US crude oil inventories rose by 9.07 million barrels in the week ending August 7th, far exceeding expectations for a 500,000-barrel draw and following a 2.69 million-barrel increase in the previous week. The larger-than-expected build was driven partly by higher crude imports relative to exports. Despite the latest increase, commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR have declined by just over 49 million barrels over the past 17 weeks, while inventories are up 1.88 million barrels year-to-date. Another 6.1 million barrels left the SPR, bringing total reserves to 298.7 million barrels, near the generally accepted operational minimum of 250-300 million barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 1.57 million barrels after rising 2.36 million barrels in the previous week. Meanwhile, US crude production rose to 13.804 million bpd from 13.796 million bpd, up 600,000 bpd from a year earlier.

US Crude Inventories Beat Expectations

The Mexican Peso touched 17.08 against the USD, the highest since June 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Mexican Peso lost 2.54%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 8.08%.

Mexican Peso Hits 26-month High

The Ibovespa tumbled 2.5% to close at 167,875 on Tuesday, its lowest close since January 20th and the sharpest decline since March 12th. JPMorgan downgraded Brazilian equities to neutral within Latin America, citing weaker growth, deteriorating credit conditions, higher-for-longer interest rates, and increased volatility ahead of the presidential election. The bank also cut its year-end Ibovespa target. In its minutes, Copom said inflation remains pressured by demand and requires a restrictive monetary policy stance. July's inflation reading also added to concerns, coming in slightly above forecasts. Political risk also rose after a new election poll showed President Lula widening his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, as investors remain focused on the potential fiscal direction of the next government. Banks fell sharply, with Banco do Brasil down 3.7%, Bradesco losing 2.3%, and Itaú shedding 3.5%. Petrobras fell 1.3% despite higher oil prices, while Vale declined 2%.

Ibovespa Hits Seven-Month Low

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged higher to close at 36,476 on Tuesday, reaching a fresh record slightly above the previous session's high, supported by energy stocks. The energy sector advanced as crude oil prices pared earlier losses after Iran reiterated that it would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until its demands are met. Canadian Natural gained 0.7%, Suncor rose 0.9%, Imperial Oil added 0.5%, and Cenovus advanced 0.9%. Financials were mixed, with Brookfield Asset Management jumping 4.6% on strong fee revenue growth and a major fundraising effort, while major banks mostly declined. Investors now await Wednesday's US CPI report for fresh clues on the Fed's policy outlook, while strong Canadian labor data from last week kept expectations for a hawkish BoC in focus. Among miners, Franco-Nevada fell 0.2% ahead of its earnings report, while investors continued to digest Barrick's (-2.1%) results. In tech, Shopify shed 1.8% and Constellation Software lost 2.5% ahead of its earnings.

TSX Reaches Fresh Record

The Dow Jones Index dropped 224 points or 0.41 percent on Tuesday to close at 53752 points. Losses were led by Honeywell International (-4.45%), Alphabet (-4.10%) and Amazon (-2.11%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were IBM (0.99%), Caterpillar (0.90%) and Chevron (0.87%).

The Dow Jones Index Closes 0.41% Lower

US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as markets assessed energy prices and the prospects of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, the Nasdaq fell 0.3%, and the Dow shed 184 points. Crude oil prices were volatile amid conflicting signals over developments in the Middle East, paring earlier losses after Iran reiterated that it would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until its demands are met. Treasury yields eased, but credit-sensitive hyperscalers declined, with Alphabet down 3.8%, Oracle losing 3.7%, Amazon shedding 2.1%, and SpaceX falling 3.9%. Intel (+0.2%) rose its planned stock offering by $5 billion to $20 billion. Nvidia (-0%) reportedly secured $500 billion in private financing from banks for AI infrastructure, increasing leverage across the sector. Investors now await Wednesday's CPI report after several FOMC members signaled a possible rate hike next month. SMCI (+0.4%) and CoreWeave (+2.4%) are scheduled to report after the bell.

US Stocks Slip as Oil Rebounds

Uruguay's industrial production rose 5.4% year-on-year in June 2026 after falling 3.5% in the previous month, marking a strong rebound in manufacturing activity. The increase was driven primarily by a 7.8% rise in food products manufacturing, which contributed 3.2 percentage points to overall growth. Other food products manufacturing increased 6.3%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial output climbed 8.0% month-on-month. Meanwhile, hours worked in the industrial sector rose 0.3% from a year earlier, while industrial employment declined 3.0%. On a year-to-date basis, industrial production increased 2.9%, while hours worked and employment fell 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively.

Uruguay Industrial Output Rebounds in June

Brent prices remained volatile on Tuesday, swinging between gains and losses to trade above $88 a barrel as traders weighed conflicting signals over developments in the Middle East. Prices initially came under pressure after Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said recent developments suggested the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement,” with conditions appearing to move in favor of peace. Reports that talks between Iran and Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to some maritime shipping had reached an advanced stage also fueled optimism. However, the gains were tempered by uncertainty over whether the strategic waterway will actually reopen. A senior Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Tehran’s conditions are met by Washington. On Monday, US President Trump adopted a tougher stance toward Tehran, demanding reparations from Iran for deaths linked to attacks and domestic unrest.

Brent Back Above $88

Crude oil prices remained volatile on Tuesday, swinging between gains and losses to trade above $83 a barrel as traders weighed conflicting signals over developments in the Middle East. Prices initially came under pressure after Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said recent developments suggested the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement,” with conditions appearing to move in favor of peace. Reports that talks between Iran and Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to some maritime shipping had reached an advanced stage also fueled optimism. However, the gains were tempered by uncertainty over whether the strategic waterway will actually reopen. A senior Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Tehran’s conditions are met by Washington. On Monday, US President Trump adopted a tougher stance toward Tehran, demanding reparations from Iran for deaths linked to attacks and domestic unrest.

Oil Prices Swing

The DAX rose 0.3% to a record of 26,385 on Tuesday as gains for utilities offset losses elsewhere. Siemens Energy led the advance, rising 3.2% after reports that the company booked the most gas-turbine orders in the second quarter. The company continued to trade in tandem with AI infrastructure companies amid the development of power-hungry data centers. Likewise, data center projects were due to boost RWE (1.7%) and E.ON (0.9%) ahead of their earnings this week. Auto stocks also outperformed following data showing US auto loans at record levels. BMW rose 1.2% and Volkswagen gained 0.1%, while Daimler Truck Holdings fell 1.9% as rising Middle East tensions pushed fuel prices higher and concerns over the shift toward electric vehicles weighed on sentiment. Adidas dropped 3% after On Holding missed estimates for second-quarter net sales, highlighting a tougher macroeconomic environment. Zalando fell 2.6%.

DAX Climbs to Fresh Record

The FTSE MIB closed largely unchanged at 53,706 on Tuesday, as gains in energy and defense stocks offset losses in autos and utilities. Eni advanced 2% amid uncertainty surrounding conflicting statements over a potential Middle East peace agreement, while Saipem added 0.4%. Defense stocks also outperformed, led by Leonardo, which gained 0.7% after RBC analysts rated the stock “outperform”. Fincantieri rose 0.2%. Financials were mixed despite Morningstar DBRS reporting another solid set of first-half results from Italy’s largest banks. UniCredit (0.3%), BPER Banca (0.2%) and BMPS (0.2%) all advanced, while Banco BPM fell 0.9% and Intesa Sanpaolo lost 0.3%. On the downside, Stellantis fell 2.6% as intensifying competition from Chinese automakers weighed on sentiment, while the company’s backing of Leapmotor underscored the growing competitive pressure in overseas markets. Utilities extended losses from the previous session, led by Enel, which fell 0.9%.

FTSE MIB Closes Flat

The FTSE MIB Index gained 42 points or 0.08 percent on Tuesday to close at 53706 points. Gains were led by Eni (2.01%), Prysmian (1.77%) and Azimut Holding (1.60%). Biggest losers were Stellantis N.V. (-2.13%), Enel (-0.91%) and Banco BPM SPA (-0.88%).

The FTSE MIB Index Closes 0.08% Higher

The DAX Index went up by 68 points or 0.26 percent on Tuesday to close at 26391 points. The rise was led by Siemens Energy (2.56%), Deutsche Telekom (1.64%) and RWE (1.52%). On the downside, the weakerst performers were Qiagen NV (-3.38%), Adidas (-3.08%) and Zalando (-2.82%).

The DAX Index Closes 0.26% Higher

European stocks inched higher to new records on Tuesday as gains for technology and energy stocks offset a muted session elsewhere. The Euro STOXX 50 closed 0.5% higher at a record of 6,553 and the STOXX Europe 600 inched higher to a record of 660.8. ASML jumped 2.7%, supported by a recommendation upgrade by Bernstein. Other companies with exposure to AI infrastructure also rose, with Siemens Energy gaining close to 3%. In turn, energy stocks rose after US President Trump hardened his rhetoric against Iran, prolonging expectations of suspended exports through the Persian Gulf despite optimistic signals of a deal from Pakistan and Qatar. TotalEnergies and ENI advanced nearly 2%.

European Stocks Extend Records

The CAC 40 Index fell 11 points or 0.13 percent on Tuesday to close at 8715 points. Leading the losses are STMicroelectronics (-3.21%), Stellantis NV (-2.25%) and Bouygues (-1.72%). Top gainers were TP (2.95%), TotalEnergies SE (1.41%) and Capgemini (1.39%).

The CAC 40 Index Closes 0.13% Lower

The FTSE 100 Index dropped 14 points or 0.13 percent on Tuesday to close at 10848 points. Losses were led by Spirax-Sarco Engineering (-6.47%), M&G (-3.31%) and Legal & General (-3.12%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were St. Jamess (2.94%), Endeavour (2.70%) and Entain (2.25%).

The FTSE 100 Index Closes 0.13% Lower

The CAC 40 edged 0.1% lower to close at 8,715 on Tuesday, retreating from the record high reached in the previous session amid renewed geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump called on Iran to compensate victims of conflicts involving Tehran, following Iranian demands for reparations over damage caused by recent US and Israeli strikes. The escalating rhetoric reduced expectations of a near-term breakthrough and dimmed hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, fueling concerns over continued energy supply disruptions and energy-driven inflation. Luxury stocks declined amid increased risk aversion, with LVMH down 0.8% and L’Oréal losing 1.2%. Industrial shares also fell, with Airbus shedding 1% and Safran down 0.5%, while financials weakened, led by a 1% decline in BNP Paribas. In contrast, TotalEnergies advanced 1.4% on higher oil prices.

CAC 40 Retreats From Record High

US stock indices held below the flatline on Tuesday as markets gauged energy prices and risks of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 were slightly lower. Pakistani and Qatari authorities signaled some optimism on a US-Iran deal that could restore oil trade through the Persian Gulf. The move cut the rebound in wholesale fuel prices, initially prompted by President Trump hardening his rhetoric on Tehran. Yields softened but credit-sensitive hyperscalers booked losses, with Oracle, Amazon, and SpaceX down more than 2%. Intel extended its 4% slide yesterday with a 1.5% drop as it raised its expected stock sale by $5 billion to $20 billion. Still, Nvidia rose 1% after raising $500 billion with banks privately for the buildout of more AI infrastructure, raising the leverage in the sector. The US will release its CPI tomorrow inflation after multiple FOMC members signaled a possible hike next month. SCMI and CoreWeave will report results after the bell.

US Stocks Trade Lower

The FTSE 100 was little changed on Tuesday, underperforming other European markets as weakness in defensive stocks offset gains among energy companies. AstraZeneca fell around 1%, GSK dropped more than 1.5% and Unilever declined about 0.6%, while Shell and BP advanced 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. Renewed hopes for a potential Middle East agreement eased some concerns over oil supplies and trimmed the recent rally in crude prices. Pakistan signaled that the US and Iran could be close to an arrangement aimed at reducing tensions and potentially supporting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, InterContinental Hotels Group fell more than 2% despite reporting first-half profit above expectations. Bellway also warned of an uncertain near-term outlook despite exceeding forecasts for home completions and housing revenue. Meanwhile, UK retail sales rose 1.3% year-on-year in July, while Barclays reported consumer spending growth of 2%, its strongest this year.

FTSE 100 Lags Europe on Tuesday

Zambia 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to 16.81%, the lowest since May 2017. Over the past 4 weeks, Zambia Government Bond 10y lost 2.00 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 271.80 basis points.

Zambia 10Y Bond Yield Hits 9-year Low

The Central Bank of Kenya left its benchmark interest rate at 8.75% on August 11th, 2026, a third straight hold, as policymakers stated that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate to ensure price and exchange rate stability. Headline inflation rose to 6.5%, driven by higher fuel costs that pushed up transportation and food prices, but remained within the bank’s 5% ±2.5% target range. Meanwhile, economic growth accelerated to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026, from 4% in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain within the target range in the near term, assuming a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, risks remain elevated as the stop-start US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt global energy and fertilizer markets.

Kenya Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged for 3rd Meeting

Total household debt in the US decreased by $13 billion from the prior quarter to $18.794 trillion in Q2 2026. Mortgage balances declined by $74 billion to $13.1 trillion at the end of June, and student loan balances decreased by $7 billion to $1.65 trillion. Meanwhile, home equity lines of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $13 billion to $459 billion, credit card balances rose by $21 billion to $1.26 trillion, and auto loan balances increased by $28 billion to $1.71 trillion. “Delinquency rates across most products have held steady over the past two years,” said Joelle Scally, Economic Policy Advisor at the New York Fed. “Still, new delinquencies for auto loans and credit cards remain at elevated levels, a trend we’ll continue to monitor.”

US Household Debt Falls in Q2

Corn decreased to 434.00 USd/BU, the lowest since July 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Corn lost 1.48%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 16.95%.

Corn Hits 4-week Low

Cotton futures traded near 84 cents per pound, after reaching a three-month high of 84.5 cents, as adverse weather in key producing regions fueled supply concerns. The USDA’s latest crop progress report showed 42% of the US cotton crop was rated good to excellent, down from 46% a week earlier and 55% a year ago. Cotton is entering a critical stage of the growing season, while triple-digit temperatures and limited rainfall threaten both dryland and irrigated fields. In India, below-average monsoon rainfall is expected to persist through August, raising concerns over yields. Meanwhile, Brazil’s cotton production is projected to decline as El Niño-related dryness intensifies through September. Adding to supply concerns, China barred domestic entities from doing business with six US cotton-linked firms following Washington’s addition of 43 Chinese companies to its forced-labor import restriction list. Still, the rally has left cotton vulnerable to profit-taking as traders lock in gains.

Cotton Trades Near Three-Month High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.68% on Tuesday, after rising above 4.71% the previous day, as oil prices steadied amid signs that diplomatic efforts are underway to reach a deal between the US and Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan signaled the possibility of an agreement that could help ease tensions roiling energy markets, although the situation remains highly fragile and uncertain. Meanwhile, the highly anticipated US CPI report is due on Wednesday and should provide further insight into the path of inflation. The report is expected to continue pointing to a slowdown in energy-related price pressures that intensified in the months immediately following the start of the US war with Iran. Markets are pricing in roughly even odds of a Fed rate hike next month, with about a 50% probability of rates being left unchanged.

Treasury Yields Edge Down

Wheat prices fluctuated around $6.40 per bushel, remaining more than 10% below the two-year high of $7.08 on July 22, as weaker Russian prices, subdued international demand and alternative export routes eased concerns over Black Sea disruptions. Hopes for progress in negotiations to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also improved broader market sentiment, after Pakistan said the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” to reduce tensions. However, risks to grain exports remain as Ukraine and Russia continue to target each other’s shipping routes. Ukraine has lowered its 2026/27 grain export forecast by up to 12% from its previous estimate, while Russia’s wheat export outlook has also been reduced. Consultancy IKAR cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.5 million tonnes, while Sovecon expects August shipments to reach their lowest level in a decade. Traders now await the US government’s latest crop forecasts on Wednesday.

Wheat Market Weighs Supply Risks and Weak Demand

The Baltic dry index fell 1.2% to 3,046 on Tuesday, extending a 0.2% decrease on Monday. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, dropped 2% to 5,001. Also, the supramax index went down 0.2% to 1,600, the lowest in nine weeks. On the other hand, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, increased 0.3% to 2,312, its highest level since June 2.

Baltic Dry Index Falls for 2nd Session

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose to a record above 36,500, with support from heavyweight banks. Oil prices trimmed earlier losses after a spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry said negotiations between Oman and Iran were at an advanced stage, offering some hope of progress toward an agreement. Financials traded higher, with TD Bank, BMO, CIBC and Scotiabank up about 1% each, while Brookfield gained more than 2%. Markets are now turning to Wednesday’s US consumer price index for July, which is expected to provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, expectations of a hawkish Bank of Canada remained after strong domestic labor data released last week. Among miners, Franco-Nevada (+0.2%) was in focus ahead of its earnings report after the bell, while investors continued to digest Barrick’s (-1%) results from Tuesday. In tech, Shopify shed more than 1%, while Constellation Software edged lower ahead of its earnings report.

Canadian Stocks Set Fresh Record

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell to around 3.15%, remaining below the 15-year high hit above 3.2% in July, as renewed hopes for a Middle East agreement eased inflation concerns and pushed oil prices lower. Pakistan signaled optimism that the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz, potentially reducing tensions and supporting the restoration of energy flows. The positive assessment followed tougher rhetoric from President Trump, who said Tehran should pay reparations for deaths linked to attacks and domestic protests, in response to demands made by Iran over the weekend. Investors are now assessing whether diplomatic progress can lead to a broader agreement and sustained easing in energy prices. Lower oil costs could reduce inflationary pressure and provide greater flexibility for monetary policy. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged in July after delivering a 25-basis-point increase in June, its first rate hike in three years.

Germany 10-Year Bund Yield Pulls Back

US gasoline futures fell below $3.1 per gallon on Tuesday, after approaching a one-week high of $3.18 earlier in the session, as hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement raised expectations of the key waterway reopening. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated a deal was close and that lasting peace would serve the region’s interests. Meanwhile, Iran said talks with Oman on alternative shipping routes were at an advanced stage, according to a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson cited by Al Jazeera. Still, US President Donald Trump adopted a tougher stance, warning that Tehran would have to pay for damage caused by past attacks. Elsewhere, escalating Russia-Ukraine attacks raised concerns over further disruptions to energy infrastructure after Ukraine launched a long-range drone strike on a major Russian refinery. Russia’s overseas crude shipments fell to their lowest since May, while Moscow extended its ban on gasoline and diesel exports through January 2027.

Gasoline Futures Reverse Course

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to around 4.95% as renewed hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, easing concerns over inflation. Crude declined after Pakistan signaled that the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” aimed at reducing tensions and restoring shipping through the strategic waterway. The comments offered a more positive assessment after President Donald Trump had toughened his stance toward Tehran, demanding reparations for deaths linked to Iran and domestic protests. Meanwhile, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged in July, with Governor Andrew Bailey saying the disinflation process remained on track despite external risks. Recent BRC data showed UK retail sales increased 1.3% year-on-year in July, below the 12-month average, suggesting subdued consumer activity, while Barclays data showed household spending rose 2%, its strongest growth of the year.

UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Falls Below 5%

Existing home sales in the United States fell by 1.7% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.06 units in July of 2026, relatively close to market expectations of 4.06 million. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and there’s no doubt that the housing market would be thriving if average mortgage rates were to return near 6%.”

US Existing Home Sales Fall as Expected

The Ibovespa edged down to trade below 172,000 on Tuesday following the release of July’s inflation data and the minutes from Copom’s latest meeting. Brazil’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.44% in July 2026 from 4.64% in June, in line with forecasts and returning to within the central bank’s 1.5%-4.5% target range. In the minutes, the monetary authority said that although monetary policy is making a decisive contribution to the disinflation process, inflation remains pressured by demand, requiring a restrictive policy stance. Financials traded mostly lower, with Caixa extending losses by nearly 3% after reporting a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter decline in adjusted net income and a 0.8% year-on-year drop in financial income. BTG fell more than 2% despite reporting its strongest semester on record. B3, down 0.3%, is set to release its results later today. Petrobras shed nearly 0.5% as the oil rally lost momentum. Vale gained more than 0.5% as iron ore prices rose on signs of tighter supply.

Ibovespa Slips After Copom Minutes

US natural gas prices fluctuated around $2.80 per million British thermal units as investors weighed hotter weather forecasts and rising LNG demand against strong supply levels. Forecasts now point to significantly hotter conditions across the central and southern US, which could boost electricity demand as consumers increase air-conditioning use and raise gas consumption by power generators. Also, flows to US LNG export terminals on the Gulf Coast climbed to their highest level in more than a month as some facilities appeared to complete seasonal maintenance, reducing gas available to the domestic market. However, elevated inventories continue to limit the upside, with storage expected to remain 6.6% above the five-year average for the week ending August 7. Strong production and additional supply from West Texas pipelines coming online are also expected to keep the market well supplied.

Natural Gas Market Balances Heat and Strong Supply

The Dow Jones Index is picking up 167 points or 0.31 percent on Tuesday. Gains are led by Caterpillar (1.90%), Boeing (1.67%) and Home Depot (1.14%). Biggest losers are Nike (-1.95%), Alphabet (-1.72%) and Cisco Systems (-1.46%).

The Dow Jones Index Opens 0.31% Higher

US stocks were mixed on Tuesday as markets gauged energy prices and risks of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 were slightly higher, with the former testing a record high. Pakistani and Qatari authorities signaled some optimism on a US-Iran deal that could restore oil trade through the Persian Gulf. The move cut the rebound in wholesale fuel prices, initially prompted by President Trump hardening his rhetoric on Tehran. Yields softened and lent respite to banks, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs inching up. Nvidia jumped 1.5% after raising $500 billion with banks privately for the buildout of more AI infrastructure, raising the leverage in the sector. Contrarily, Intel extended its 4% slide yesterday with a 1.5% drop as it raised its expected stock sale by $5 billion to $20 billion. The US will release its CPI tomorrow inflation after multiple FOMC members signaled a possible hike next month. SCMI and CoreWeave will report results after the bell.

US Stocks Trade Mixed

UK natural gas prices fell toward 143 pence a therm, as hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations eased concerns over energy supplies. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said the two sides were “close to some sort of arrangement,” while talks between Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly at an advanced stage. A deal could help restore LNG flows through the Persian Gulf and reduce pressure on European gas markets. Despite the optimism, Commerzbank raised its year-end European gas price forecast to €50/MWh from €45/MWh, while Uniper expects prices to remain around €50-€60/MWh as long as Hormuz remains closed. European storage levels recently fell to the lowest seasonal levels in records going back to 2009, heightening concerns over winter supplies. Meanwhile, persistent European heatwaves are boosting power demand and adding further pressure to gas markets.

UK Natural Gas Prices Fall on Tuesday

Kosovo's annual inflation rate rose to 6.5% in July 2026 from 6% in June. Upward price pressures were mainly due to accelerating growth in transport costs, surging 17.8% from 13.7% in the pior month, while inflation also increased for alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics (5.3% vs 5.1%), restaurants and hotels (5.3% vs 4.5%), clothing and footwear (2.8% vs 2.3%) and recreation, sports and culture (2.3% vs 2%). Meanwhile, inflation stood at 11.1% for housing and utilities. In contrast, inflation slowed for food (2.7% vs 3.9%), furnishings (2.5% vs 3%) and health (4% vs 4.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in the prior month.

Kosovo Annual Inflation Rises in July

European natural gas prices fell below €59 per megawatt-hour as hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations eased concerns over energy supplies. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said the two sides were “close to some sort of arrangement,” while talks between Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly at an advanced stage. A deal could help restore LNG flows through the Persian Gulf and reduce pressure on European gas markets. Despite the optimism, Commerzbank raised its year-end European gas price forecast to €50/MWh from €45/MWh, while Uniper expects prices to remain around €50-€60/MWh as long as Hormuz remains closed. European storage levels recently fell to the lowest seasonal levels in records going back to 2009, heightening concerns over winter supplies. Meanwhile, persistent European heatwaves are boosting power demand and adding further pressure to gas markets.

European Natural Gas Prices Fall

The dollar index was at the 99.8 mark on Tuesday, holding the rebound from the two-month low of 99.5 on Friday amid fresh pressure on the yen, while markets further assessed the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Markets mounted on short positions on the Japanese currency after the US Treasury completed its joint intervention on the foreign exchange market with Tokyo. Treasury Secretary Bessent had bought yen with euros in the Exchange Stabilization Fund to prevent Japan from selling more US bonds to defend their currency, but mountain fiscal pressures for Japan and the surge in US long yields drove the dollar to rebound against the yen. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated her view that a Fed hike is appropriate to combat inflation ahead of tomorrow's CPI report. The data is expected to show that core inflation measures should slow for a second month. Still, the elevated levels of wholesale energy commodities challenge the argument for a hold.

US Dollar Holds Rebound

Brent crude oil fell toward $87 per barrel on Tuesday after Pakistan signaled that the US and Iran could be close to an arrangement aimed at easing tensions and potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said recent developments suggested the sides were “close to some sort of arrangement” and that conditions were moving in favor of peace. Separately, talks between Iran and Oman over restoring maritime traffic through the strategic waterway were reportedly at an advanced stage, according to a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson cited by Al Jazeera. The comments prompted oil prices to reverse earlier gains, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to conflicting signals over the negotiations. Prices had risen sharply after US President Donald Trump adopted a tougher stance toward Tehran, demanding reparations from Iran for deaths linked to attacks and domestic unrest.

Brent Eases on Iran Deal Hopes

Crude oil fell below $82 per barrel on Tuesday after Pakistan signaled that the US and Iran could be close to an arrangement aimed at easing tensions and potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said recent developments suggested the sides were “close to some sort of arrangement” and that conditions were moving in favor of peace. Separately, talks between Iran and Oman over restoring maritime traffic through the strategic waterway were reportedly at an advanced stage, according to a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson cited by Al Jazeera. The comments prompted oil prices to reverse earlier gains, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to conflicting signals over the negotiations. Prices had risen sharply after US President Donald Trump adopted a tougher stance toward Tehran, demanding reparations from Iran for deaths linked to attacks and domestic unrest.

Crude Oil Pulls Back on Iran Deal Hopes

Futures tracking Canadian stocks were little changed on Tuesday after a record in the previous session, as energy prices held off from rebounding further. Oil prices traded near flat after a spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry said negotiations between Oman and Iran were at an advanced stage, offering some hope of progress toward an agreement. Markets are now turning to Wednesday’s US consumer price index for July, which is expected to provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Risks of a hawkish BoC remained after the strong domestic labor data released last week. Meanwhile, Franco Nevada took the spotlight among the miners ahead of its earnings after the bell, while markets continued to digest Barrick's earnings report yesterday.

TSX Futures Steady as Oil Stabilizes

Brazil's annual inflation rate eased to 4.44% in July 2026 from 4.64% in June, in line with forecasts and moving back within the central bank's target range of 1.50%-4.50%. Price growth slowed for food and beverages (3.40% vs. 3.82% in June), clothing (3.87% vs. 3.99%), transport (3.64% vs. 3.95%), health and personal care (6.16% vs. 6.21%), personal expenses (5.22% vs. 5.79%), and education (6.27% vs. 6.33%). The moderation in transport costs was partly driven by slower fuel inflation, which eased to 4.43% from 5.28%, as global oil prices retreated from recent highs amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and the normalization of Middle Eastern supply. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in June, while inflation reached 3.44% year to date.

Brazil CPI Returns to Target Range

Mexico’s industrial production rose 1.7% year-on-year in June 2026, rebounding from a 0.7% decline in May and beating market expectations of 1.5% growth. The recovery was led by mining and quarrying activity, rising 6.6% after a 1.5% gain in the prior month. Gains in construction activity, which rose by 5% after a 0.3% drop, were led by an increase in civil engineering works (8.9%) and buildings (5.2%). Utilities output also rebounded, rising 0.7% after a 0.9% drop. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity edged up 0.1% from a 1.5% decline, led by gains in the manufacturing of computers and communication related equipment (5.8%), machinery and equipment (5.5%), chemical products (5.3%), which were partially offset by declines in other sectors, specially manufacturing of textile inputs and finishing of textiles (-7.2%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity edged up 0.2% in June, rebounding from a 0.8% drop in the prior month.

Mexico Industrial Activity Rises More Than Expected

Futures tracking US equity indices pared losses as markets gauged energy prices and their impact on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 were slightly higher, with the former testing a record high. Pakistani and Qatari authorities signaled some optimism on a US-Iran deal that could restore oil trade through the Persian Gulf. The move cut the rebound in wholesale fuel prices, initially prompted by President Trump hardening his rhetoric on Tehran. Yields trimmed their jump and lent respite to financial stocks, with major banks trading higher premarket. Also, Nvidia jumped 1.5% after raising $500 billion with banks privately for the buildout of more AI infrastructure, raising the leverage in the sector. Contrarily, Intel extended its 4% slide yesterday with a 1.5% drop as it raised its expected stock sale by $5 billion to $20 billion. The US will release its CPI tomorrow inflation after multiple FOMC members signaled a possible hike next month.

US Futures Rebound

Indian stocks closed firmly lower on Tuesday, their lowest so far this month as the risk of a prolonged Middle East conflict deteriorated the Indian macroeconomic backdrop. The S&P/BSE Sensex fell 0.5% to 78,154 and the NSE Nifty 50 dropped 0.5% to 24,472. Crude oil and refined fuel prices extended their increase during the session after US President Trump hardened his stance on Iran and reiterated that the US can force a deal by waiting until Iran's economy worsens further. Higher oil prices raise costs for India's major import and magnify capital outflows to pressure the rupee, denting demand for domestic assets for foreign investors. Higher energy prices also pressure the RBI to tighten policy. Financial companies closed lower with InduSind Bank, Axis Bank, and Bajaj Finance dropping more than 1%. Energy dependent consumer goods companies also fell with Neste and Hindustan Unilever falling over 1%.

Indian Stocks Close at August Low

South Africa’s manufacturing production fell 1.7% year-on-year in June 2026, easing from a downwardly revised 4.4% decline in May and remaining in contraction for a third consecutive month. The decline in food and beverages (-3.9% vs -5.8%) and wood, wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-8.9% vs -12.9%) softened. Meanwhile, output rebounded for glass and non-metallic products (1.2% vs -8.3%), basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (0.1% vs -5.8%), and radio, television and communication equipment and professional equipment (3.3% vs -4.5%). Growth in petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastics slowed to 1.2% from 2.3%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, manufacturing output rose 0.9%, following a revised 1% increase in May. For the first half of the year, output shrank 1.7% compared to a year earlier.

South Africa Factory Activity Contracts for 3rd Month

Aluminum futures in the UK rose to $3,380 per tonne in August, the highest in nearly two months, on declining supply from key producers. The Alunorte plant in Brazil, the world's largest alumina plant outside of China, was forced to cut operations to half capacity amid the lack of natural gas from its supplier. The developments deepened the detriment to Norsk Hydro, the main client for Alunorte. The firm had already declared two force majeures on aluminum sales after its joint Qatari venture Qatalum plant was forced to shut off production on natural gas shortages after Iran had damaged energy and metallurgy infrastructure in the Middle East. Supply from nations in the Persian Gulf has been hampered since the start of the US-Iran conflict in March, due to both direct destruction of plants and blockades on trade routs for exports. The region is responsible for around 10% of global production pre-war. Still, futures are below four-year peaks from this year on softening Chinese demand.

Aluminum Rises to Near 2-Month High

Brent crude oil rose to around $89 per barrel on Tuesday, rising for the fifth straight session as hopes for a US-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to fade. President Donald Trump introduced new demands on Tehran, further complicating negotiations over the strategic waterway. Trump said that Iran would be required to provide compensation for people it has killed in conflicts as part of future negotiations, following Tehran’s own calls for reparations related to the war. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry said negotiations between Oman and Iran were at an advanced stage, offering some hope of progress toward an agreement. Oil prices were also supported by concerns over US inventories, with the latest data showing that crude stocks held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had fallen to their lowest level in more than four decades.

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