Silver traded near $61 an ounce on Wednesday, hovering at six-month lows as expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy outweighed support from the interim US-Iran peace agreement, which helped ease inflation concerns. At its latest policy meeting, Fed officials left interest rates unchanged but indicated increasing support for future rate hikes, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to restoring price stability. Meanwhile, progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran encouraged a rise in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing pressure on global energy supplies and reducing inflation risks. Silver and other metals also faced additional selling pressure as a sharp decline in US technology stocks prompted investors to trim bullion positions to offset losses elsewhere in their portfolios.

Silver Holds Losses on Hawkish Fed Bets

Brent decreased to 76.47 USD/Bbl, the lowest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Brent Crude Oil lost 20.82%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 15.23%.

Brent Hits 16-week Low

Gold fell below $4,100 an ounce on Wednesday, sliding toward seven-month lows as expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy outweighed support from the interim US-Iran peace agreement, which helped ease inflation concerns. At its latest policy meeting, Fed officials left interest rates unchanged but indicated increasing support for future rate hikes, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to restoring price stability. Meanwhile, progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran encouraged a rise in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing pressure on global energy supplies and reducing inflation risks. Gold also faced additional selling pressure as a sharp decline in US technology stocks prompted investors to trim bullion positions to offset losses elsewhere in their portfolios.

Gold Extends Losses on Hawkish Fed Bets

Oat decreased to 295.25 USd/Bu, the lowest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Oat lost 17.59%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 16.51%.

Oat Hits 19-week Low

Brent fell below $77 per barrel on Wednesday, moving closer to levels seen before the Middle East conflict began as a growing number of tankers resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz amid advances in US-Iran peace negotiations. The International Maritime Organization said it had received security assurances that could enable hundreds of vessels to leave the Persian Gulf via Hormuz, as efforts continue to evacuate thousands of seafarers. The IEA also reported that UAE oil exports in early June rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels, supported by the use of pipelines, storage facilities, and alternative shipping routes. Adding to supply expectations, a new 60-day US waiver allows global buyers, including US refiners, to purchase Iranian crude and refined products. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman announced the start of discussions on a joint framework for managing Hormuz transit, including fee structures, raising concerns that Tehran could impose passage charges.

Brent Slips as Hormuz Traffic Resumes

Crude oil fell below $73 per barrel on Wednesday, moving closer to levels seen before the Middle East conflict began as a growing number of tankers resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz amid advances in US-Iran peace negotiations. The International Maritime Organization said it had received security assurances that could enable hundreds of vessels to leave the Persian Gulf via Hormuz, as efforts continue to evacuate thousands of seafarers. The IEA also reported that UAE oil exports in early June rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels, supported by the use of pipelines, storage facilities, and alternative shipping routes. Adding to supply expectations, a new 60-day US waiver allows global buyers, including US refiners, to purchase Iranian crude and refined products. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman announced the start of discussions on a joint framework for managing Hormuz transit, including fee structures, raising concerns that Tehran could impose passage charges.

Oil Slips as Hormuz Traffic Resumes

Silver is down by 5%

Coffee increased to 278.40 USd/Lbs, the highest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee gained 1.3%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 12.43%.

Coffee Hits 5-week High

US natural gas prices declined to $3.2 per MMBtu due to ample storage volumes and updated weather forecasts predicting cooler temperatures. Forecasters expect below-average temperatures in the mid-Atlantic region from June 23 to 27, which will likely reduce power demand for air conditioning. This weather shift follows a mild spring that allowed energy companies to aggressively stockpile gas, keeping domestic inventories approximately 5.8% above normal levels. Furthermore, a reduction in gas flows to US liquefied natural gas export terminals has diverted more supply into the domestic market. This increased availability has overshadowed a slight decline in production, as average daily gas output in the Lower 48 states dipped to 109.5 billion cubic feet so far in June from 109.7 billion cubic feet in May.

US Natgas Prices Edge Down

Cocoa futures traded around $4,600 per tonne, the highest since May 11, driven by short covering and weather-related supply concerns. Traders monitored the end of the mid-season harvest in West Africa and the upcoming main harvest, which starts in September. Farmers in top grower Ivory Coast have expressed concerns that recent above-average rainfall could lead to flooding, higher disease incidence, and reduced cocoa bean quality during the final stretch of the mid-crop harvest. While rainfall is crucial for crop development, excessive moisture also favors the emergence of fungal diseases and an increased presence of insects in crops, particularly at a critical stage for cocoa pod formation and ripening. Meanwhile, concerns about the potential impact of the El Nino persisted. Another factor for investors is the drop in ICE-certified stocks at US ports, which fell by 3,828 bags to 2,914,908, suggesting tighter supply.

Cocoa Futures at Over 1-Month High

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was down for a second session on Tuesday, falling about 0.6% to 2,667 points, amid broad-based declines across vessel segments.  The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, decreased by 0.7% to its lowest since June 18 at 4,046 points; and the panamax index, which tracks vessels carrying around 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, eased 0.7% to 2,045 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell by 0.6% to 1,705 points.

Baltic Dry Index Falls for 2nd Day

Brent crude oil prices stabilized around $78 per barrel on Tuesday as traders monitored advancements toward resolving the conflict with Iran. Following an interim peace deal that already reduced oil prices by 40% from their peak, a new 60-day US waiver now permits global buyers, including American refineries, to purchase Iranian crude and fuels. While both nations noted progress during talks in Switzerland and agreed to form four working groups to address nuclear issues and sanctions, discrepancies remain. For instance, Tehran disputed US claims regarding the immediate return of nuclear inspectors. Meanwhile, Persian Gulf supply is rising, with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding shipping workarounds and Iran exporting over 30 million barrels in the past week. However, long-term market stability depends on protracted negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon, and the secure reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Brent Crude Oil Hovers at $78

Crude oil prices stabilized around $74 per barrel on Tuesday as traders monitored advancements toward resolving the conflict with Iran. Following an interim peace deal that already reduced oil prices by 40% from their peak, a new 60-day US waiver now permits global buyers, including American refineries, to purchase Iranian crude and fuels. While both nations noted progress during talks in Switzerland and agreed to form four working groups to address nuclear issues and sanctions, discrepancies remain. For instance, Tehran disputed US claims regarding the immediate return of nuclear inspectors. Meanwhile, Persian Gulf supply is rising, with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding shipping workarounds and Iran exporting over 30 million barrels in the past week. However, long-term market stability depends on protracted negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon, and the secure reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil Steadies

Cotton futures traded near 78 cents per pound after briefly dipping toward 77 cents, with recent price action largely driven by short covering. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the market after Federal Reserve officials signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the competitiveness of U.S. cotton in export markets. Weaker crude oil prices also weighed, as cheaper synthetic fibers become more cost-competitive relative to cotton. Meanwhile, crop conditions remained generally favorable, though investors continue to closely monitor weather developments across key U.S. growing regions ahead of July, with excessive rainfall in some areas and drought concerns in others. Certified cotton stocks remain ample, indicating little risk of a delivery squeeze and helping to keep supply concerns in check.

Cotton Futures Edge Lower

Iron ore futures dropped to CNY 738 per ton in June, the lowest since July 2025, pressured by expectations of higher exports from major suppliers as well as subdued demand. Mining companies are expected to increase shipments this month to meet their targets, coinciding with a seasonal slowdown in steel demand. This is likely to lead to a further build-up in port inventories, which are already at record highs. Additional downward pressure came from disappointing economic data in China, especially retail sales, which declined for the first time in more than three years, fueling concerns over weaker steel consumption in the months ahead. Prices were also undermined by a slump in crude oil, driven by signs of progress in US–Iran peace talks, which in turn reduced freight rates.

Iron Ore Drops to Near 1-Year Low

UK natural gas prices dropped further to around 99.2 pence a therm, amid easing supply concerns following progress in US-Iran talks. The US on Monday authorized Iranian oil sales under a temporary 60-day licence following productive talks in Switzerland over the weekend. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also began increasing, with several vessels transiting the key waterway on Monday. Meanwhile, conflicting signals emerged after Iranian media denied US claims that Tehran had agreed to readmit IAEA inspectors or had accepted sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the strait and allowing renewed nuclear inspections. For Europe, concerns persisted over its ability to replenish gas inventories before next winter. European storage facilities are currently around 46.4% full, below the five-year average of more than 50% for this time of year. This left the market vulnerable, particularly as forecasts of hotter weather across Europe were expected to increase demand.

UK Natural Gas Prices Fall Further

Gold is down by 2%

Nickel traded around $17,400 per tonne, falling to its lowest level in over two months, as investors extended profit-taking after a rally above $19,600 in early May. Sentiment weakened further as momentum-driven positioning unwound. Additional pressure came from soft demand conditions in China, where nickel salt transactions remained sluggish and stainless steel output showed limited improvement, while elevated exchange inventories reinforced oversupply concerns in the near term. However, supply-side uncertainty in Indonesia provided some offset, as tighter mining quotas, rising fiscal and regulatory scrutiny, and adjustments to benchmark pricing have raised questions over future output growth. Reports of Chinese-backed investors exploring alternative nickel projects outside Indonesia further highlighted potential shifts in investment flows and longer-term supply constraints.

Nickel Hits Over 2-Month Low

Brent crude oil dropped below $77 per barrel on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session to hit a near three-month low on signs of initial progress in ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland. In a key development, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, raising expectations of a quicker recovery in global supply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also picked up, with producers including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative routes to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear program remains a major point of contention after Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to admit nuclear inspectors, a claim Iranian officials have denied.

Brent Drops Further

Crude oil fell toward $73 per barrel on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session to hit a near three-month low on signs of initial progress in ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland. In a key development, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, raising expectations of a quicker recovery in global supply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also picked up, with producers including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative routes to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear program remains a major point of contention after Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to admit nuclear inspectors, a claim Iranian officials have denied.

Oil Drops Further

Copper is down by 2%

Copper decreased to 6.24 USD/Lbs, the lowest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper lost 1.76%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 27.94%.

Copper Hits 4-week Low

Copper futures fell below $6.3 per pound on Tuesday, extending their decline as easing supply concerns combined with softer demand conditions. Industry data showed that global shipments of copper concentrate have risen since April, pointing to ample raw material availability. At the same time, imports of concentrate by top consumer China have remained subdued, while treatment charges continue to hover near record lows. Despite these pressures, excess smelting capacity has so far limited the need for production cuts. Analysts noted that weakness across traditional copper-consuming industries in China has been only partially offset by resilient demand from renewable energy, energy storage, and electronics sectors. Still, longer-term support for copper prices remains in place, underpinned by constrained mine supply and growing demand linked to electrification.

Copper Slides on Weak Supply-Demand Dynamics

Aluminum futures in the UK dropped to around $3,320 in early Asian trading, the lowest since March 27, amid prospects for the resumption of metal exports from the Persian Gulf following progress in US-Iran talks. The two countries have agreed on a roadmap toward a final agreement following their first round of high-level talks, raising expectations for a return of supplies from the Middle East, which makes up roughly 9% of global output. However, uncertainties remain, as major Gulf producers continue to face operational disruptions following earlier Iranian attacks. Additional downside pressure comes from rising output in China, the world’s largest producer, and increased production from smelters in Indonesia. On the demand side, weak economic data from China has added concerns, as the country is also one of the biggest consumers of the metal. A stronger US dollar is also weighing on prices, as it makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Aluminum Falls to Near 3-Month Low

Nickel decreased to 17501.00 USD/T, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Nickel lost 6.18%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 17.58%.

Nickel Hits 10-week Low

Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower, holding below MYR 4,700 per tonne after a recent two-week peak, weighed by profit-taking and softer crude oil prices amid mixed U.S.–Iran signals. Meanwhile, Malaysia trimmed its July crude palm oil reference price but kept the export duty at 10%. Still, losses were cushioned by a weaker ringgit and strength in rival edible oils on Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Simultaneously, export momentum stayed firm, with cargo surveyors reporting June 1–20 shipments up 19.1%–25% from the same period in May. Meanwhile, El Niño’s lingering impact continued to stoke forecasts of tighter output. In Indonesia, the world’s top producer, the B50 biodiesel mandate will roll out July 1 after successful fuel tests, lifting domestic demand prospects. In the meantime, India’s imports are expected to exceed 600,000 tonnes in June, following May’s 549,356 tonnes, underscoring steady appetite from the largest buyer.

Palm Oil Eases from Near 3-Week High

Zinc futures hovered near $3,600 per tonne, close to a four-year high, as market sentiment improved following progress in US–Iran talks. The first round of talks in Switzerland concluded with both sides agreeing on a roadmap toward a final deal, easing concerns over further disruptions to global economic activity and improving expectations for industrial demand. Additional support came from tightening near-term supply conditions after production setbacks at key facilities. Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating at reduced capacity after an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru was temporarily suspended due to fire damage, though production is gradually resuming. In addition, a seismic event at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine earlier this year has raised concerns about the possibility of prolonged lower output. However, a strong US dollar is weighing on zinc prices, as it makes dollar-priced commodities less attractive for buyers using other currencies.

Zinc Hovers Near 4-Year High

Silver fell toward $63 an ounce on Tuesday, extending recent losses as firm expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes outweighed optimism surrounding ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations. Both Deutsche Bank and BofA Global Research have revised their forecasts to include a rate increase in September. Investors are now focused on this week’s PCE report, which contains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is expected to offer fresh insight into underlying price pressures. Meanwhile, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, boosting expectations of a faster recovery in global supply. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased, with producers such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative export routes, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week.

Silver Remains Under Pressure

Gold fell below $4,150 an ounce on Tuesday, giving back gains from the previous session as firm expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes outweighed optimism surrounding ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations. Both Deutsche Bank and BofA Global Research have revised their forecasts to include a rate increase in September. Investors are now focused on this week’s PCE report, which contains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is expected to offer fresh insight into underlying price pressures. Meanwhile, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, boosting expectations of a faster recovery in global supply. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased, with producers such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative export routes, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week.

Gold Pressured by Fed Rate Hike Expectations

US natural gas prices dropped to $3.23 per MMBtu after hitting a more than two-week high in the previous session on higher gas flows to LNG export facilities and forecasts of warmer weather. Average flows to major LNG export terminals edged up to 17.2 bcfd so far in June from 17.1 bcfd in May, as liquefaction units, including those at Freeport LNG, returned from maintenance outages. At the same time, forecasts indicate temperatures will remain above normal through July 7, likely increasing gas demand from power generators as air conditioning use rises. On the supply side, average production in the Lower 48 states remained unchanged at 109.7 bcfd so far in June. Inventories remained around 5.8% above normal as of the week ending June 19, signaling a well-supplied market. Separately, two LNG carriers were reportedly en route directly from the US to China.

US Natgas Prices Ease

Soybean futures hovered around $11.2 per bushel, pressured near four-month lows as favourable US crop weather conditions and falling crude oil prices weighed on prices. Signs of progress in ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations improved shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, fueling expectations of a faster recovery in global supply and pushing crude oil prices lower. Soybeans often track crude oil due to its use as feedstock for biofuel. Abundant rainfall and moderate temperatures in the US Midwest have also curbed prices this month. However, excess wet conditions are beginning to disrupt fieldwork, delaying fertilizer applications and crop treatments. Additionally, the US dollar remained firm, making soybeans more expensive for foreign buyers. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring signs of renewed Chinese buying. The USDA confirmed last week a 132,000-ton US soybean sale to China for 2026/27 delivery, the first publicly reported Chinese purchase since the May summit.

Soybean Prices Struggle at 4-Month Lows

Platinum futures fell to below $1,650 an ounce, hitting the lowest level since November 2025, as a stronger US dollar outweighed progress in US-Iran talks that helped ease inflation concerns. The greenback remained firm as markets continue to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will raise the fed funds rate this year after a hawkish tone from new Chair Kevin Warsh last week and upward revisions to inflation forecasts. A stronger dollar typically weighs on non-yielding assets by making it more expensive for foreign buyers. Meanwhile, early signs of progress in ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations helped soften inflation concerns and ease pressure on central banks to tighten policy. Both sides recently agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, and now Washington has issued Tehran a license to sell oil on international markets, fueling expectations of a faster recovery in global supply. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased, pushing oil prices lower.

Platinum Hits 7-Month Low

European natural gas prices slipped to around €42.1 per MWh as progress in US-Iran talks eased supply risks. The US on Monday authorized Iranian oil sales under a temporary 60-day licence following productive talks in Switzerland over the weekend. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also began increasing, with several vessels transiting the key waterway on Monday. Meanwhile, conflicting signals emerged after Iranian media denied US claims that Tehran had agreed to readmit IAEA inspectors or had accepted sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the strait and allowing renewed nuclear inspections. For Europe, concerns persisted over its ability to replenish gas inventories before next winter. European storage facilities are currently around 46.4% full, below the five-year average of more than 50% for this time of year. This left the market vulnerable, particularly as forecasts of hotter weather across Europe were expected to increase demand.

European Gas Prices Edge Down

US gasoline prices held below $3 per gallon, consolidating just above three-month lows, as progress in US–Iran talks raised expectations of improved global oil supply. The US Treasury issued a 60-day license authorizing the production, shipment, and sale of Iranian oil. While both sides reported progress in early talks toward a broader agreement, inconsistencies remain, with Vice President JD Vance stating that Iran agreed to allow nuclear inspections, an assertion Tehran has disputed. Meanwhile, the US–Iran diplomacy has eased pressure on American motorists, contributing to lower fuel costs at the pump, with gasoline prices falling for a sixth straight week and down roughly 15% from their May peak. Elsewhere, US refining supply faced short-term disruptions, with TotalEnergies’ 238,000 bpd Port Arthur refinery shut after a lightning outage and Marathon’s 631,000 bpd Galveston Bay facility hit by a fire.

Gasoline Prices Hold Below $3

Silver traded near $65 an ounce on Tuesday, halting a recent decline as early signs of progress in ongoing peace talks between the US and Iran helped ease concerns about inflation. In a significant development, Washington issued Tehran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, fueling expectations of a faster recovery in global supply. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased, with producers such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative ways to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Precious metals have come under constant pressure since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February, as disruptions to energy flows through Hormuz drove oil prices higher and reinforced expectations that central banks raise interest rates to contain inflation.

Silver Finds Support

Gold held near $4,200 an ounce on Tuesday, maintaining gains from the previous session as early signs of progress in ongoing peace talks between the US and Iran helped ease concerns about inflation. In a significant development, Washington issued Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, fueling expectations of a faster recovery in global supply. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased, with producers such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative ways to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Gold has come under constant pressure since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February, as disruptions to energy flows through Hormuz drove oil prices higher and reinforced expectations that central banks raise interest rates to contain inflation.

Gold Steady as Iran Talks Ease Inflation Concerns

Brent stabilized above $78 per barrel on Tuesday after facing pressure in the previous session, as investors assessed signs of initial progress in ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland. In a key development, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, raising expectations of a quicker recovery in global supply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also picked up, with producers including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative routes to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear program remains a major point of contention after Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to admit nuclear inspectors, a claim Iranian officials have denied.

Brent Steadies as US-Iran Talks Continue

Crude oil stabilized above $74 per barrel on Tuesday after facing pressure in the previous session, as investors assessed signs of initial progress in ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland. In a key development, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, raising expectations of a quicker recovery in global supply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also picked up, with producers including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative routes to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear program remains a major point of contention after Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to admit nuclear inspectors, a claim Iranian officials have denied.

Oil Steadies as US-Iran Talks Continue

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.70 per pound, after touching May highs earlier in the month, supported by a stronger US dollar and signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened coffee supply chains by pushing up global shipping, insurance, fertiliser, and fuel costs, increasing pressure on coffee importers and roasters. At the same time, traders are closely monitoring the El Niño weather pattern, with attention extending beyond the current harvest to its potential impact on Brazil’s 2026/27 production cycle. Coffee trader Commercial noted that El Niño could delay seasonal rains in Brazil this September and October, a critical period for tree flowering, potentially weighing on the country’s upcoming crop. Brazil’s coffee harvest for the 2026/27 season has reached 39% of the planted area as of June 17, according to Safras & Mercado, below 43% a year earlier and slightly under the five-year average of 40%.

Coffee Prices Below Recent Highs

EU Carbon Permits increased to 81.35 EUR, the highest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, EU Carbon Permits gained 5.32%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 10.32%.

EU Carbon Permits Hits 18-week High

US heating oil prices fell to below $3.14 per gallon, near the lowest since early March, as progress in US-Iran peace talks fueled expectations of easing energy shortages and weaker fuel price pressures. Markets reacted to reports that Washington and Tehran agreed on a roadmap toward a final agreement within 60 days, while the US Treasury authorized production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products for two months. A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could mark a major shift for global energy markets, restoring traffic through a route that normally handles about a quarter of global seaborne oil shipments. The prospect of returning supply has already pushed Brent crude below $79 per barrel, its lowest level since early March. US refiners are also adjusting operations after months of disruption, producing record levels of jet fuel while reducing gasoline output to capture stronger margins.

Heating Oil Falls Toward 3-1/2-Month Low

Brent crude oil extended losses to around $78 per barrel on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since early March, following reports that the US and Iran have agreed to a roadmap aimed at securing a final peace agreement within 60 days. In addition, the US Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products for 60 days, boosting expectations of a faster supply recovery. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased. Data showed millions of barrels still flowing through the chokepoint over the weekend. Iran has increased visible oil shipments through Hormuz to the highest level since the conflict began and cut prices for cargoes sold to China. Gulf producers are preparing to raise output, with Kuwait lifting force majeure notices and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC resuming supply operations. A full reopening of Hormuz could release about 80 million barrels into the market, adding pressure to prices as demand remains weak.

Brent Drops Toward $78

Crude oil extended losses to around $74 per barrel on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since early March, following reports that the US and Iran have agreed to a roadmap aimed at securing a final peace agreement within 60 days. In addition, the US Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products for 60 days, boosting expectations of a faster supply recovery. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased. Data showed millions of barrels still flowing through the chokepoint over the weekend. Iran has increased visible oil shipments through Hormuz to the highest level since the conflict began and cut prices for cargoes sold to China. Gulf producers are preparing to raise output, with Kuwait lifting force majeure notices and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC resuming supply operations. A full reopening of Hormuz could release about 80 million barrels into the market, adding pressure to prices as demand remains weak.

Crude Oil Falls Toward $74

The Baltic Exchange dry bulk freight index declined 1.4% to 2,684 on Monday, reflecting broad weakness across all vessel categories. The capesize index, which typically carries around 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell 1.8% to 4,074. The panamax index, covering vessels that usually transport 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal or grain, also dropped 1.8% to 2,059. Also, the supramax index slipped 0.2% to 1,715.

Baltic Dry Index Falls on Monday

Rubber traded around 230 US cents per kilogram, holding near its highest level since late 2023 as markets balanced optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement with concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could disrupt production. Weather risks and firm demand from the automotive sector have supported prices, keeping sentiment positive. Demand signals from the auto sector remain mixed but broadly supportive. China’s vehicle sales rose to 2.63 million units in May, driven by passenger cars, while global tire makers continued expanding. Sailun Tire announced a $1.14 billion tire project in Egypt, adding major capacity for passenger, truck, and off-road tires. Michelin remained the world’s most valuable tire brand, while Giti Tire ranked as the fastest-growing. Pirelli also extended its Formula 1 tire supply deal through 2028, reinforcing long-term demand visibility for the rubber industry.

Rubber Consolidates Near 2-1/2-Year High

Palladium held near $1,270 per ounce, remaining close to its lowest level since late September as easing geopolitical risk premiums and softer energy markets weighed on sentiment. US and Iran negotiators reported major advances toward a longer term settlement, helping calm fears of severe supply disruptions through key shipping routes, even as tensions persist from the conflict in Lebanon involving Israel and Hezbollah. Lower crude oil prices have reduced inflation pressures and eased fears of further energy driven tightening, but expectations of higher for longer interest rates continue to pressure non yielding assets like palladium. Market sentiment is also undermined by a projected surplus in the platinum group metals complex. On the demand side, structural change in China’s auto sector adds further headwinds, with electric vehicles rapidly gaining share and reducing long term demand expectations for palladium used in catalytic converters in traditional combustion engines.

Palladium Hovers Near 8-Month Low

Crude Oil WTI decreased 4.02% to 74.226 USD/Bbl

Crude Oil WTI is down by 4.02%

Copper futures were above $6.35 per pound on Monday as the pullback in energy prices improved the outlook for broad manufacturing demand. Iran stated that the start of discussions with the US were promising to follow up on their memorandum of understanding signed in the previous week. The document sought to restore exports of oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz, improving the margins for goods producers and benefiting base metals with broad use. At the same time, the decrease in borrowing costs from the developments improved prospects for data center operators to raise cash for new projects. Data centers require 5,000 to 50,000 tons of copper per facility, per BHP, set to lift consumption in the near future. In turn, a sharper rebound was prevented by the return of sulfuric acid supply from prospects of peace in the Middle East, key for the copper refining chain, while Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia.

Copper Pares Early Losses

Wheat futures eased to around $6 per bushel, down from a three-week high of $6.13 on June 17, as crude oil declined and tanker traffic continued through the Strait of Hormuz amid progress in US–Iran talks, reducing war-risk premiums. Weaker oil also points to cheaper ocean freight, which may further pressure delivered wheat values. In the European Union, exporters face a tougher outlook as Morocco is set to import less after a drought recovery, while Black Sea suppliers remain highly competitive. Competition from lower-cost exporters such as Russia and Ukraine continues to cap prices, alongside weakening demand from Algeria and China. Argentina and Australia are expected to produce less, while strong crops in Russia and Ukraine, as well as firmer output in Turkey and Syria, could intensify competition. Meanwhile, Egypt has purchased 4.7 million tons of wheat and is on track to meet its 5 million-ton target, backing its subsidised bread program.

Wheat Falls from 3-Week High

Brent crude oil fell to around $79.2 per barrel on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since early March as easing geopolitical tensions and progress in US-Iran negotiations supported expectations of a gradual recovery in Persian Gulf supply flows. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks in Switzerland had made “major progress” toward stabilising the wider regional situation, despite earlier volatility and threats to suspend discussions. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides had agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a potential final agreement, alongside ongoing technical discussions and the establishment of a monitoring mechanism.  Also, shipping data indicated continued movement through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Market participants also pointed to rising Iranian exports via the waterway, including discounted crude sales to China, as evidence of efforts to maintain market share despite the conflict.

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