Gold rallied over 3.5% to above $4,950 per ounce on Friday and was set for weekly gains after a week of sharp two way moves, as signs of US economic softening and lingering geopolitical uncertainty combined with the aftereffects of forced selling to drive volatility. The rebound followed a late January liquidation wave triggered by higher margin requirements and a steep selloff in silver that spilled across precious metals, pushing prices lower before buyers re entered. Weaker US labour data, with weekly initial jobless claims rising to 231k and announced job cuts jumping to roughly 108k in January, reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve easing later this year, lowering real yield expectations and restoring a fundamental bid for bullion. US Iran talks in Oman described as a good start eased immediate escalation risks without removing broader uncertainty, sustaining gold’s defensive appeal, while a softer US dollar and position rebuilding further amplified the rebound.

Gold at 4952.32USD/t oz.

Cocoa prices traded around $4,200 per tonne, hovering near the lowest since January 2024, amid persistent concerns over demand.
Dealers cited weak global demand that is leading to a build-up in stocks of unsold beans in both the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest producers. The Ivory Coast officially launched on January 29, 2026, a strategic operation to buy back thousands of tons of unsold cocoa that have been sitting in warehouses and around the country's ports since November 2025. Meanwhile, the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has disclosed that buyers on the international market are increasingly turning away from Ghana’s cocoa due to higher prices compared to beans from other producing countries. Ghana has about 50,000 metric tons of unsold cocoa sitting at its ports.

Cocoa Futures Hover Around 2024-Lows

European natural gas futures rose above €36/MWh, extending the rebound from the three-week low of €32.86 on February 3rd amid forecasts of a new cold front in Europe and tighter supply for alternative power generating sources. Meteorologists forecasted a fresh cold snap in norther and easter European countries, lifting the outlook of demand on gas-intensive heating and driving gas traders to raise shipments of North American LNG. In the meantime, wind output across north west Europe remained weak, increasing reliance on gas for electricity generation. Low storage levels continued to support prices, with EU gas inventories around 39.2% full compared with about 52% a year ago. Storage remained particularly low in Germany at 30.2%, France 29% and the Netherlands 23.5%. EU stocks are projected to fall to about 26% by the end of March, implying strong summer injections will be needed to reach 90% before next winter.

European Natural Gas Rise Further

Brent crude futures traded choppily on Friday, dipping earlier on easing Middle East risk before rebounding over 0.5% to trade close to $68 a barrel, though prices remained on track for a first weekly decline in seven weeks. US Iran nuclear talks in Oman, which Iranian officials described as a good start with plans to continue negotiations, reduced fears of near term supply disruptions from a region that accounts for roughly one third of global crude output. Earlier gains reflected lingering caution as the US pushed to broaden talks beyond nuclear issues, while prior evacuation advisories had heightened sensitivity to escalation risk. That premium faded as diplomatic signals improved, reinforcing expectations of oversupply later this year. Adding to pressure, Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices for its main crude grade to Asia to the lowest since late 2020, highlighting ample supply, though the smaller than expected reduction suggested confidence in demand.

Brent Crude Rebounds on Choppy Session

WTI crude futures traded choppily on Friday, dipping earlier on easing Middle East risk before rebounding over 0.5% to trade close to $63.7 a barrel, though prices remained on track for a first weekly decline in seven weeks. US Iran nuclear talks in Oman, which Iranian officials described as a good start with plans to continue negotiations, reduced fears of near term supply disruptions from a region that accounts for roughly one third of global crude output. Earlier gains reflected lingering caution as the US pushed to broaden talks beyond nuclear issues, while prior evacuation advisories had heightened sensitivity to escalation risk. That premium faded as diplomatic signals improved, reinforcing expectations of oversupply later this year. Adding to pressure, Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices for its main crude grade to Asia to the lowest since late 2020, highlighting ample supply, though the smaller than expected reduction suggested confidence in demand.

Crude Oil Rebounds on Choppy Session

US natural gas futures rose to over $3.5 per MMBtu on Friday, set for a fourth consecutive session of increases as higher flows to liquified natural gas terminals in the US raised the outlook of exports in the near term. Expectations of exports were aligned with the increase in natural gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia due to the cold weather across the regions, driving US gas consumers to compete with higher demand from overseas. Colder weather in the US Northeast also supported prices. Still, front month contracts were due to end the week nearly 20% down as Monday's plunge extended the period of unprecedented volatility in US natural gas prices, largely due to higher heating demand following the wave of winter storms across the US. Consequently, stocks measured by the EIA fell by a record 360 billion cubic feet last week, which left inventories 27bcf below their five-year average, compared with a 143 bcf surplus the earlier period.

Natural Gas Extends Rebound

Silver extended its rebound toward the $76 per ounce mark on Friday, halting the selloff that started late January as markets gauged solid fundamentals for the metal against overdone speculative positions that triggered unprecedented volatility for the asset. Despite the rebound, silver prices erased all of this year's gain days after reaching a record of $121 on January 29th, after a wave of selling triggered higher margin requirements and magnified liquidation. Catalysts for the plunge also included the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the next Fed Chairman, who previously displayed strong views against a large Fed balance sheet. Precious metals had rallied after the US presidential administration hinted at efforts to weaken the dollar, in addition to geopolitical concerns in between NATO members and Middle Eastern military powers. At the same time, speculative bets on silver due to its industrial use in electrification and AI infrastructure added to the bullish sentiment.

Silver Extends Rebound

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, was down for a fifth consecutive day on Friday, falling by 0.7% to a fresh low since January 23 at 1,923 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, declined by 1.1% to 2,918 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, went down by 0.4% to 1,652 points. Conversely, the smaller supramax index rose 0.2% to 1,104 points. For the week, the benchmark index logged a 3.5% gain.

Baltic Dry Index Down for 5th Day

Soybean futures in the US extended their rally to $11.15 per bushel in February, the highest in two months, on renewed interest in US soybean shipments from China. President Donald Trump stated that China would lift purchases of domestic soybeans to 20 million tonnes this year and 25 million tonnes in the upcoming year. The measures signal the attempt by Trump to engage support for farmers after China shunned US grain following the trade war between both countries. The pledges could drive Chinese consumers to pay premiums on 8 million tonnes of the orders when compared to cheaper South American alternatives, especially due to the strong Brazilian harvest. Ample supply from Brazil, the world's top producer, drove US premiums over CBOT contracts to hover nearly double those from Brazilian benchmarks.

Soybeans Rise to 2-Month High

Wheat futures in the US were above $5.35 per bushel, not far from the two-month high of $5.4 on January 29th on lingering risks to supply. Renewed bouts of severe cold across the US Plains and parts of southern Russia revived concerns over winterkill for already stressed crops, tightening supply expectations after recent dryness limited protective snow cover in key regions. In the Black Sea, weather disruptions and lingering logistical frictions continued to constrain export flows, while uncertainty around Russia’s upcoming export quota reinforced expectations that global availability could tighten later in the marketing year. In turn, export aggregates from the US remained high as consumers were forced to diversify away from Black Sea gains due to military risk on strikes between Russia and Ukraine.

Wheat Rises Toward 2-Month High

WTI crude futures pared early gains to trade around the flatline near $67.5 a barrel on Friday and were on track for their first weekly decline in seven weeks, as concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East eased. At the same time, investors remained cautious ahead of the outcome of US–Iran nuclear talks. The US is pushing for a broader discussion that includes Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities, while Iran insists the talks focus solely on nuclear issues and sanctions relief. Adding to concerns, the US Virtual Embassy in Iran has also urged American citizens to leave immediately. Similar alerts were issued last month, which rattled energy markets over potential supply disruptions Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply, though the smaller-than-expected reduction suggested confidence in demand.

Oil Prices Reverse Early Gains

Brent crude futures pared early gains to trade around the flatline near $67.5 a barrel on Friday and were on track for their first weekly decline in seven weeks, as concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East eased. At the same time, investors remained cautious ahead of the outcome of US–Iran nuclear talks. The US is pushing for a broader discussion that includes Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities, while Iran insists the talks focus solely on nuclear issues and sanctions relief. Adding to concerns, the US Virtual Embassy in Iran has also urged American citizens to leave immediately. Similar alerts were issued last month, which rattled energy markets over potential supply disruptions Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply, though the smaller-than-expected reduction suggested confidence in demand.

Brent Crude Futures Cut Gains

Soybeans increased to 1116.00 USd/Bu, the highest since December 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Soybeans gained 5.87%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.2%.

Soybeans Hits 9-week High

Cotton decreased to 61.55 USd/Lbs, the lowest since November 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Cotton lost 4.97%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 6.25%.

Cotton Hits 10-week Low

US natural gas futures were little changed around $3.50 per MMBtu on Friday and are on track to end the week down nearly 20%, almost reversing the roughly 20% surge seen in the previous period. Traders assessed a record 360 Bcf withdrawal from US underground natural gas storage last week, which left inventories 27 Bcf below the five-year average, compared with a 143 Bcf surplus in the prior week. Meanwhile, production has begun to recover, with Lower 48 output rising to around 106.6 bcfd in early February from January levels. At the same time, mid-February weather forecasts have shifted markedly warmer particularly across the northeastern US, reducing expected heating demand following last week’s Arctic blast.

Natural Gas Prices in the US Stabilize

Brent crude oil futures rose over 1% to above $68 per barrel on Friday, reversing earlier losses, after the US Virtual Embassy in Iran urged American citizens to leave immediately. The notice raised concerns as US–Iran negotiations take place in Oman, with little sign of agreement on the agenda. The US has issued similar alerts over the past month, including one last month when President Trump considered possible military options in Iran, rattling energy markets over potential supply disruptions from the OPEC producer. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply, though the smaller-than-expected reduction suggested confidence in demand. Markets are also monitoring developments in the Russia–Ukraine conflict after fresh strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Still, oil is heading for its first weekly decline in six weeks.

Brent Reverses Early Losses

WTI crude oil futures rose over 1% to above $64 per barrel on Friday, reversing earlier losses, after the US Virtual Embassy in Iran urged American citizens to leave immediately. The notice raised concerns as US–Iran negotiations take place in Oman, with little sign of agreement on the agenda. The US has issued similar alerts over the past month, including one last month when President Trump considered possible military options in Iran, rattling energy markets over potential supply disruptions from the OPEC producer. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply, though the smaller-than-expected reduction suggested confidence in demand. Markets are also monitoring developments in the Russia–Ukraine conflict after fresh strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Still, oil is heading for its first weekly decline in six weeks.

Oil Reverses Early Losses

Silver rose more than 3% to above $73 per ounce on Friday after plunging nearly 10% earlier in the session, with volatility surging to levels last seen in 1980. Price swings in the metal have been far more extreme than in gold, reflecting silver’s smaller market size, thinner liquidity, and heavy speculative positioning. Still, silver is on track for a second consecutive weekly decline and remains about 40% below its Jan. 29 peak. Silver and other precious metals had rallied to record highs in January on heightened geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence that boosted safe-haven demand. Speculative buying, particularly from Chinese traders, added froth to the rally, leaving prices vulnerable to a sharp reversal as sentiment turned. Pressure on precious metals intensified further after a sharp rebound in the dollar following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, widely seen as the more hawkish choice.

Silver Whipsaws in Volatile Trade

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped for a second session to below MYR 4,200 per tonne on Friday, rattled by weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. The benchmark contract is set for its first weekly decline in five, down nearly 1%, as traders turned cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s data due February 10. Sentiment was further restrained by upcoming CPI and PPI readings in China, the top buyer, while crude oil also headed for its first weekly decline in several weeks ahead of key talks. Losses were capped by a weaker ringgit and stronger shipment data, with cargo surveyors reporting January exports up 14.9–17.9% month-on-month, driven by restocking ahead of the Spring Festival and Ramadan. Demand from top consumer India also improved in January, with imports surging 51% to a four-month high after the prior fall. Reuters projected Malaysia’s inventories likely halted a 10-month rise in January, as strong exports met a seasonal output slowdown.

Palm Oil Poised for First Weekly Drop in Five

Copper fell to around $5.77 per pound on Friday, hitting its lowest level in nearly six weeks, and on track for its worst week since late November, pressured by slowing demand from Chinese buyers and rising inventories. Reports showed that key consumer China had reduced purchases by fabricators and manufacturers as firms gradually pulled back ahead of the Chinese holidays. Stockpiles in LME warehouses across Asia are also climbing, further signaling softer demand. Analysts say the trend could accelerate as traders divert shipments from Africa to China to take advantage of temporary price gaps between Shanghai and London. Market sentiment was further weighed down after the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association projected that refined copper output will rise about 5% in 2026, half the growth recorded in 2025.

Copper Falls to Six-Week Low

Silver rose above 70, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD).

Silver traded above 70 USD/t.oz

Gold fell to around $4,750 per ounce on Friday, extending a 3.8% loss from the previous session and on track for its second straight weekly decline as selling pressure persisted. The pullback comes after the metal repeatedly hit record highs in January, driven by heightened geopolitical risks, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, and speculative buying in China. Easing geopolitical tensions also have weighed on gold’s safe-haven appeal after Iranian and US officials confirmed talks in Oman, with investors closely monitoring developments around the negotiations. Meanwhile, US job cuts hit 108.4K in January, the highest for the month since 2009, while initial claims rose to 231K and ADP payrolls missed forecasts. The string of weaker labour data reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, with markets eyeing a first move in June.

Gold Poised for Second Weekly Loss

Brent crude oil futures fell more than 1% below $67 per barrel on Friday, extending losses from the previous session and heading for their first weekly decline in six weeks, as attention remained on scheduled Iran–US talks later in the day. Iran’s confirmation that negotiations would take place helped ease near-term concerns over military conflict and supply disruptions involving the major OPEC producer, which accounts for about a third of global crude output. Still, differing views on the scope of the talks cast doubt on whether major gaps can be bridged. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply, although the smaller-than-expected reduction suggested confidence in demand. Elsewhere, markets are also monitoring developments in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, after fresh strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, even as Washington and Moscow moved to reopen senior-level military dialogue.

Brent Set for First Weekly Decline in Six

WTI crude oil futures fell more than 1% to around $62.5 per barrel on Friday, extending losses from the previous session and heading for their first weekly decline in six weeks, as attention remained on scheduled Iran–US talks later in the day. Iran’s confirmation that negotiations would take place helped ease near-term concerns over military conflict and supply disruptions involving the major OPEC producer, which accounts for about a third of global crude output. Still, differing views on the scope of the talks cast doubt on whether major gaps can be bridged. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply, although the smaller-than-expected reduction suggested confidence in demand. Elsewhere, markets are also monitoring developments in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, after fresh strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, even as Washington and Moscow moved to reopen senior-level military dialogue.

Oil Set for First Weekly Decline in Six

Silver slid more than 8% to below $65 per ounce on Friday, sinking to its lowest level in seven weeks amid widespread deleveraging and a deepening selloff across financial markets. The white metal is now down roughly 45% from its Jan. 29 peak, wiping out all gains for the year and marking its steepest collapse since 1980. Silver and other precious metals had surged to record highs in January, driven by heightened geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence that fueled safe-haven demand. Speculative buying, particularly from Chinese traders, added froth to the rally, leaving prices vulnerable to a sharp reversal as sentiment turned. Pressure on precious metals increased further after a sharp rebound in the dollar following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, widely seen as the more hawkish choice. Silver’s volatility outpaced other metals as heavy speculative flows overshadowed its supply-demand fundamentals.

Silver Extends Historic Drop

Lithium carbonate futures sank to CNY 145,000 per tonne, to the over two-year high of CNY 180,000 on January 26th, tracking the aggressive pullback in speculative metals as markets reconsidered the demand from power storage investments in major economies. Chinese authorities lowered export rebates for battery producers from April, driving manufacturers to front-run lithium orders. In the meantime, ambitious bets in power and datacenter infrastructure by the Chinese government was combined with the announcement of higher power storage spending, supporting the outlook for lithium and other battery metals. This was combined with Beijing stating it would double EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027, supporting lithium-rich energy storage systems. Meanwhile, authorities stated 27 mining permits were canceled in the lithium hub of Jiangxi, aligned with the earlier suspension of activity in CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine amid Beijing's anti-involution campaign.

Lithium Extends Plunge from 2-Year High

Wheat futures rose past $5.35 per bushel rebounding toward eight week highs last seen January 29th amid supply risks and firm demand signals. Renewed bouts of severe cold across the US Plains and parts of southern Russia revived concerns over winterkill for already stressed crops, tightening supply expectations after recent dryness limited protective snow cover in key regions. In the Black Sea, weather disruptions and lingering logistical frictions continued to constrain export flows, while uncertainty around Russia’s upcoming export quota reinforced expectations that global availability could tighten later in the marketing year. On the demand side, US export sales remained steady as buyers sought to diversify away from Black Sea origins amid rising delivery risk, lending support to nearby prices. Although global inventories remain elevated, the rebound reflects a repricing of downside risk to production and exportable supply.

Wheat Rebounds on Renewed Supply Risks

Lumber futures slipped below $590 per thousand board feet, the lowest level in nearly four weeks, as housing demand weakened and earlier restocking momentum faded. Demand softened as financing costs edged higher and housing activity cooled, with US pending home sales plunging 9.3% month on month in December 2025, removing a key source of construction and renovation related wood consumption ahead of the spring building season. At the same time, mills continued running to rebuild inventories after the winter squeeze, increasing physical availability while distributors reported quieter order books. The combination of softer demand and rising availability encouraged position unwinds after January’s rally, with falling volumes and open interest amplifying the price decline.

Lumber Drops Near 4-Week Lows

Rice increased to 11.21 USD/cwt, the highest since October 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 11.04%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 18.08%.

Rice Hits 17-week High

UK natural gas futures rose above 81 pence per therm, rebounding from a three-week low of 78.52 pence on February 3, tracking gains in the European benchmark as low storage and supply risks supported prices. The UK remains highly sensitive to market moves due to limited storage capacity and heavy reliance on imports. Domestic storage is around 36.7% full, with particularly low levels at Humbly Grove and Storengy UK, leaving the system exposed to regional and global supply pressures. EU gas inventories are also tight at about 39.2% compared with roughly 52% a year ago. Weak wind output across northwest Europe has increased reliance on gas for power generation, supporting demand. While temperatures are currently above normal, colder conditions are forecast from February 13, which could lift heating demand. Higher LNG arrivals this week may ease supply pressure, while markets also monitor Ukraine Russia peace talks for potential supply impacts.

UK Natural Gas Futures Rise from 3-Week Low

German natural gas futures edged up to above €33 per megawatt-hour, recovering from a three-week low of €32.77 on Feb 3, as below-normal wind generation lifted demand for gas from power plants and tightened near-term supply. Wind output across north west Europe remains weak, increasing reliance on gas for electricity generation. While temperatures are currently above normal and expected to peak by Sunday, colder conditions are forecast from February 13, which could boost heating demand. Low storage levels continue to support prices, with EU gas inventories around 39.2% full compared with about 52% a year ago. Storage remains particularly low in Germany at 30.2%. EU stocks are projected to fall to about 26% by the end of March, implying strong summer injections will be needed to reach 90% before next winter. Higher LNG arrivals this week may ease pressure, while markets also monitor Ukraine Russia peace talks for supply implications.

Germany Natural Gas Futures Edge Up from 3-Week Low

US natural gas futures fell more than 2% to $3.39 per MMBtu on Thursday after a record storage withdrawal came in smaller than expected and warmer weather forecasts reduced demand concerns. The EIA reported a record 360 bcf draw for the week to January 30, above last year and the five year average but below forecasts for a 374 bcf decline, easing fears of tighter supply. Prices were also pressured by expectations for milder temperatures and lower heating demand over the next two weeks after last week’s Arctic blast. Production has begun to recover, with Lower 48 output rising to about 106.6 bcfd in early February from January levels. Storage fell sharply after the cold snap and is now about 1% below seasonal norms, compared with 5% above normal a week earlier. Meanwhile, LNG export flows have strengthened to 18.4 bcfd in February, close to record highs.

US Natgas Prices Fall After Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Draw

Brent crude oil futures fell more than 3% to around $67.3 per barrel on Thursday, reversing a two-day advance as easing geopolitical tensions and demand concerns pressured prices. Iran confirmed it will hold negotiations with the US in Oman on Friday, reducing the immediate risk of military conflict and potential supply disruptions from the major OPEC producer. The news eased some of the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Middle East, which accounts for about a third of global crude supply. Prices also came under pressure after weaker US private jobs data revived concerns about an economic slowdown and softer fuel demand. Still, uncertainty remains over whether Washington and Tehran can bridge key differences, keeping some risk premium in the market. Traders are also monitoring Ukraine developments after renewed Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, while the US and Russia agreed to resume high level military contacts.

Brent Crude Oil Snaps 2-Day Advance

WTI crude oil futures fell more than 3% to around $63 per barrel on Thursday, reversing a two-day advance as easing geopolitical tensions and demand concerns pressured prices. Iran confirmed it will hold negotiations with the US in Oman on Friday, reducing the immediate risk of military conflict and potential supply disruptions from the major OPEC producer. The news eased some of the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Middle East, which accounts for about a third of global crude supply. Prices also came under pressure after weaker US private jobs data revived concerns about an economic slowdown and softer fuel demand. Still, uncertainty remains over whether Washington and Tehran can bridge key differences, keeping some risk premium in the market. Traders are also monitoring Ukraine developments after renewed Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, while the US and Russia agreed to resume high level military contacts.

Oil Snaps Two-Day Advance

Nuclear Energy Index decreased to 49.38 USD, the lowest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Nuclear Energy Index lost 0.5%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 75.97%.

Nuclear Energy Index Hits 4-week Low

Silver slumped as much as 16.5% to around $73.5 per ounce, snapping a brief two day rebound as the latest recovery attempt failed to hold and volatility surged across precious metals. Hopes for dip buying faded quickly as volatility intensified across precious metals, with silver underperforming amid broad deleveraging. The move unfolded alongside deteriorating US labour signals, including 108.4K job cuts in January and a jump in initial claims to 231K, which reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Even so, the immediate response favoured risk reduction rather than defensive inflows, pressuring silver through margin driven selling after last week’s sharp rally. Policy uncertainty also lingered as markets weighed Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair, given his preference for a smaller balance sheet and a more cautious approach to easing. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical risk after confirmation of upcoming US Iran talks reduced near term safe haven demand.

Silver Extends Plunge

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, retreated for a fourth straight session on Thursday, falling about 1% to a new low since January 26 at 1,936 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased by 1.4% to 2,951 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, slumped by 1.5% to 1,659 points. Conversely, the smaller suprmax index rose 0.9% to its highest since December 24 last year at 1,102 points.

Baltic Dry Index Eases for 4th Day

Gold fell further below $4,820 per ounce on Thursday, extending its pullback as deteriorating US growth and labour signals triggered broad risk reduction rather than a flight to safety. US companies announced 108.4K job cuts in January, the highest for the month since 2009, while initial jobless claims climbed to 231K, well above expectations, and ADP data showed private payroll growth sharply undershot forecasts. The run of softer labour indicators reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, with markets still leaning toward a first move in June and another potentially in September. However, the immediate market response favoured deleveraging across crowded trades, with equities, cryptocurrencies, and silver selling off sharply, weighing on gold through liquidation flows after last week’s outsized rally. Elsewhere, the ECB and Bank of England left rates unchanged, with a dovish BoE tilt.

Gold Extends Losses

US heating oil futures slipped below $2.40 per gallon after a brief two session rebound as softer crude oil benchmarks lowered refinery input costs and capped upside, while warmer weather expectations continued to restrain demand. Prices tracked oil benchmarks lower after Tehran confirmed it would hold talks with Washington this week, easing fears that an escalation in the Middle East could disrupt energy flows. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said discussions will take place in Oman on Friday, a plan later confirmed by a White House official, though uncertainty persists over the scope of negotiations as Tehran seeks to limit talks to its nuclear program. At the same time, EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by about 3.5 million barrels in the week to January 30th, while distillate stocks posted a sharp draw of roughly 5.55 million barrels the prior week, confirming strong consumption that already materialised during the recent Arctic cold spell.

Heating Oil Drops on US-Iran Descalation Hopes

US natural gas futures were little changed at $3.45 per million British thermal units on Thursday, as traders awaited the weekly EIA storage report and weighed strong LNG demand against milder weather forecasts. Analysts expect heavy withdrawals during last week’s Arctic blast to have shifted inventories from about 5% above normal to roughly 1% below normal for this time of year, tightening supply. Gas flows to the eight largest US LNG export plants averaged 18.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and near December’s record 18.5 bcfd, reflecting strong global demand for US gas. The US became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023 amid supply disruptions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Weather is expected to turn mostly warmer nationwide through February 19, though the Northeast will remain colder for another week. Production in the Lower 48 edged up to 106.4 bcfd but remains below December’s record levels.

US Natgas Prices Little Changed Ahead EIA Data

European natural gas futures rose toward €35/MWh, rebounding from a three-week low of €32.86 on Feb 3 as below-normal wind generation lifted demand for gas from power plants and tightened near-term supply. Wind output across north west Europe remains weak, increasing reliance on gas for electricity generation. While temperatures are currently above normal and expected to peak by Sunday, colder conditions are forecast from February 13, which could boost heating demand. Low storage levels continue to support prices, with EU gas inventories around 39.2% full compared with about 52% a year ago. Storage remains particularly low in Germany at 30.2%, France 29% and the Netherlands 23.5%. EU stocks are projected to fall to about 26% by the end of March, implying strong summer injections will be needed to reach 90% before next winter. Higher LNG arrivals this week may ease pressure, while markets also monitor Ukraine Russia peace talks for supply implications.

TTF Prices Rebound from 3-Week Low

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 4,215 per tonne on Thursday, reversing modest gains from the prior session, as losses in the Dalian palm oil contract and weaker rival oils in Chicago weighed on sentiment. Trading remained cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly data, due on February 10. Still, the downside was partly capped by a softer ringgit. On the export front, cargo surveyors reported that January palm oil shipments rose by 14.9%–17.9% mom. Demand from key buyer India strengthened notably, with imports jumping 51% to a four-month high in January, driven by palm oil’s steep discount to soyoil that encouraged refiners to increase purchases. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, recorded a 102.23% surge in exports from December, bringing total 2025 shipments up 9.1% yoy. In addition, Reuters forecast Malaysia’s palm oil inventories likely ended a 10-month rise in January, as robust exports coincided with a seasonal slowdown in production.

Palm Oil Trades Lower as MPOB Data Approaches

Steel rebar futures fell below CNY 3,080 a ton, hitting a one-month low as Chinese steel mills trimmed production ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Several blast furnaces and electric-arc furnaces have paused operations for planned maintenance, weighing on near-term demand. However, industry data showed blast furnace utilization remained above 86%, higher than the previous week, while daily hot metal output rose by 21,000 tons week-on-week. Meanwhile, data from the World Steel Association pointed to a decline in global steel supply in 2025, led by production cuts in China under its anti-involution campaign. China remains the world’s largest steel producer, with output totaling 960.8 Mt. last year, followed by India, the US, Japan, and Russia, which together produced 395.4 Mt. On the demand side, official data showed Chinese construction activity rebounded in December after four consecutive months of contraction.

Steel Slides to 1-Month Low

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 770 a ton, hitting a seven-week low as rising supply coincided with seasonally weaker demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Analysts noted that iron ore inventories at Chinese ports are near record highs, while stockpiles at steel mills have also continued to build. Mills have also scaled back output and largely completed restocking as the holiday approaches, while several blast furnaces and electric-arc furnaces have paused operations for planned maintenance, raising concerns over near-term feedstock demand. That said, industry data showed blast furnace utilization remained above 86%, higher than the previous week, and daily hot metal output rose by 21,000 tons week-on-week. Elsewhere, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil accelerated in late January, adding further pressure to near-term supply.

Iron Ore Hits 7-Week Low

Copper held below $5.85 per pound on Thursday after losing nearly 4% in the previous session, weighed down rising supplies in top consumer China. An industry group has forecasted that the country’s refined copper output will likely rise by about 5% this year following a 10% increase last year. Rising stockpiles in major trading hubs, particularly LME warehouses in Asia, also weighed on prices, signaling that supplies initially destined for the US may have been redirected elsewhere. On the demand side, purchases from Chinese fabricators and manufacturers slowed for a second consecutive day on Wednesday as businesses prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays. The dip-buying earlier this week also faded as precious metals, especially gold and silver, came under renewed selling pressure.

Copper Pressured by Supply Concerns

Platinum futures fell below $2,100 an ounce, retreating after a recent rebound, tracking a broader precious metals sell-off amid a rising US dollar. The move followed hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, with Governor Lisa Cook indicating she would not support additional rate cuts, while President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, seen as less inclined toward aggressive easing, reinforced expectations of a slower pace of US rate reductions. Geopolitical tensions are also in focus after the US and Iran scheduled a fresh round of talks. In addition, near-term demand showed signs of softening, as elevated prices risked reducing autocatalyst purchases and encouraging substitution toward palladium. Meanwhile, downside is partially limited by tight supply fundamentals: platinum markets remain structurally undersupplied, with South African production, accounting for roughly 70% of global output, constrained by chronic underinvestment and operational disruptions.

Platinum Retreats

Gold fell to around $4,930 per ounce on Thursday, halting a two-day gain, pressured by a rising US dollar after the Federal Reserve signaled caution on rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would not support additional cuts, prioritizing persistent upside inflation risks over signs of a slowing labor market. This, combined with President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, seen as more hawkish than other contenders, led markets to factor in a slower pace for potential rate cuts. On the data front, the ADP employment report showed weaker-than-expected private payroll growth, while the ISM services PMI surprised to the upside. Elsewhere, US–Iran tensions lingered despite plans for nuclear talks in Oman on Friday, with Washington not ruling out strikes. Earlier this week, gold surged more than 6%, marking its largest intraday rise since 2008, fueled by dip-buying after a historic pullback from record highs late last week.

Gold Falls on Fed Caution

Silver fell as much as 8.5% toward $80 an ounce on Thursday, snapping a two-day rebound as precious metals faced renewed selling pressure and heightened volatility. Despite hopes that dip buyers might step in at lower levels, the decline in silver and other metals appears set to continue after the recent rebound failed to hold. The selloff coincided with a stronger dollar, fueled by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and expectations of a slower pace of US rate cuts. Investors considered the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair, noting his preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet and expectations that he would be less aggressive on rate reductions. Additionally, geopolitical tensions eased after the US and Iran scheduled a fresh round of talks for Friday, though the scope remains uncertain. Tehran seeks to confine discussions to its nuclear program, while Washington wants to address ballistic missiles, regional militant support, and human rights issues.

Silver Plunges Amid Renewed Selling Pressure

Silver climbed toward $90 an ounce on Thursday, marking a third consecutive session of gains as the precious metal continued to recover from a historic selloff that included a record 26% one-day plunge. Dip buyers stepped in, supported by analysts’ view that the fundamentals that drove gold and silver to record highs in January remain intact. Investors also weighed the potential for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts after ADP data showed weaker-than-expected private payroll growth last month. However, caution lingered following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, who is expected to favor lower rates but less aggressively than other candidates. Geopolitical tensions eased after the US and Iran scheduled fresh talks for Friday, though the scope remains uncertain. Tehran seeks to limit discussions to its nuclear program, while Washington aims to address ballistic missiles, regional militant support, and human rights issues.

Silver Extends Gains for Third Day

Gold climbed to around $5,000 per ounce on Thursday, extending gains for a third straight session after posting its largest intraday rise since 2008 earlier this week. The move was driven by dip buying following a historic pullback from record highs late last week. Meanwhile, with key US government data delayed, markets placed greater weight on private indicators  to gauge the economy and the Federal Reserve’s outlook, particularly after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Attention focused on the ADP employment report, which showed weaker-than-expected private payroll growth, while an upside surprise in the ISM services PMI pointed to resilience in the services sector. Elsewhere, US–Iran tensions lingered despite an agreement to hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday, as Washington has not ruled out strikes over Iran’s treatment of demonstrators and its nuclear activities.

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