Uncertainty remains over whether the two countries are actively engaged in negotiations, though both have expressed openness to de-escalation amid rising concerns about the economic fallout of the trade dispute. Adding to the bearish tone, recent data showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in April, reflecting the impact of trade-related headwinds on production. Looking ahead, investors are closely watching upcoming economic growth figures from the US and Eurozone for further clues on the health of global demand and industrial activity.

Copper Extends Losses Amid US-China Trade Uncertainty

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 3,920 per tonne, falling for a third session amid ongoing concerns over rising production and stockpiles. Traders also reacted to fresh April Manufacturing PMI data from key buyer China, where the official reading showed the sharpest drop in over a year, as new U.S. tariffs began to weigh on the economy. In the broader energy market, crude oil prices extended losses, burdened by concerns that U.S. trade policies could slow global growth and hurt demand. Still, downside was capped by signs of strong exports, with cargo surveyor data showing a 13.8%–14.8% rise in shipments during April 1–25 from the prior month. In India, palm oil demand may rebound after five months of subdued buying, as price corrections prompted refiners to rebuild stocks. Meantime, India’s vegetable oil industry urged authorities to widen the import tariff gap between crude and refined oils, potentially lifting demand for crude palm oil and supporting international prices.

Palm Oil Drops for 3rd Session

Gold extended its recent decline to below $3,310 per ounce on Wednesday, as easing concerns over the impact of US tariffs reduced demand for safe-haven assets. On Tuesday, President Trump signed executive orders aimed at preventing new duties on foreign-made cars from compounding existing tariffs, while also reducing levies on imported auto parts used in US manufacturing. Additionally, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reported progress in trade negotiations with an undisclosed country. Nevertheless, gold is on track for its fourth consecutive monthly gain—up over 6%—after repeatedly reaching new highs during the period. The rally has been fueled by ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade tensions, particularly US-China trade relations, along with growing concerns over economic strain in the US. Strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, robust central bank purchases, and signs of speculative demand in China have further supported the upward trend.

Gold Extends Decline

Brent crude oil futures dropped toward $63 per barrel on Wednesday, falling for the third consecutive session and hovering near a two-week low, as uncertainty over shifting global policies continued to weigh on demand outlook. Oil is also on pace for a monthly loss of over 15%—its steepest decline since November 2021. Erratic US tariff moves have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, especially amid the ongoing tit-for-tat tariff exchanges between the US and China, fueling a trade war between the world’s two largest oil consumers Further dampening market sentiment, US consumer confidence fell sharply, signaling growing economic strain, while OPEC+ may consider accelerating its planned production increases at its May 5 meeting. API data also revealed that US crude inventories rose by 3.76 million barrels last week—well above the expected 390 thousand barrel build.

Brent Drops for Third Day

WTI crude oil futures dropped toward $60 per barrel on Wednesday, falling for the third consecutive session and hovering near a two-week low, as uncertainty over shifting global policies continued to weigh on demand outlook. Oil is also on pace for a monthly loss of over 15%—its steepest decline since November 2021. Erratic US tariff moves have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, especially amid the ongoing tit-for-tat tariff exchanges between the US and China, fueling a trade war between the world’s two largest oil consumers Further dampening market sentiment, US consumer confidence fell sharply, signaling growing economic strain, while OPEC+ may consider accelerating its planned production increases at its May 5 meeting. API data also revealed that US crude inventories rose by 3.76 million barrels last week—well above the expected 390 thousand barrel build.

Oil Drops for Third Day

Lead increased to a 4-week high of 1983.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Lead lost 1.76%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 10.62%.

Lead Hits 4-week High

Milk increased to a 4-week high of 18.34 USD/CWT. Over the past 4 weeks, Milk lost 6.48%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 12.44%.

Milk Hits 4-week High

HRC Steel decreased to a 9-week low of 855.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Hot-Rolled Coil Steel lost 1.57%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.75%.

HRC Steel Hits 9-week Low

Wheat futures fell toward $5 per bushel, levels not seen since August 2024, as favorable weather across key U.S. growing regions supported expectations for a strong harvest. Timely rainfall in states like Kansas and North Dakota helped ease earlier concerns over crop stress, pressuring prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties, including ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, added to market caution. In Russia, a recent cold spell raised concerns over potential crop damage, but these were largely offset by increased export activity, easing fears of global supply disruption. Additionally, diplomatic efforts by the U.S. to stabilize the situation in Ukraine also contributed to calming supply-side worries. Despite some supportive developments, traders remained wary, weighing improved growing conditions against broader global risks.

Wheat Prices Resume Falling

Canola futures have eased to below CAD 680 per tonne, down from the November 2023 high of CAD 697 hit on April 25th, as abundant supplies and softer demand has offset underlying biodiesel support. Generous spring rains and accelerated planting across the U.S. Plains have swelled wheat and barley stocks, encouraging crushers to blend in cheaper feed grains and erode rapeseed crush margins. At the same time, Europe’s upward revision of Russia’s winter-rapeseed crop by over one million tonnes has inflated global carryover. Meanwhile, Chinese processors—after front-loading canola oil and meal to beat hefty tariffs—are now drawing down stockpiles rather than replenishing them, further curbing export demand. Although U.S. biodiesel mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard continue to underpin domestic crush, this flood of competing oilseeds has outweighed that support, leaving canola prices under sustained pressure.

Canola Eases From Multi-Year High

Cocoa futures dropped below $9,000 per tonne, hitting their lowest level since April 21, as concerns over the mid-crop in top producer Ivory Coast eased. On April 28, farmers reported that above-average rainfall across most of the country’s key cocoa-growing regions last week is expected to support the development of the April-to-September mid-crop. With cloudy weather forecasted for this week, additional rain is anticipated next week, further benefiting crop growth. Farmers noted that regular rainfall through May will help nurture young cherelles and small pods, which are expected to be ready for harvest in August and September. Meanwhile, latest data showed ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports climbed to a 6-1/2 month high of 1,987,423 bags as of April 28.

Cocoa Futures at Over 1-Week Low

Rapeseed decreased to a 5-week low of 475.00 EUR/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Rapeseed lost 0.62%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 12%.

Rapeseed Hits 5-week Low

Brent crude oil futures dropped over 2% toward $64 per barrel, a two-week low, extending a 1.5% loss in the previous session, as global trade tensions and weak US data dampened the demand outlook. Brent is on track for its steepest monthly decline since 2021, down 14% in April, as fears grow that President Trump’s escalating tariffs could push the global economy into recession. US consumer confidence slumped, adding to signs of economic strain. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may accelerate its planned output hikes at its May 5 meeting, with Saudi Arabia and others expected to boost supply. Kazakhstan increased oil exports by 7% year-on-year to 1.63 million barrels per day in Q1, helped by rising flows through the Caspian pipeline. Also, hopes for a return of Iranian oil have also resurfaced amid progress in nuclear talks and a temporary truce in Russia’s war on Ukraine was announced, set to begin May 8.

Brent Crude Oil Falls by Over 2%

WTI crude oil futures dropped over 2% to below $61 per barrel, a two-week low, extending a 1.5% loss in the previous session, as global trade tensions and weak US data dampened the demand outlook. Crude is on track for its steepest monthly decline since 2021, down 15% in April, as fears grow that President Trump’s escalating tariffs could push the global economy into recession. US consumer confidence slumped, adding to signs of economic strain. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may accelerate its planned output hikes at its May 5 meeting, with Saudi Arabia and others expected to boost supply. Kazakhstan increased oil exports by 7% year-on-year to 1.63 million barrels per day in Q1, helped by rising flows through the Caspian pipeline. Also, hopes for a return of Iranian oil have also resurfaced amid progress in nuclear talks and a temporary truce in Russia’s war on Ukraine was announced, set to begin May 8.

Oil Falls for 2nd Session

US gasoline futures fell to $2.07 per gallon, a two-week low, as weaker oil prices and trade tensions weighed on demand outlook. Oil dropped amid fears that the global trade war, driven by President Trump's broad tariff plans, could tip the world into recession. Slowing economic data in the US added to concerns. Meanwhile, signs point to OPEC+ potentially accelerating planned output hikes at its May 5 meeting, adding further pressure. In Asia, Chinese fuel imports fell sharply by 29% in February, highlighting reduced demand amid escalating trade tensions with the US.

Gasoline Futures Fall to 2-Week Low

Cotton futures have been easing to trade around 66 cents per pound, their lowest since April 21, weighed down by a stronger dollar and improving supply expectations. Favorable weather in Texas, where two-thirds of growing areas saw rainfall, supported better U.S. crop conditions. At the same time, StoneX revised Brazil’s 2024/25 cotton output upward to 3.78 million tons, driven by higher projected yields in Mato Grosso. Still, persistent trade-related uncertainties are clouding the demand outlook.

Cotton Futures at Over 1-Week Low

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, snapped its five-day winning streak on Tuesday, falling about 0.4% to 1,398 points, amid lower rates across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which transports 150,000-ton cargoes like iron ore and coal, eased two points to 1,978 points; and the panamax index, which usually tracks vessels carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grains, decreased six points to 1,389 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell 8 points to 967 points. "We anticipate that the supply and demand balance for the dry bulk market this years will be weaker compared to 2024. The demand for iron ore and coal is expected to remain weak, and the outlook for minor bulks has deteriorated following the US tariff increases," said BIMCO's Felipe Gouveia.

Baltic Dry Index Edges Down

U.S. heating-oil futures tumbled to about $2.12 a gallon, approaching their lowest level in almost three years of $2.00 on April 8th, as feedstock costs have tumbled amid renewed uncertainty over U.S.–China trade talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “up to China” refrain underscoring a standstill—and growing fears of oversupply. Analysts at Barclays have already shaved $4 off their 2025 Brent forecast to $70, while OPEC+ members hint at accelerating May output hikes at their May 5th meeting, compounding Kazakhstan’s defiance of production rules and the potential for fresh Iranian barrels should nuclear sanctions ease.

Heating Oil Tracks Crude Lower

Sugar futures have been easing, trading just below 18 cents per pound,  their lowest since April 21, as markets weighed expectations of a bumpy production season in Brazil and signs of weakening demand. State agricultural agency Conab said that Brazil's sugar production is expected to hit a record high of 45.9 million metric tons in 2025/26, up 4% from the previous season, despite a 2% drop in local sugarcane crop.

Sugar Futures at Over 1-Week Low

Wheat futures climbed to $5.20 per bushel, attempting a rebound from the eight-month low of $5.12 reached on April 28th, driven by bargain buying after recent steep losses. However, gains were limited by forecasts of much-needed rain across the U.S. winter wheat belt and lingering uncertainty over U.S.-China trade tensions. According to the Commodity Weather Group, upcoming rainfall is expected to benefit wheat crops in the U.S. Plains, potentially boosting yields for the region’s hard red winter wheat. Meanwhile, the USDA rated 49% of the nation’s winter wheat crop as in good or excellent condition, up from 45% the previous week and above market expectations of 47%. Elsewhere, while China’s recent decision to exempt certain U.S. goods from tariffs sparked hopes for a de-escalation in trade tensions, American grain exports continue to face significant obstacles, with tariffs likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Wheat Tries to Recover from 8-Month Low

Soybean futures hovered around $10.40 per bushel, pausing a recent rally but remaining near their highest level since February 10th, as investors weighed rapid progress in U.S. planting against persistent trade tensions with China. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 18% of the soybean crop had been planted as of Sunday—above both the five-year average of 12% and analysts' expectations of 17%. Meanwhile, U.S. farmers are expected to reduce soybean acreage in 2025 to a five-year low amid the ongoing trade dispute with China, the world’s largest soybean importer. While China’s recent move to exempt some U.S. goods from tariffs sparked hopes of easing tensions, U.S. grain exports still face significant barriers, with Chinese tariffs likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Soybean Rally Stalls as US Planting Accelerates and China Tariffs Linger

Corn futures fell toward $4.70 per bushel, hovering near their lowest level since April 8th, as rapid progress in U.S. planting and ongoing trade tensions with China weighed on prices. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 24% of the corn crop had been planted as of Sunday—slightly below analysts’ expectations of 25% but above the five-year average of 22%. U.S. farmers are projected to expand corn acreage in 2025 to a 12-year high. Although China’s recent decision to exempt some U.S. goods from tariffs raised hopes for easing trade tensions, tariffs on U.S. grain remain in place, likely limiting exports to the top global importer for the foreseeable future.

Corn Slides as US Planting Advances and China Tariffs Persist

Copper futures in the US soared to $4.9 per pound in late April, the highest since the start of the month and surging over 20% since the US government suspended their series of aggressive reciprocal tariffs on April 9th amid less pessimism on global manufacturing and risks of tight supply domestically. Concerns of an imminent recession in the US and poor goods demand across major economies were tamed after the White House delayed its reciprocal tariffs by 90 days and announced a batch of exemptions for auto makers, key copper consumers. In the meantime, domestic prices were also lifted by threats of targeted tariffs on copper following the probe launched by US President Trump, which would stress the limited smelting capacity and raise bidding competitions. The threat widened the premium of copper futures in the US against comparable contracts in the LME, reigniting the surge in the metric after its volatility earlier in April.

Copper Surges Over 20% in April

US natural gas futures rose above $3.30/MMBtu after a 4% drop last week pushed prices to a five-month low of $3.00 on April 22. The rebound was likely driven by technical buying, as the market appeared oversold, despite weak fundamentals. Warmer weather and strong production, particularly from the Permian Basin, continue to limit demand. Average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, up from the March record of 106.2 bcfd. Meteorologists forecast above-normal temperatures through mid-May, reducing both heating and cooling needs and allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage. Still, a smaller-than-expected storage build last week eased some oversupply concerns. Meanwhile, LNG feed gas demand is showing signs of recovery, with average flows to US export facilities rising to a record 16.0 bcfd in April, boosted by increased volumes to Venture Global's new Plaquemines plant in Louisiana.

US Natgas Prices Rebound Past $3.3

Rice futures extended their decline to trade around $12.5 per hundredweight, a level last seen in January 2021.This trend is largely driven by abundant supply and persistent weak demand. In both Asia and top producer India, prices remain under pressure due to intense export competition and plentiful supply. India's state rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, reached a record 63.09 million tons as of April 1, far surpassing the government’s target of 13.6 million tons. As the world’s largest rice exporter, India controls approximately 40% of global rice trade. Meanwhile, demand, particularly from African countries, has been notably quiet in recent months.

Rice Futures at 2021-Lows

UK natural gas futures fell toward 76 pence per therm, the lowest in nine months, as lower demand and higher gas storage levels in neighboring European countries eased price pressures. Warmer temperatures in the UK and the North Sea reduced heating demand, expected to last until next week. Additionally, a surge in LNG shipments to Dutch gas trading hubs helped European utilities begin restocking, easing supply concerns for the rest of the year. However, European gas storage is filling slowly, at 38.41% capacity, down from over 61% last year. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump met Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and urged Russia to halt attacks, with Trump suggesting Ukraine might concede Crimea for peace. This uncertain geopolitical situation, combined with soft fundamentals, may provide some price support, particularly given the UK's limited storage capacity and reliance on European imports.

UK Natural Gas Futures Fall to 9-Month Low

Silver prices hovered around $33 per ounce on Tuesday, stabilizing after a recent pullback as investors awaited clarity on US-China trade relations and key US economic releases. China reiterated that it is not engaged in trade talks with the US, countering claims made by President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said several major trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals, and a trade agreement with India could be announced soon. Bessent also noted that China’s move to exempt certain US goods from retaliatory tariffs signaled a willingness to ease tensions. Investors now look ahead to Wednesday’s releases of first-quarter GDP figures and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, as well as Friday’s April jobs report, for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Silver Holds Steady

Copper futures traded around $4.84 per pound on Tuesday, remaining in a sideways range as persistent global trade tensions kept investors cautious. China reiterated it is not engaged in trade talks with the US, countering claims of communication between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said several major trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals and hinted that a trade deal with India could be announced soon. In top consumer China, officials expressed confidence in achieving their 5% full year growth target but stopped short of announcing immediate stimulus measures. Instead, they pledged to introduce new pro-growth policies in the second quarter, opting to first gauge the impact of trade disruptions before taking aggressive action.

Copper Sideways Amid Global Trade Concerns

Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 3,950 per tonne, marking a second straight session of losses, weighed by higher production in March after delayed harvests in February due to heavy rainfall and flooding. Meanwhile, stocks rose to 1.56 million tonnes in March, the first increase in seven months. Market volatility persisted amid conflicting signals on US tariffs—Beijing denied reports it was in talks to ease levies, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the next move was up to China. However, solid export estimates helped limit further declines, with cargo surveyor data showing shipments rose by 13.8% to 14.8% during April 1–25 from the previous month. In India, the world’s top importer, palm oil demand may pick up in April after five months of subdued buying, supported by lower prices and better margins relative to soybean oil. In March, India imported 424.6 thousand tonnes of palm oil, up 13.7% from February but still 38% lower than the same month last year.

Palm Oil Extends Declines

Gold fell to around $3,330 per ounce on Tuesday as investors monitor progress in tariff negotiations, while awaiting a slew of economic data. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that many top U.S. trading partners have made "very good" proposals to avert U.S. tariffs, adding that China's recent move to exempt certain U.S. goods from its retaliatory tariffs signaled a willingness to de-escalate tensions. Bessent said that all aspects of government are in contact with China, but emphasized that it is up to China to take steps to reduce tensions. Attention is now shifting to crucial U.S. economic reports this week, including the first estimate of Q1 GDP, March’s PCE inflation data, and April’s nonfarm payrolls, which will provide fresh insights into the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Gold Drifts Lower

Brent crude oil futures fell to around $65.6 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive session of losses amid a lack of clarity on U.S.-China trade talks and prospects of oversupply. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it is “up to China” to de-escalate trade tensions with the U.S., amid confusion about whether formal negotiations are currently underway. The ongoing trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies has fueled fears of a global economic slowdown, which would directly weigh on energy demand. Adding further pressure, some OPEC+ members are expected to suggest an acceleration of output hikes during their meeting on May 5, potentially extending production increases for a second straight month. Investors are also watching U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations, which could lead to more supply if an agreement is reached and sanctions are eased.

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