The Canadian dollar traded above 1.40 per USD, as the relief spike after Parliament approved the budget eased, but that one-off bid quickly faded because the deeper drivers for the loonie did not change. October inflation cooled to 2.2% which weakens the case for a persistently tighter Bank of Canada and limits Canada’s carry advantage now that the policy rate sits at 2.25%. Domestic activity also looks soft, with housing starts plunging about 17% in October, so there is little evidence of the growth pickup that would lift Canadian yields relative to the United States. The commodity channel has been unreliable as oil swung around on inventory prints and profit taking, removing a steady external bid for the currency. Elsewhere, shifts in Fed cut odds and episodes of firmer US rates have allowed the dollar to reclaim ground when yields move against Canada, so the relief-driven rally lacked the follow through needed to sustain a stronger CAD.

Canadian Dollar Eases Past 1.4 USD

The Mexican peso strengthened toward 18.45 per USD, closing in on July 2024 highs amid easing domestic inflation and a cautious outlook for the Bank of Mexico. Headline CPI eased to 3.57% in October and core inflation retreated into the low fours. Banxico’s 25 basis point cut to 7.25% carried a cautious, data dependent tone that signalled gradual easing rather than a shock to policy and reduced the odds of surprise moves. Because the adjustment was widely priced the direct yield impact was muted so markets instead reacted through recalibrated risk premia and renewed carry flows that favoured peso assets. Softer US growth signals and the ending of the longest government shutdown removed a safe haven bid for the dollar while mixed US data including initial jobless claims at 232,000 and continuing claims at 1.957 million and markets pricing roughly a 47% chance of a December Fed cut further trimmed dollar support and enhanced the relative appeal of Mexican paper.

Mexican Peso Near July 2024 Highs

The dollar index inched higher to 99.8 on Wednesday, approaching the five-month high of 100.2 touched earlier in November amid tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut next month. Official unemployment claim aggregates from late October indicated some degree of stability in joblessness, limiting worries of an uncontrolled weakening in the labor market suggested by private surveys. Rate futures moved to indicate that half of the market expects the FOMC to hold rates unchanged in their final decision of the year, contrasting with the near consensus of a 25bps cut that was expected last week. Upcoming FOMC minutes from a meeting which included opposing dissents may offer hints on an increasingly fragmented Fed. The DXY also benefited from a weakening yen, as PM Takaichi signaled aggressive stimulus that pressured JGB's that is likely to continue bloating the BoJ's balance sheet.

US Dollar Extends Upswing

The South African rand traded around 17.2 per USD, holding close to the highest since September 2024, mainly supported by rising prices of gold. Meanwhile, local investors assessed the latest inflation data and its implications for the South African Reserve Bank's decision on November 20. South Africa's inflation rate quickened to 3.6% in October, from 3.4% in September, but below the expected 3.7%.

South African Rand Remains Firm

The Indonesian rupiah strengthened to around 16,700 on Wednesday afternoon, snapping six sessions of weakness after the central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 4.75%, as expected. The decision reflected confidence that inflation will remain within the 2.5±1% target range, alongside efforts to stabilize the currency amid global uncertainty and improve policy transmission. The hold follows an October pause after 150 bps of cuts over the past year aimed at supporting growth. President Prabowo Subianto seeks to lift economic growth to 8% during his term, up from around 5% before the pandemic. Despite the rebound, the rupiah remains down about 3.8% against the dollar this year. Governor Perry Warjiyo said in a media briefing that there is still room for further cuts, but stressed that future moves will be data-dependent. Globally, the dollar index hovered near 99.6 as fading expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut persisted amid sticky inflation, while investors awaited key US data.

Rupiah Firms as BI Holds Rates

The British pound held steady near $1.31, close to the seven-month low reached earlier this month, after fresh data showed a notable easing in UK inflation. The slowdown offered relief for both the Bank of England and the UK government, while giving Finance Minister Rachel Reeves added momentum as she prepares to deliver a pivotal budget next week. Headline inflation dropped to 3.6% in October, driven by lower household electricity and heating costs following changes to the Ofgem energy price cap, as well as cheaper hotel prices. Services inflation eased more than expected, slipping to 4.5%, while core inflation moderated to 3.4%. Reeves has pledged to reduce living costs in her upcoming 26 November tax and spending statement, aiming to steer inflation lower and smooth the path for possible Bank of England interest-rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains supported as investors await September’s key jobs report due on Thursday, keeping broader currency markets cautious.

Pound Steadies as Cooling UK Inflation Eases Pressure Ahead of Key Budget

The Indonesian rupiah was little changed, holding around 16,730 per dollar on Wednesday, as traders awaited the central bank’s policy decision later in the day. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate at 4.75%, maintaining October’s stance after delivering a total of 150 bps of cuts over the past year to support government efforts to boost growth. However, Governor Perry Warjiyo noted that lending rates have fallen by only about 15 bps, suggesting banks remain cautious and depositors continue to demand higher returns. The local currency has weakened roughly 3.8% against the dollar so far this year, making it one of the softest performers in emerging Asia. Externally, the dollar index hovered near 99.6 amid fading expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut due to sticky inflation, while investors looked to upcoming US economic data for guidance.

Rupiah Steadies Ahead of BI Rate Decision

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.563, hovering near a seven-month low, amid expectations that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates again next week. Markets have fully priced in a 25bps reduction, following a run of weak economic indicators that reinforced the need for further policy stimulus. Adding to this, data out today showed producer prices rose less than expected in third quarter, signaling that price pressures are easing. However, analysts recently noted that this could be the final cut in the current easing cycle, barring any significant deterioration in global economic conditions. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump last week lifted tariffs on more than 200 food products in response to rising US grocery prices. The affected goods account for about 25% of New Zealand’s exports to the US, a move that is expected to provide support to the Antipodean country’s export sector.

Kiwi Dollar Pressured by RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

The Japanese yen held around 155.5 per dollar on Wednesday, pausing a recent decline as investors assessed the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook following a meeting between Governor Kazuo Ueda and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. On Tuesday, Ueda told Takaichi that the central bank is gradually raising interest rates to steer inflation toward its 2% target while supporting sustainable economic growth. After the meeting, he told reporters that the prime minister made no specific requests on monetary policy. Market views remain divided on whether the BOJ will raise rates again in December amid mixed economic signals. On the data front, Japan’s machinery orders rose more than expected in September, pointing to robust capital spending. Still, the yen traded close to ten-month lows amid expectations of large-scale fiscal spending under the new administration.

Yen Steadies After Takaichi-Ueda Meeting

The Australian dollar traded around $0.650, moving sideways near a two-week low, as investors weighed the RBA’s hawkish stance against cautious global risk sentiment and a firmer US dollar. Minutes from the RBA’s November policy meeting showed the central bank could hold rates steady for an extended period if data continues to surprise on the upside. Latest data showing steady Q3 wage growth, alongside last week’s upbeat jobs report and a sticky inflation reading, reinforced expectations that the easing cycle is over. Swaps imply just a 50% probability of a final RBA cut in May next year. Meanwhile, the Aussie, often used as a proxy for risk due to Australia’s reliance on commodity exports linked to global growth, remained under pressure after global stocks fell on concerns about lofty artificial intelligence valuations. A stronger US dollar added to the downside as investors tempered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut while awaiting key economic data.

Aussie Dollar Sideways Near 2-Week Low

The dollar index was little changed around 99.6 on Wednesday, holding gains from earlier in the week amid tempered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut, as investors awaited key economic data for guidance. Markets now price in roughly a 47% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction in December, down from over 90% a month ago. Several Fed officials cautioned against further cuts amid inflationary risks, though Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for easing rates given signs of labor market weakness. The latest Labor Department data showed initial jobless claims at 232K for the week ended October 18, with continuing claims at 1.957 million, the highest since August. The highly-anticipated September jobs report will be released on Thursday. Markets will also watch earnings from major US retailers for clues on consumer spending.

Dollar Holds Steady as Fed Outlook Mulled

The dollar index stabilised around 99.5 on Tuesday, pausing the modest gains recorded over the previous two sessions, as traders remained cautious and refrained from taking large positions ahead of key economic releases. The latest Labor Department data showed initial jobless claims at 232K for the week ended October 18, while continuing claims reached 1.957 million, the highest level since August. US statistical agencies have begun publishing data that was delayed due to the government shutdown, with the jobs report scheduled for Thursday. Investors are concerned that those figures could limit the Fed’s ability to deliver further rate cuts, especially as many policymakers have expressed scepticism about the need for additional easing. The market currently assigns roughly a 46% probability of a 25 bps reduction in the federal funds rate next month. The greenback was largely unchanged across major currencies but traded mostly higher against the Swiss franc and the yen.

Dollar Little Changed

The Indonesian rupiah weakened past 16,750 per dollar on Tuesday, marking its sixth straight session of losses amid caution ahead of Bank Indonesia’s rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate at 4.75% after cutting a total of 150 basis points over the past year. Still, mild inflation this year and next could provide room for further easing, according to Governor Perry Warjiyo, who also noted that current economic growth of around 5% remains below the country’s potential. President Prabowo Subianto aims to lift growth to 8% during his term. So far this year, the rupiah has fallen about 3.8% against the dollar, making it one of the weakest performers in emerging Asia amid a persistent current account deficit and softer prices for key export commodities such as coal and palm oil. Globally, the dollar index held steady near 99.5 ahead of a series of delayed U.S. economic releases this week, including September’s non-farm payrolls report.

Rupiah Downtrend Persists Ahead of Rate Decision

The Hong Kong Dollar touched 7.78 against the USD, the lowest since October 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Hong Kong Dollar gained 0.12%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.07%.

Hong Kong Dollar Hits 5-week Low

The dollar index held steady at 99.5 on Tuesday after two days of gains, as investors awaited a series of delayed US economic data this week that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Among the key releases, September’s non-farm payrolls report on Thursday is expected to be closely scrutinized. Several Fed officials have recently expressed doubts about the likelihood of another rate cut in December, citing concerns about persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Chris Waller and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Monday highlighted growing risks to the labor market. Waller reaffirmed his support for a rate cut next month, while Jefferson suggested the central bank should proceed “slowly” with further reductions. Markets are currently pricing in a 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut in December, down from over 60% earlier this month. The dollar has risen notably against both the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

Dollar Holds Gain as Investors Await US Data

The Japanese yen traded around 155.2 per dollar, approaching its lowest level in ten months ahead of the crucial meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Traders will be watching the talks closely for hints on the BOJ’s next steps and how policymakers may manage pressure on the yen, amid speculation that Takaichi will advocate a cautious approach to rate hikes while planning a larger-than-expected fiscal package. The meeting follows data showing Japan’s economy shrank 1.8% on an annualized basis over the summer, the first drop in six quarters, as construction regulations and US tariffs weighed on activity. Some economists argued the headline exaggerated the slowdown, but the report is likely to strengthen Takaichi’s resolve for bold stimulus. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also voiced unease over the yen’s sharp, one-sided moves, citing concerns about the broader economic impact of a weaker currency.

Yen Nears Ten-Month Low

The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.649 on Tuesday, recouping some losses from the previous session, as the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled continued caution and emphasized a data-dependent approach to future monetary policy during its latest minutes. Earlier this month, the central bank held the cash rate at 3.60%, highlighting its reluctance to ease policy further amid persistently high inflation, robust consumer demand, and a renewed upswing in the housing market. Moreover, concerns about a weakening labor market were largely overstated, as employment surged while the unemployment rate fell in October. This prompted markets to significantly discount the likelihood of near-term policy easing, with only a 40% probability of a rate cut in May next year currently priced in. Nonetheless, the RBA acknowledged that certain scenarios could still warrant monetary easing, particularly if the labor market softens or if the broader economic recovery lags.

Aussie Dollar Edges Higher

The Japanese Yen touched 155.06 against the USD, the lowest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Japanese Yen gained 2.85%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.27%.

Japanese Yen Hits 40-week Low

The Canadian dollar steadied around 1.40 per USD, holding to its rebound from the seven-month low of 1.412 on November 6th as markets weighed persistent price pressures against a firm labor market. The trimmed-mean core inflation rate, the BoC's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, eased to 3% in October but remained close to last month’s peak since February 2024. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada likely concluded its rate-cutting cycle at the previous meeting, as policymakers indicated if their base case holds, with the economy showing resilience to US tariffs and core inflation measures still above target. Earlier, the unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October from the four-year high of 7.1% in September, supported by a sharp employment gain and fewer jobseekers. Wage growth also accelerated to an eight-month high of 4%, outpacing the latest inflation readings.

Canadian Dollar Steady After Inflation Data

The Brazilian real weakened past 5.30 per US dollar retreating from May 2024 highs as growing odds of a dovish turn at the central bank coincided with the US dollar paring some of last week’s losses. Growth signals softened with the IBC-Br down 0.2% in September and preliminary Q3 activity contracting about 0.9% quarter on quarter, a combination that dents export receipts and weakens near term tax revenue prospects. The central bank left the Selic at 15% and its president stressed a strictly data dependent path for policy which raised uncertainty over when rates will fall. Meanwhile, markets trimmed the probability of a December Fed cut lifting US rate expectations and tightening the cross border carry trade while the resumption of US economic releases removed the information vacuum that had helped emerging market inflows. Softer industrial activity in China has also weakened commodity prices and volumes, reducing the trade impulse that normally supports the currency.

Brazilian Real Losses Ground After GDP Preview

The Swiss franc eased slightly to around 0.795 per USD, but remained near 2011-highs, buoyed by relief after the Swiss government secured a reduced 15% US tariff, down from the previous 39%, the highest ever imposed on a developed nation. Latest data showed Switzerland’s export oriented economy contracted in the third quarter for the first time in over two years, largely reflecting the impact of US outsized tariffs. The franc also drew support from expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its policy rate at 0% in December amid forecasts of rising inflation. SNB officials have expressed confidence in a gradual upward trend in inflation, with Vice President Antoine Martin noting that it is “expected to increase slightly” in the coming quarters. Safe-haven demand also persisted amid lingering global economic uncertainty, amplified by delayed US data following the extended government shutdown.

Swiss Franc Holds Firm

The euro held around $1.16 at the start of a quiet week, with investors awaiting European Central Bank speeches and key US economic data delayed by the government shutdown, including September’s employment report, for guidance on Federal Reserve policy. Earlier on Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation will converge toward the bank’s target, but cautioned about tariffs, sovereign debt, and the risks of a sudden shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the European Commission raised its Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3%, up from 0.9% in its spring outlook, citing a surge in exports to the US as companies stocked up ahead of Trump-era tariffs. Growth is then expected to slow to 1.2% in 2026, down from 1.4%, before rising to 1.4% in 2027.

Euro Steady as Investors Eye ECB Speeches and US Data

The South African rand traded just below 17.1 per USD, holding close to its highest since January 2023, as traders welcomed the S&P Global's first credit upgrade of the country since 2005 following the latest budget review that showed signs of fiscal commitment. Meanwhile, the focus is shifting to October consumer inflation figures and September retail sales data on November 19, followed by the central bank's interest rate decision on November 20.

South African Rand at 2023-Highs

The South Korean won weakened to around 1,460 per dollar on Monday, retreating from significant gains in the previous session amid sustained capital outflows. Corporate and institutional investors remain active in reallocating funds abroad, driven in part by South Korea’s commitments under the US trade deal. The agreement requires major conglomerates, including Samsung, SK, and Hyundai, to invest USD 350 billion in US industries. With companies pledging significant domestic investments, the scale of overseas funding requirements reinforces the structural demand for dollars, keeping downward pressure on the won. Investor caution persisted following remarks from BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong that policy adjustments would depend on incoming data, which markets interpreted as lowering the likelihood of further rate cuts. At the same time, the won was further tempered as the dollar remained generally supported ahead of delayed US economic data.

South Korean Won Slides Amid Persistent Capital Outflows

The Indonesian rupiah hovered around 16,730 per dollar on Monday, marking its fifth straight session of losses as markets awaited Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy meeting later this week. In October, the central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 4.75% following total cuts of 150 basis points since September 2024. However, Governor Perry Warjiyo noted that subdued inflation this year and next provides room for potential future rate reductions. Meanwhile, policymakers aim to support economic growth, which Warjiyo said remains below the country’s potential output. Investors also anticipated Indonesia’s Q3 current account data, following the 9th consecutive deficit and the largest in a year during Q2. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s forex reserves stayed near a 14-month low in October, reflecting ongoing pressure from capital outflows and import payments. Globally, the dollar index inched higher to above 99.4, ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data releases delayed by the government shutdown.

Rupiah Dips Further as BI Policy Rate Looms

The Taiwanese dollar fell past 31 per US dollar, returning to its lowest level since early May after sharp swings over the recent two sessions. The currency surged last week following a joint statement from Taiwan’s central bank and the US Treasury, which said they would refrain from intervening in exchange rates or the international monetary system to gain an unfair competitive advantage, and that FX intervention would be used only to manage volatility. In a separate statement, the central bank noted that the US did not request currency appreciation and that the joint statement is unrelated to ongoing tariff negotiations, dispelling speculation that authorities might allow the currency to strengthen to support a trade deal. Meanwhile, Taiwanese officials said talks with the US are nearing conclusion, with local media reporting that both sides have agreed to reduce the previously announced 20% reciprocal tariff.

Taiwanese Dollar Slides Back to May Lows

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.565, giving back some of last week’s gains, as expectations of an imminent rate cut from the Reserve Bank overshadowed the US decision to roll back tariffs on Kiwi exports. Food prices declined for the second straight month, while the services sector remained in contraction, reinforcing expectations for a 25 bps cut later this month. However, analysts noted that this may be the final move in the easing cycle unless global conditions worsen. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump lifted tariffs on more than 200 food products in response to rising US grocery prices. The affected items make up about 25% of New Zealand’s exports to the US, and the move is expected to support the Antipodean nation’s export sector by improving market access, boosting demand for key agricultural goods, and enhancing the overall trade outlook.

New Zealand Dollar Weakens

The Japanese yen slipped to around 154.6 per dollar on Monday, staying close to its lowest level since February despite stronger-than-expected growth data. Japan's economy contracted 0.4% quarter on quarter in the three months to September, reversing a 0.6% expansion in Q2 but beating market forecasts for a 0.6% decline. The currency remains under pressure after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy should support both robust economic growth and stable price increases. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted resilient consumption fueled by higher household incomes and a strengthening labor market, noting that underlying inflation is gradually approaching the BOJ's 2% target and leaving the door open for an imminent rate hike.

Yen Hovers Near 9-Month Low

The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.652 on Monday, reversing gains from the previous week as a stronger greenback weighed on the currency. The US dollar appreciated after Fed officials expressed doubts about the need for a December rate cut, with some dismissing the possibility outright. Markets now assign roughly a 46% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month, significantly lower than the approximately 88% priced in earlier. In Australia, investors also pared back expectations for monetary easing. They have largely discarded the likelihood of an RBA rate cut this year, as recent economic indicators have provided insufficient justification for loosening. Notably, stronger-than-expected employment data recalibrated bets, with swaps now pricing in only a 43.9% probability of a rate cut in May 2026, down sharply from nearly 70% previously. Investors turn their attention to tomorrow’s RBA meeting minutes, seeking more clues on future policy moves.

Aussie Dollar Weakens on Stronger Greenback

The dollar index inched above 99.3 on Monday, recovering part of last weeks losses as investors prepared for a wave of US economic data releases delayed by the government shutdown to better guide expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The closely watched September jobs report is due Thursday while markets await an updated timetable for other indicators. Meanwhile, key private reports this week include flash S&P PMIs, existing home sales, the NAHB housing index, and the weekly ADP employment aggregate. Several Fed officials have recently voiced doubt about the need for a December rate cut with some rejecting the idea outright. Markets are now assigning about a 46% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month, down sharply from roughly 88% one month earlier. The dollar advanced broadly, with the strongest gains coming against the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of Data Releases

The Swiss franc strengthened further, trading near 0.79 per USD, a fresh low since July 2011, after the Swiss government confirmed it had secured a 15% tariff deal with the Trump administration. The agreement finally resolves a dispute that has dragged on since August, triggered by Trump’s abrupt move to raise tariffs on Swiss exports to 39%, more than double those facing the EU. At the same time, the franc remained supported by expectations of accelerating inflation. SNB officials have expressed confidence that inflation will rise in the coming quarters, with Vice President Antoine Martin noting that it “is expected to increase slightly,” reinforcing bets that the central bank will maintain its policy stance at 0% at its next meeting on December 11.
Safe-haven demand also persisted amid lingering global uncertainty, driven by the absence of key economic data, even after the US government shutdown ended.

Swiss Franc Firms

The Mexican peso weakened past 18.35 per US dollar, retreating from the July 2024 highs it reached on November 12th, as the initial post-shutdown risk appetite induced rally faded when markets scaled back expectations for a dovish Fed. Traders now assign roughly a coin-flip chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, down from near 65% earlier in the week after several Fed officials questioned the case for another easing given economic resilience and lingering inflation uncertainty. Domestically, inflation eased with headline CPI at 3.57% in October and core inflation retreating into the low fours, and Banxico’s 25 basis point cut to 7.25% came with a cautious, data dependent tone that signalled gradual easing rather than a shock to policy, which narrowed the likelihood of surprise cuts.

Mexican Peso Retreats from July 2024 Highs

The dollar index fell to 99.1 on Friday, its lowest level this month, extending a 0.3% decline from the previous session. Traders continued to reassess the outlook for the US economy while awaiting the revised release schedule for delayed economic indicators. Some reports may be released soon, while others might never be published. Meanwhile, markets lowered the probability of a December Fed rate cut to below 50%, down from nearly 65% earlier in the week. The shift followed comments from several officials expressing doubts about the need for a third consecutive rate reduction, citing the economy’s resilience and lingering uncertainty around inflation. At the same time, risk-off sentiment boosted demand for traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Conversely, the greenback strengthened against the British pound as concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook weighed on sterling. On the week, the dollar lost 0.4%.

Dollar Down for 2nd Day

The Swiss franc continued to appreciate to around 0.79 per USD, holding close to its highest since July 2011, boosted by safe-haven demand amid lingering global economic uncertainty despite the end of the US government shutdown. The currency also remained supported by expectations of accelerating domestic inflation. SNB officials have expressed confidence that inflation will increase in the coming quarters, with Vice President Antoine Martin noting recently that it “is expected to rise slightly,” reducing expectations of a return to negative rates. At the same time, hopes that Switzerland is close to securing a reduced 15% tariff on exports to the US gave the Swiss currency an additional boost.

Swiss Franc at 2011-Highs

The British pound weakened to around $1.315 on Friday amid heightened budget uncertainty, after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is dropping plans to raise income tax. The move follows improved forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which cut the expected fiscal shortfall from roughly £35 billion to around £20 billion. Reeves is not expected to break Labour’s pledge on headline income-tax rates, instead likely using threshold adjustments and changes to salary-sacrifice programs to raise revenue. She had prepared two budget options, one with major tax hikes, another with smaller measures, and is now pursuing the latter. The budget, due on November 26, faces cabinet debate over policies including exit taxes and limited liability partnerships. Markets pared bets on Bank of England rate cuts, with about 75% probability for a December move, but rising gilt yields continue to complicate the UK’s fiscal outlook and weigh on the pound ahead of the announcement.

Sterling Falls on Budget Uncertainty

The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.568 on Friday, heading for a weekly gain, supported by a weaker US dollar as attention shifts to the upcoming release of delayed US economic reports following the end of the country’s longest government shutdown. Investors worry that the data may reveal a slowing US economy, which would strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The kiwi also found support from local data showing that New Zealand’s manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth straight month in October, driven by rising new orders and improved demand. However, upside for the currency remains limited amid expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later this month, reinforced by soft jobs data and a subdued inflation outlook. Markets are largely pricing in a 25bps rate cut, with a 10% chance of a larger 50bps move. For the week, the New Zealand dollar is up 1%, poised to snap a two-week losing streak.

Kiwi Dollar Rises on Weaker Greenback

The offshore yuan weakened to around 7.09 per dollar on Friday, retreating from a two-week high reached in the previous session as disappointing economic data weighed on market sentiment. Fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% year-on-year in January–October 2025, a sharper decline than both market expectations and the previous month’s reading. In addition, industrial output eased to a more-than-one-year low of 4.9% in October, while retail sales posted its fifth consecutive month of deceleration and the weakest growth in over a year at 2.9%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1%, compared to market expectations and the prior month’s level. The latest economic data, together with a recent surprise contraction in exports, has intensified concerns about China’s growth outlook and the strain on global trading partners facing increased competition from Chinese goods. Despite Friday’s losses, the yuan remains on track for a weekly gain.

Offshore Yuan Weakens on Disappointing Data

The British pound weakened to around $1.31, near a seven-month low following reports that the government abandoned plans to raise income-tax rates ahead of the November 26 budget. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves scrapped earlier proposals to hike basic and higher tax bands, opting instead for less-direct revenue measures amid a £30?billion fiscal gap, FT reported. The major U-turn raised concerns over fiscal discipline and political stability, prompting investors to pull back from sterling-linked assets and adding pressure on UK debt. The currency was further weighed down by weaker-than-expected economic data, as the economy grew only modestly in Q3, while September GDP contracted month-on-month. The disappointing figures have fueled expectations of a Bank of England rate cut next month, following earlier data showing the jobless rate at a four-year high and pay growth slowing to its weakest since early 2022.

Sterling Falls as UK Scraps Tax Hikes

The South Korean won appreciated past 1,460 per dollar on Friday, rebounding from multi-month lows as policymakers moved to reassure markets and address volatility in the foreign exchange market. Investor sentiment was lifted after senior economic officials convened an emergency policy meeting, signaling a readiness to deploy a wide range of tools and to work with large market participants such as the National Pension Service and major exporters to correct structural imbalances in US dollar demand and supply. The coordinated communication, the most explicit since the authorities last issued verbal guidance in October, alleviated concerns regarding further depreciation and encouraged market participants to reduce dollar positions, enabling the won to recover part of its recent losses.

Won Recovers Amid Market Stabilization Efforts

The dollar index hovered around 99.2 on Friday, poised for a second consecutive weekly decline amid concerns that a backlog of US data following the government reopening could reveal a slowing economy. The greenback’s recent drop coincided with a selloff in US stocks and bonds, reflecting weakening confidence in American assets amid heightened uncertainty. President Donald Trump signed a short term funding bill this week that ended the longest US government shutdown in history, clearing the way for a backlog of economic reports. However, the White House said some October figures may never be released as certain agencies could not collect data during the shutdown, adding to uncertainty. Markets have also trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a 25 bps reduction versus over 95% a month ago, though expectations for cuts next year remain intact.

Dollar Set for Weekly Fall on Economic Worries

The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.3 per US dollar hovering near July 2024 highs amid easing domestic inflation and a cautious Banxico cut, while weaker US growth signals and progress on ending the government shutdown eroded the dollar’s value. Domestic inflation eased with headline CPI at 3.57% in October and core inflation retreating into the low fours, and Banxico’s 25 basis point cut to 7.25% came with a cautious, data dependent tone that signalled gradual easing rather than a shock to policy, which narrowed the likelihood of surprise cuts. At the same time US growth signals softened and progress toward ending the prolonged government shutdown removed an extraordinary safe haven bid for dollars, shifting positioning toward higher yielding EM instruments. With the policy move widely anticipated, the direct yield impact was muted, so the dominant forces were recalibrated risk premia, renewed carry flows.

Mexican Peso Appreciates to July 2024 Highs

The rand continued its upward momentum, crossing the 17-per-dollar threshold, its highest level since January 2023, propelled by investor optimism over the budget review, a subdued dollar and rising prices of gold. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered an optimistic and credible budget speech on November 12, emphasizing efforts to stabilize public debt. He announced a major policy shift, introducing a 3% inflation target with a 1% tolerance band, replacing the previous 3–6% range, and unveiled a ZAR 1 trillion infrastructure investment programme over the next three years. The tighter band aims to strengthen price stability and help consumers and businesses plan long-term investments with greater confidence.

South African Rand Crosses 17 Mark

The US dollar index reversed early gains to trade lower around 99.3 on Thursday, as initial optimism following the end of the US government shutdown gave way to renewed caution over the country’s economic outlook. Investors are preparing for the release of several key economic indicators that were delayed during the longest US government shutdown on record. Early private-sector data have pointed to a softening labor market and fragile consumer sentiment, while inflation concerns continue to linger. Meanwhile, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at next month’s Federal Reserve meeting have eased to about 54%, down from nearly 65% a day earlier.

Dollar Edges Lower

The euro rose above $1.16, near its strongest level since late October, as risk appetite improved following the reopening of the US federal government, while investors awaited further guidance on ECB and Fed policy. US President Donald Trump signed a bill late Wednesday ending the 43-day government shutdown, allowing the release of a backlog of US economic data, although Washington cautioned that October employment and inflation figures may not be published. On monetary policy, the ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady, with markets assigning just a 40% probability of a cut by September 2026. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized that current rates are appropriate, urging the central bank to remain “very prudent and cautious.” Meanwhile, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have grown following weak US labor data, despite divergent views among Fed officials.

Euro Strengthens Above $1.16

The British pound hovered around $1.31, near its seven-month low, and touched a two-and-a-half-year low against the euro, after weaker-than-expected economic data raised expectations of a Bank of England rate cut next month and intensified pressure on Treasury chief Rachel Reeves ahead of the November 26 budget. The UK economy grew just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, down from 0.3% in Q2 and below forecasts of 0.2%, while September GDP contracted 0.1% month-on-month against expectations of 0.1% growth. Data released earlier showed the jobless rate hit a four-year high, and pay growth slowed to its weakest since early 2022. Adding to market jitters, reports of a failed attempt to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership unsettled investors, with allies warning that any leadership move could trigger market instability and push gilt yields higher, just two weeks before the budget.

Sterling Under Pressure Amid Disappointing UK Data

The Indonesian rupiah hovered around 16,720 per dollar on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of losses as investors grew cautious ahead of Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting next week. The central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged in October after cumulative cuts of 150 basis points since September 2024. However, Governor Perry Warjiyo has signaled further easing ahead, with the benchmark rate expected to be lowered by another 50 basis points by the end of March 2026 to support growth momentum. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Q3 current account data, due next week, will draw attention after Q2’s figures showed the ninth consecutive period of deficit and the largest in a year, which was equal to 0.8% of the country's GDP. For 2025, the central bank projects the deficit to remain within 0.5%–1.3% of GDP. On the global front, the US dollar index steadied around 99.5 after President Trump approved a short-term funding bill that ended the record-long US government shutdown.

Rupiah Weakness Persists

The Malaysian ringgit strengthened toward 4.13 per dollar on Thursday, rising for an eighth consecutive session, supported by robust economic momentum and improving investor sentiment. Flash data showed Malaysia’s economy grew 5.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, up from 4.4% in Q2, marking the fastest expansion in a year. Optimism was reinforced by a thaw in US-China trade tensions, benefiting Malaysia as both are its largest export markets, and by renewed foreign interest in local assets. The central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged signaled confidence in the economy’s resilience despite ongoing US tariffs. Foreign investors have purchased nearly MYR 16.52 billion in Malaysian bonds this year, anchoring the currency. The ringgit has gained over 8% this year, making it Asia’s best-performing currency. Meanwhile, the dollar index stabilized near 99.5 after President Trump signed a short-term funding bill, ending the longest US government shutdown in history.

Ringgit Extends Upward Momentum to 8th Session

The Indian rupee hovered around 88.6 per USD, trading in a tight range near all-time lows, after inflation fell to a record trough, fueling expectations of a December rate cut. India’s retail inflation slumped 0.25% to a record low in October, well below the RBI’s 2%-6% tolerance band for a second month. Economists see the decline as paving the way for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, with another possible cut in February. This gives the central bank room to support growth amid slowing economic momentum and ongoing trade pressures from US tariffs on Indian exports. Markets are now on the lookout for signs of positive momentum in US-India trade talks after an Indian official said New Delhi is awaiting Washington’s formal response, following President Trump’s remarks that a deal is close. Analysts say a breakthrough is seen as a major catalyst that could lift the rupee and attract foreign inflows.

Indian Rupee Stuck Near Record Lows

The offshore yuan appreciated past 7.10 per dollar on Thursday, reaching its strongest level in two weeks as investors awaited the release of key economic indicators scheduled tomorrow. Among the forthcoming data, retail sales are expected to decelerate for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest stretch of slowing consumption growth since the post-COVID recovery began to lose momentum more than four years ago. This data, alongside upcoming figures on housing, industrial production, and unemployment, is likely to intensify concerns about a wider weakening in economic growth. Meanwhile, data showed earlier this week that consumer prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in October, rebounding from the previous month and exceeding expectations. Additionally, producer prices fell 2.1%, the softest decline in fourteen months and signaling a gradual easing of deflationary pressures at the factory gate.

Offshore Yuan Hits 2-Week High

The South Korean won depreciated to around 1,469 per dollar, reaching a seven-month low and nearing levels not seen since March 2009. Governor Rhee Chang-yong indicated on Wednesday that policymakers stand ready to act should market volatility intensify. However, he played down recent losses, suggesting the market is overly reactive to global factors such as US monetary policy and rising trade tensions. The lack of a more decisive policy signal from the Bank of Korea has left investors cautious. Persistent equity outflows and increased overseas investments by residents have added to the downward pressure, with foreign investors pulling a net $5.2 billion from local equities, pointing to a sustained uncertainty in the market.

Breaking News

Follow what's happening with real-time updates from around the world.