Moody’s maintained France’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating at Aa3, defying expectations of a downgrade, but kept the outlook negative. The agency cited slower growth and a higher deficit, which have pushed the country’s debt burden above previous projections, as well as rising bond yields and social protests that could hinder fiscal consolidation. French yields have risen more than those of any other developed economy this month, reaching a 24-year high. France’s deficit is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP this year, as political gridlock, sluggish growth and rising interest costs undermine efforts to rein in public debt. Moody’s expects a deficit-reducing 2027 budget to be adopted despite the challenging political and social environment. The rating remains one notch above those of S&P and Fitch, which downgraded France during a budget dispute in autumn 2025. Last month, Scope Ratings also downgraded France, while Morningstar DBRS revised its outlook to negative.

France Avoids Moody’s Downgrade

The Mexican peso strengthened to around 18.64 per US dollar in October, reaching its highest level in nearly a year. The currency appreciated following strong economic activity data, with the Global Indicator of Economic Activity rising 3.5% year over year through August, its strongest performance since September 2023. The exchange rate was also supported by expectations that Mexico and the US could reach a trade agreement, following comments by President Claudia Sheinbaum and US President Donald Trump indicating that the two countries were close to a deal. Meanwhile, annual mid-month inflation rose to 3.62% in October from 3.42% in September, slightly above forecasts of 3.60%. Persistent inflationary pressures could encourage a more hawkish stance by Banxico, while markets largely expect the US Federal Reserve to hold rates at its next meeting. A wider US-Mexico interest rate differential would strengthen the peso’s yield advantage and potentially encourage carry-trade inflows.

Mexican Peso Hits Near One-Year High

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher to around 3.85% in October as expectations for Bank of Canada policy shifted toward tighter monetary conditions. Markets anticipate a more hawkish tone at the BoC’s next policy decision, scheduled for October 28. Governor Tiff Macklem recently said the central bank expects to significantly raise its quarterly inflation forecast this month, following hawkish remarks last week about energy-driven price pressures. Rising oil prices have added to upward pressure on energy costs amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Canadian retail sales are expected to have increased 0.7% month over month in September, extending a 1.2% gain in August, according to preliminary estimates. Stronger retail activity could add to inflation concerns and reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy stance.

Canada’s 10-Year Yield Edges Higher on BoC Rate Hike Bets

Paraguay’s Producer Price Index fell 0.8% year-on-year in September 2026, marking its eighth consecutive annual decrease. The decline was mainly driven by negative contributions from domestic agriculture and horticultural products and live animals and animal products, as well as imported metallic products, machinery and equipment, and food, beverages and tobacco, textiles, and leather products. Meanwhile, domestic non-metallic transportable goods and other manufactured products, along with imported non-metallic transportable goods, made positive contributions, helping to mitigate the overall decline. By product grouping, both domestic and imported products contributed negatively to the annual result.

Paraguay Producer Prices Fall for Eighth Consecutive Month

The Ibovespa rose 0.5% to close at 205,083 on Friday in the final session before Brazil’s presidential runoff, recovering from earlier losses. A Datafolha poll showed President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 50% each of valid votes. Earlier polls indicated a statistical tie. Some market participants view a potential Flávio Bolsonaro administration as more likely to rein in public spending, which they consider essential to lowering interest rates. However, neither the candidate nor his economic advisers have outlined concrete fiscal adjustments. The Ibovespa rallied to record highs after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round. Meanwhile, mid-month inflation came in below expectations, supporting equities. Banking stocks advanced, with BB gaining 3.3%. Bradesco added 0.7% following third-quarter earnings in line with market expectations and the announcement of a share buyback program. Petrobras rose 1.7% as oil prices rose. For the week, the Ibovespa fell 1.0%.

Ibovespa Closes Higher Ahead of Presidential Runoff

AUDUSD increased to 0.70, the highest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Australian Dollar US Dollar gained 0.29%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.98%.

Australian Dollar Hits 4-week High

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.5% to close at 35,788 on Friday as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and technology stocks remained under pressure. Crude prices climbed amid escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and reports of possible renewed US strikes against Iran. Canadian bond yields moved higher, with markets pricing in a Bank of Canada rate hike at its next meeting amid energy-driven inflationary pressures. Major Canadian banks posted losses, with BMO down 0.8% and CIBC falling 0.9%. Technology stocks extended their declines following Thursday’s Wall Street selloff. Celestica fell a further 3.2% after plunging 12% in the previous session. The company is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Monday. Meanwhile, lower gold and silver prices weighed on mining stocks, with Agnico Eagle and Barrick each losing 1.3%. For the week, the TSX declined 0.5%.

TSX Closes Lower as Oil Rally Fuels Inflation Concerns

Paraguay’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.50% at it's October 2026 meeting. The decision came as economic activity remained strong, with the central bank revising its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward from 4.5% to 5.0%, supported by services and utilities. Annual inflation stood at 1.7% in September, while core inflation excluding food and energy reached 1.5%. The central bank lowered its year-end inflation forecast from 3.3% to 3.0%, reflecting a more moderate path for non-energy goods prices, and cut its core inflation projection from 2.8% to 2.2%. Inflation expectations remained anchored at 3.5%. Meanwhile, external risks persisted amid elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, alongside expectations of higher US interest rates through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. The central bank reaffirmed its commitment to price stability and its 3.5% inflation target.

Paraguay Central Bank Holds Policy Rate at 5.50%

The Dow Jones Index fell 653 points or 1.23 percent on Friday to close at 52215 points. Leading the losses are American Express (-3.69%), Coca-Cola (-2.73%) and P&G (-2.66%).

The Dow Jones Index Closes 1.23% Lower

Uruguay’s unemployment rate inched down to 7.1% in September 2026 from 7.2% in August. By region, unemployment was equal in Montevideo and the interior, at 7.1%. The gender gap persisted, with female unemployment at 8.6%, compared with 5.8% for men. Unemployment varied significantly by age, reaching 21.6% among young people aged 14 to 24, the group facing the greatest difficulties entering the labor market. Regarding employment quality, underemployment stood at 8.8%, while the share of workers not registered with social security reached 21%. Both indicators remained broadly stable month-over-month.

Uruguay Unemployment Rate Edged Lower in September

Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel on Friday, reaching an over 4-year high as expectations grew that the US could resume strikes against Iran in the coming weeks. US President Trump said Wednesday that Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and that something would happen “fairly soon.” Reports indicate that the US and Israel are planning fresh strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Iran’s army chief said the country’s military was fully prepared for “asymmetric warfare” after strengthening its capabilities. Iran-allied Houthi militants have continued attacks on Saudi Arabia, prompting the US State Department to order non-essential personnel to leave the country. Oil giant Saudi Aramco also instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely following a series of attacks. On the week, brent crude prices rose more than 6%.

Brent Hits Over 4-Year High

Crude oil rose above $103 a barrel on Friday as expectations grew that the US could resume strikes against Iran in the coming weeks. US President Trump said Wednesday that Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and that something would happen “fairly soon.” Reports indicate that the US and Israel are planning fresh strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Iran’s army chief said the country’s military was fully prepared for “asymmetric warfare” after strengthening its capabilities. Iran-allied Houthi militants have continued attacks on Saudi Arabia, prompting the US State Department to order non-essential personnel to leave the country. Oil giant Saudi Aramco also instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely following a series of attacks. On the week, crude prices rose more than 1.5%.

Oil Tops $103 on Fears of Renewed US-Iran Strikes

US stock indices closed lower on Friday as surging oil prices weighed on equities and bonds. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq closed flat and the Dow shed 653 points. Escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil higher, stoking inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Treasury yields rose after the market’s strongest session in over a year. Financial stocks dipped, with JPMorgan down 1.5%, Morgan Stanley falling 2.4% and BlackRock losing 1.7%. American Express dropped 3.7% despite beating earnings expectations and announcing plans to cut 5% of its global workforce. Among AI hyperscalers, Alphabet lost 1.2%, Meta shed 1% and Amazon retreated 0.9%. Concerns over rising debt to finance AI infrastructure pressured tech stocks this week. Most chipmakers recovered on Friday but still posted sharp weekly losses. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1%, the Nasdaq lost 2.1% and the Dow added 296 points.

US Stocks Drop as Oil Rally Fuels Inflation Fears

Croatia 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 4.14%, the highest since October 2023. Over the past 4 weeks, Croatia 10Y Bond Yield gained 18.89 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 107.60 basis points.

Croatia 10Y Bond Yield Hits 35-month High

The CAC 40 fell 0.4% to close at 7,783 on Friday ahead of Moody’s review of France’s sovereign credit rating. Moody’s rates France Aa3, its fourth-highest grade, with a negative outlook, and a downgrade is widely expected. The 10-year government bond yield surged to a 24-year high as concerns grew over fragile public finances, rising borrowing costs and mounting social unrest. The minority government faces difficulties passing its budget and reducing the deficit amid parliamentary divisions, widespread protests and uncertainty ahead of the presidential election. Meanwhile, heavyweight companies reported Q3 results this week. Hermès fell after reporting revenue below expectations, while Kering plunged 16.6% following a sales decline. Safran sank 10% despite strong results. In contrast, L’Oréal climbed 5.6% after third-quarter sales beat expectations. On the week, the CAC 40 gained 0.2%.

CAC 40 Falls Ahead of Moody’s France Rating Review

The FTSE MIB Index rose 175 points or 0.36 percent on Friday to close at 48559 points. Leading the gains are Eni (5.82%), Tenaris (4.45%) and Saipem (3.89%). Top losers were Stellantis N.V. (-6.62%), Moncler (-2.70%) and Brunello Cucinelli (-2.01%).

The FTSE MIB Index Closes 0.36% Higher

The DAX Index dropped 190 points or 0.75 percent on Friday to close at 25182 points. Losses were led by MTU Aero Engines AG (-4.84%), Deutsche Telekom (-3.17%) and Siemens Energy (-2.88%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Fresenius Medical Care (3.27%), Beiersdorf (2.41%) and Fresenius (1.75%).

The DAX Index Closes 0.75% Lower

The CAC 40 Index decreased 38 points or 0.49 percent on Friday to close at 7773 points. The decline was led by Kering (-15.97%), Safran (-10.35%) and Stellantis NV (-6.24%). On the upside, the strongest performers were L'Oréal (5.40%), TotalEnergies SE (4.69%) and Essilor (2.91%).

The CAC 40 Index Closes 0.49% Lower

The FTSE 100 Index fell 54 points or 0.51 percent on Friday to close at 10671 points. Leading the losses are Rolls-Royce (-7.28%), Fresnillo (-6.01%) and Diploma (-5.17%). Top gainers were BP (4.16%), Shell (3.68%) and Ithaca Energy (2.12%).

The FTSE 100 Index Closes 0.51% Lower

Italy's FTSE MIB closed 0.4% higher at 48,559 on Friday but held near a May low, as gains in energy offset losses in AI, auto and luxury. Energy shares rallied as global oil prices continued climbing, with Tenaris (4.5%) and Saipem (4.2%) advancing. Eni surged 5.8% after beating earnings estimates and announcing plans to expand its buyback this year, buoyed by soaring refining margins. A late-session rally in financials lifted Milan further, with Banco BPM (1.1%) and MPS (0.8%) leading gains, although Banca Mediolanum and Unipol each fell 1.1%. Weaker Chinese demand weighed on autos and luxury, reflected in a third-quarter loss at Volvo and declining sales at Gucci. Moncler tumbled 3.2%, Brunello Cucinelli fell 2%, and Ferrari dropped 1.3%. Stellantis plunged 6.3% after announcing a collaboration with Nvidia and Wayve to explore AI-driven driving. AI-related shares remained under pressure, led by Technoprobe (-3.6%). Despite the upside, the benchmark dropped around 2.5% over the week.

Italian Stocks Edge Higher

Frankfurt's DAX 40 fell about 0.8% to close at 25,152 on Friday, its lowest level since October 9 and extending previous session's losses. The continued rise in oil prices amid geopolitical tensions has heightened fears of inflationary pressures, while renewed uncertainty surrounding AI and the instability in France further weighed on investor sentiment. On the data front, flash PMI figures showed that Germany’s private sector continued to expand in October, although growth slowed more than expected. Most sectors recorded declines, particularly telecom, tech, industrials and autos. MTU Aero Engines was the worst performer, slipping nearly 5%, trailing the mixed results of its competitor Safran. Deutsche Telekom followed closely, down 3.2%, on renewed concerns about US competition from SpaceX. Siemens Energy, Infineon Technologies, RWE and Merck also declined sharply, each falling more than 2%. For the week, the index lost around 1.8%.

DAX Finishes Lower, Posts Weekly Loss

US natural gas prices fell more than 5% on Friday to nearly $2.65 per MMBtu, approaching their lowest level since late April, as forecasts for milder weather weighed on expectations for heating demand. Above-average temperatures are expected across the Midwest and East through November 5, according to Commodity Weather Group, likely curbing gas consumption. The price decline came despite a smaller-than-usual storage build, strong LNG feedgas demand, and lower production. EIA data showed that US natural gas inventories rose by 77 Bcf in the week ended October 16, below both the 86 Bcf added during the same week last year and the five-year average increase of 87 Bcf. Meanwhile, average feedgas flows to the nine major US LNG export terminals climbed to 18.2 Bcf/d in October, up from 17.9 Bcf/d in September. On the supply side, production across the Lower 48 states averaged 111.4 Bcf/d this month, down from record highs of 113.3 Bcf/d in August and September.

NatGas Prices Fall to Almost 6-Month Low

Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher, rising above 13% in October amid election uncertainty ahead of the presidential runoff. A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula tied at 50% each of valid votes. Earlier polls indicated a statistical tie, with Bolsonaro’s lead narrowing compared with previous surveys. Some market participants believe a Flávio Bolsonaro administration would be more likely to rein in public spending, although neither the candidate nor his economic advisers have outlined concrete fiscal adjustments. Beyond the election, uncertainty surrounding the external environment and rising commodity prices also weighed on the market. Oil prices and US Treasury yields moved higher, adding to upward pressure on Brazilian yields. Meanwhile, Brazil’s mid-month inflation rate reached 4.62% in October, below market expectations of 4.74%.

Brazil’s 10-Year Yield Edges Higher Ahead of Election Runoff

The FTSE 100 fell around 0.5% on Friday, extending its weekly losses to nearly 2%. Rolls-Royce tumbled 7.5% as the company reportedly approached a deal for up to £200 million in UK government subsidies to develop a new short-haul aircraft engine. Precious metals miners also weakened, with Fresnillo falling 6% and Endeavour dropping more than 3%, as gold prices slipped below $4,000 an ounce to their lowest level since mid-July. AstraZeneca lost 1.5%, GSK declined around 1%, while Unilever and BAT fell more than 0.5% and 1%, respectively. Banking stocks extended recent losses amid concerns over potential tax increases in next week’s budget. In contrast, Shell rose more than 3.5% and BP gained over 4% as Brent crude reached new highs amid escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia and mounting supply concerns linked to the US-Iran war.

FTSE 100 Drops 2% This Week

The Canadian dollar strengthened to around 1.40 per US dollar in October, reaching a more than one-month high as the outlook for BoC policy tilted toward tighter conditions. Expectations of a narrowing US-Canada interest rate differential have supported the loonie, amid a more hawkish outlook for the BoC’s next policy decision, scheduled for October 28th, relative to the US Fed. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem recently said the central bank expects to raise its quarterly inflation forecast significantly this month, following hawkish remarks last week about energy-driven price pressures. The oil rally has added to upward pressure on energy costs amid an escalation in the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Canadian retail sales are expected to have increased 0.7% month-over-month in September, extending a 1.2% rise in August, adding to the inflation outlook.

Canadian Dollar Hits Over One-Month High

The Brazilian real edged lower to around 5.045 per US dollar ahead of the presidential runoff, amid uncertainty surrounding the election. A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula tied at 50% each of valid votes. Earlier polls also indicated a statistical tie, with Bolsonaro’s lead narrowing compared with previous surveys. Some market participants believe a Flávio Bolsonaro administration would be more likely to rein in public spending, although neither the candidate nor his economic advisers have outlined concrete fiscal adjustments. Meanwhile, Brazil’s mid-month inflation rate reached 4.62% in October, below market expectations of 4.74%.

Brazilian Real Edges Lower Ahead of Presidential Runoff

European stocks extended losses on Friday, with the Stoxx 50 falling around 0.5% to a more than four-month low and recording a weekly decline of over 2%. The broader Stoxx 600 also dropped 0.5% to a two-week low, ending the week down more than 1.5%. Germany, the UK and France led Friday’s declines, while Spain and Italy posted modest gains. Industrial goods and services, automobiles and parts, telecommunications, and consumer goods fell more than 1%, while banking, technology, travel and leisure, and media stocks also weakened. Energy stocks outperformed, gaining nearly 3% as Brent crude reached new highs amid escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia. Corporate earnings drove significant individual moves. Kering plunged more than 15% as Gucci sales declined, while Volvo Cars dropped nearly 25% following a sharp fall in Chinese sales. Safran lost 10% despite higher sales, whereas L’Oréal climbed over 5% on stronger-than-expected third-quarter results.

European Stocks End Week Lower

Next week, investors will closely monitor developments in the Middle East for any further disruptions to oil supplies. The earnings calendar will also be busy, with major technology companies, including hyperscalers Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, set to report results. Monetary policy will be another key focus, with interest rate decisions due from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Thailand and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. On the economic front, preliminary GDP figures for the US and the Eurozone will be released, alongside US PCE inflation data and preliminary inflation figures for major European economies, including Germany. Investors will also assess Tokyo inflation and Australia's CPI data. Political developments will remain in the spotlight, including the UK's Autumn Budget, China's Communist Party's fifth plenum, and elections in Brazil and Israel.

Week Ahead - Oct 26th

Gold prices fell below $4,000 an ounce on Friday, hitting their lowest level since mid-July and putting the precious metal down almost 4% for the week, as rising oil prices strengthened expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer. Brent crude surged to a four-year high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over further energy supply disruptions. Meanwhile, recent US data showed consumer and producer inflation rising more than expected, largely driven by higher energy costs, reinforcing concerns over persistent inflationary pressures. Despite this, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their October 27–28 meeting. Markets currently price in just a 10% chance of a rate hike next week, compared with odds of around 80% for December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors now await US PCE inflation data due October 29 for further clues on progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Gold Slides Below $4,000

Year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, were confirmed at 4.7% in October 2026, the highest level since May, up from 4.6% in September. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook increased for the second month to 3.5% in October, its highest since May, up from September's 3.4%, matching the preliminary reading.

US Year-Ahead Inflation Outlook Unrevised at 5-Month High

Gold decreased below 4000, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD).

Gold traded below 4000 USD/t.oz

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was revised higher to 48.0 in late October 2026, up from a preliminary estimate of 46.3, but remained at its lowest level in five months. Gains in sentiment among Republicans and Democrats were offset by declines among independents. Year-ahead business conditions improved by around 14%, although the index remained 16% below its level in October 2025. Meanwhile, the decline in the Current Conditions subindex was driven entirely by buying conditions for durable goods, which plunged 18% amid higher interest rates and growing concerns about affordability. Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy, with sentiment now 10% below its year-ago level and 15% below February, just before the Iran conflict. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September, while long-run inflation expectations also increased, rising to 3.5% from 3.4%.

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Higher but Remains Weak

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell more than 0.5% to hover near 35,500 on Friday as the oil rally continued to fuel inflation concerns, while technology stocks remained under pressure. Crude oil prices climbed amid escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and reports of possible renewed US strikes against Iran. Canadian bond yields moved higher, with markets pricing in a Bank of Canada rate hike at its next meeting amid energy-driven inflationary pressures. Major Canadian banks posted losses, with RBC, TD Bank, BMO, Scotiabank and CIBC each down about 1%. Meanwhile, technology stocks remained under pressure as the rotation away from AI-related shares continued. Celestica extended its losses, falling more than 3.5% after plunging 12% in the previous session, while Shopify shed nearly 1%. Celestica is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Monday. Elsewhere, gold prices fluctuated and silver fell, weighing on mining stocks.

TSX Falls as Oil Rally Fuels BoC Rate Hike Bets

The S&P Global US Services PMI eased to 57.9 in October 2026 from 58.8 in September and marginally below market expectations of 58, according to the flash estimate. The latest reading marked the seventh successive month of growth in business activity, with the pace of expansion remaining among the strongest recorded since 2011, despite a slight moderation from the previous month. New business growth accelerated to its strongest pace since March 2022, reflecting rising domestic demand. Also services exports rose the most since July 2023.

US Services Activity Growth Remains Robust

The Ibovespa fluctuated around the 204,000 mark on Friday in the final session before Brazil’s presidential runoff. A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula tied at 50% each of valid votes. Earlier polls also indicated a statistical tie, with Bolsonaro’s lead narrowing compared with previous surveys. Some market participants believe a Flávio Bolsonaro administration would be more likely to rein in public spending, although neither the candidate nor his economic advisers have outlined concrete fiscal adjustments. Financial stocks mostly traded lower, with Itaú edging down and Banco do Brasil and Itaúsa losing more than 0.5%. Bradesco fell nearly 2.5% despite reporting third-quarter earnings in line with market expectations and announcing a share buyback program. In contrast, Petrobras rose nearly 2% as oil prices climbed following fresh attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen against Saudi Arabia. Vale gained nearly 1% as iron ore prices rebounded.

Ibovespa Fluctuates Ahead of Presidential Runoff

The US Composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October 2026 from 58.4 in September, a two-month low, but remained firmly in expansion territory and signalled the second-strongest increase in business activity since March 2022. Growth in new orders strengthened to its highest level in more than four-and-a-half years, while export sales recorded their largest gain since May 2022. Employment also remained strong, rising at its fastest pace since June 2022 as companies increased staffing to meet demand and address growing backlogs. However, mounting cost pressures drove selling-price inflation to its highest level since August 2022. Input costs rose at their fastest pace since November 2022, excluding September’s increase. Meanwhile, business confidence for the year ahead weakened slightly but remained the second-highest reading recorded this year.

US Business Activity Growth Holds Close to 5-Year High

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI edged up to 56 in October 2026 from 55.9 in September, beating forecasts of 55.5, preliminary estimates showed. The reading pointed to the strongest improvement in operating conditions in manufacturing since May 2022. Although production and new orders growth rates slowed, both remained elevated to register sustained strong expansions. Jobs growth meanwhile accelerated further to reach the highest since March 2012, and input inventories rose at the fastest rate for four months. Suppliers’ delivery times meanwhile lengthened to the greatest degree since July 2022.

US Manufacturing Conditions Strongest Since 2022

Commodity Index increased to 759.25 Index Points, the highest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Commodity Index gained 0.47%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 34.57%.

Commodity Index Hits 5-week High

Crude oil rose above $102 a barrel on Friday, the highest in five weeks, as expectations grew that the US could resume strikes against Iran in the coming weeks. Prices have gained around 3% this week, marking a third consecutive weekly advance. Iran’s army chief said the country’s military was prepared for asymmetric warfare after strengthening its capabilities. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and suggested that developments could occur soon. US and Israeli officials have reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes after the US midterm elections. Regional tensions have also intensified as Iran-aligned Houthi militants continue attacks on Saudi Arabia. The US State Department ordered non-essential personnel to leave the country. Saudi Aramco has also reportedly instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely.

Crude Oil Rises to 5-Week High

Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel on Friday, reaching its highest level since June 2022 and surpassing the peak recorded at the start of the war, as expectations grew that the US could resume strikes against Iran in the coming weeks. Prices have gained around 5% this week, marking a third consecutive weekly advance. Iran’s army chief said the country’s military was prepared for asymmetric warfare after strengthening its capabilities. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and suggested that developments could occur soon. US and Israeli officials have reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes after the US midterm elections. Regional tensions have also intensified as Iran-aligned Houthi militants continue attacks on Saudi Arabia. The US State Department ordered non-essential personnel to leave the country. Saudi Aramco has also reportedly instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely.

Brent Hits Highest Level Since 2022 as War Risks Escalate

The Dow Jones Index is dropping 604 points. Leading the losses are Caterpillar (-2.67%), Boeing (-2.65%) and American Express (-2.42%).

The Dow Jones Index Opens 1.14% Lower

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, snapped its four-day winning streak on Friday, falling by 1.2% to 2,660 points. The panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, dropped roughly 2% to a fresh low since August 24 at 2,109 points.  Meanwhile, the capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, including iron ore and coal, also halted its four-day winning run, decreasing by 1.5% to 3,791 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index went down by 0.2% to 1,887 points. For the week, the benchmark index advanced about 5.9%, notching its second consecutive weekly gain, mainly supported by the bigger-size segment.

Baltic Dry Index Snaps 4-Day Winning Run

US stocks fell on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, the Nasdaq losing 0.2% and the Dow Jones dropping 580 points, extending the previous session’s sharp sell-off. Safe-haven sentiment continued to prevail amid elevated oil prices and mounting concerns over a potential escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. Industrials, communication services and consumer discretionary stocks led the declines. Microsoft slipped 0.5% and Meta fell 1.9%, while American Express dropped 1.7% despite reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the rotation away from AI-related stocks continued, albeit at a slower pace, as chipmakers attempted to rebound and the technology sector traded around the flatline. For the week, the S&P 500 was little changed, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5%. By contrast, the Dow Jones was on track for a weekly gain of around 1.7%.

US Stocks Lower

US500 decreased to 7616.00 Index Points, the lowest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, United States Stock Market Index (US500) lost 1.1%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 12.19%.

The United States Stock Market Index (US500) Hit 5-week Low

Brent increased to 115.44 USD/Bbl, the highest since June 2022. Over the past 4 weeks, Brent Oil gained 8.24%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 76.97%.

Brent Hits 4-year High

Belgium’s business confidence indicator rose by 2.3 points to -9.8 in October 2026, the highest reading since January, compared to -12.1 in September and above market expectations of -11.8. Manufacturing sentiment became less pessimistic (-9.2 vs. -12.2), reflecting less negative assessments of total order books (-18.6 vs. -20.2) and employment expectations (-6.8 vs. -7.4), alongside a decline in stock levels (0.5 vs. 10.4). The confidence index also strengthened in the building industry (-8.3 vs -11.8), led by the trend in orders (0.5 vs -6.9) and the assessment of order books (-20.4 vs -24.5), as well as in business-related services (-12.6 vs -13.4), driven by activity expectations (-4.1 vs -7.4). In contrast, pessimism deepened in the trade sector (-13.2 vs -8.6), with employment expectations falling sharply (-13.0 vs -1.4).

Belgium Business Pessimism Eases to Lowest Since January

Silver prices tumbled below $54 an ounce on Friday, reaching their lowest level since November 2025 as rising oil prices strengthened expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer. Brent crude climbed to a more than five-month high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over further energy supply disruptions. Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data last week, largely driven by rising energy costs, reinforced the case for tighter monetary policy. However, the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting. Markets currently price in just a 9% chance of a rate hike next week, compared with more than 80% for December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors are also awaiting US PCE inflation data on October 29 for further clues on progress towards the Fed’s 2% target.

Silver Falls to 2025 Lows

Gold prices stabilized around $4,030 an ounce on Friday, hovering near three-month lows and leaving the precious metal down around 3% for the week, as rising oil prices have fueled expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer. Brent crude climbed to a more than five-month high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies. Meanwhile, US consumer and producer inflation data released last week came in hotter than expected, largely reflecting rising energy costs and reinforcing the case for tighter monetary policy. However, Fed officials are still widely expected to leave rates unchanged at their October 27–28 meeting. Markets currently assign just a 9% probability to a rate hike next week, compared with more than 80% for December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors also await US PCE inflation data on October 29 for further clues on progress towards the Fed’s 2% target.

Gold Stabilizes Near Three-Month Low

The dollar index was little changed at around 101.6 on Friday, hovering near three-week lows and down nearly 0.2% on the week. Cautious sentiment persisted amid further gains in oil prices and concerns over a potential escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, while the US midterm elections are now less than two weeks away. Meanwhile, concerns over heavy AI-related spending continued to weigh on sentiment. The Fed is set to announce its monetary policy decision next week, with markets pricing in a roughly 91% probability of rates remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25bps rate hike in December stood at around 76%. Among major currencies, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal. The euro, by contrast, edged lower as political uncertainty in France and continued selling pressure in the country's bond market weighed on the common currency.

Dollar Index Little Changed

Canada’s manufacturing sales advance estimate indicates that total manufacturing sales edged up 0.1% month-over-month in September 2026, after rising 1.5% in August. The largest increases were recorded in the petroleum and coal product subsector and the aerospace product and parts industry group.

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