China’s industrial profits surged 18.8% year-on-year in the January-May 2026 period, accelerating from a 18.2% growth in the first four months of the year. The latest result reflected the ongoing AI investment boom and continued policy support for advanced industries despite lingering weakness in parts of the property-related sector.

China Industrial Profits Growth Accelerates in January-May

The Ibovespa rose 0.8% to close at 173,295 on Friday, recovering from early losses as gains in financial stocks offset declines in heavyweight commodity shares. Bond yields edged lower as oil prices returned to pre-conflict levels amid easing supply concerns, with more tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite President Donald Trump accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire by targeting cargo ships transiting the strait. Earlier, Iran reaffirmed its right to control shipping through the waterway and warned Gulf states against siding with the US, a day after an attack on a vessel near Oman. Major banks led gains, with Banco do Brasil up 1.4%, Bradesco rising 1.7%, Itaú climbing 1.3%, and Santander advancing 0.6%. On the downside, Vale fell 0.6% despite stronger iron ore prices, while Petrobras dropped 1.0% on lower global oil prices. Braskem plunged 8.4% after a downgrade from Citi.

Ibovespa Rises as Bank Gains Offset Commodity Losses

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.4% to close at 34,980 on Friday, supported by gains in the mining and technology sectors. Mining shares rose on higher gold prices, helped by a weaker dollar and easing expectations of further US interest rate hikes following the latest PCE data. Also, Canada and Japan advanced cooperation on mining projects, including potential joint stockpiling. Barrick gained 1.6%, while Franco-Nevada rose 2.3%. In tech, Shopify rose 4.6%, backed by its Spring ’26 product rollout, while Constellation Software added 1.9%. Celestica, however, fell 6.6%, tracking weakness on Wall Street. Banking stocks traded lower amid geopolitical tensions  after President Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by targeting cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, Iran reaffirmed its right to control shipping through the waterway and warned Gulf states against siding with the US, a day after an attack on a vessel near Oman.

TSX Rises on Mining and Tech Gains

The Dow Jones Index dropped 45 points or 0.09 percent on Friday to close at 51876 points. Losses were led by Caterpillar (-5.67%), Cisco Systems (-4.56%) and Goldman Sachs (-4.07%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Microsoft (5.71%), Salesforce (5.45%) and IBM (5.08%).

The Dow Jones Index Closes 0.09% Lower

Crude oil fell nearly 4% toward $69 a barrel on Friday, the lowest since February 27, as shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated. Volumes surged as vessels openly navigated the waterway following progress toward a US-Iran peace deal, restoring Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75% of prewar levels. Crucially, Saudi Arabia began loading tankers at its Ras Tanura terminal, signaling a major regional output ramp-up. Middle Eastern producers, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, are boosting supply despite difficulties securing enough tankers to transport the additional crude. Iraq is also seeking a higher OPEC production quota to recoup the oil sales it lost during the war. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire by shooting drones at ships in Hormuz. Crude oil recorded an over 10% weekly drop, the largest in a month.

Crude Falls on Surging Hormuz Shipments

Brent crude oil fell to around $72 a barrel on Friday, the lowest since February 27, as shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated. Volumes surged as vessels openly navigated the waterway following progress toward a US-Iran peace deal, restoring Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75% of prewar levels. Crucially, Saudi Arabia began loading tankers at its Ras Tanura terminal, signaling a major regional output ramp-up. Middle Eastern producers, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, are boosting supply despite difficulties securing enough tankers to transport the additional crude. Iraq is also seeking a higher OPEC production quota to recoup the oil sales it lost during the war. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire by shooting drones at ships in Hormuz. Brent recorded an over 10% weekly drop, the largest in a month.

Brent Falls as Hormuz Flows Recover Sharply

US stock indexes closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 inching down 0.05%, the Nasdaq 100 losing 1.1%, and the Dow Jones slipping 44 points. Chipmakers led the declines as investors trimmed positions after Thursday’s rally, which had been fueled by strong guidance from Micron. Its shares fell 7.5%, while peers Nvidia (-0.6%) and Broadcom (-3.7%) also moved lower. The Dow traded more in line with its tech-heavy counterparts after Alphabet (-2.2%) replaced Verizon in the index, though it still ended near record highs. Broader losses were pared as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, after evidence that tankers continued crossing the Strait of Hormuz improved the supply outlook for Middle Eastern energy and reduced fears of multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Still, sentiment remained cautious after President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement by firing at cargo ships transiting the Strait, highlighting the fragility of the truce.

US Stocks Dip as Chipmakers Retreat

Paraguay’s economy expanded 5.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, easing from a 6.2% increase in the previous quarter. The services sector rose 6.6% on strong performances in transportation, financial intermediation, household and government services, real estate, restaurants and hotels, business services, telecommunications, information services, and valuation services. Manufacturing activity increased 6.0%, supported by higher production of oils, dairy products, sugar, milling and bakery products, beverages and tobacco, chemical and pharmaceutical products, paper, wood, non-metallic minerals, basic metals, machinery and equipment, and other manufactured goods. Agriculture grew 8.2%, driven by stronger soybean, sugarcane, cassava, beans, sunflower, and tobacco output. The construction sector expanded 5.6% on faster private-sector project execution, while utilities rose 4.7%, supported by solid performances in electricity distribution, water supply, and sanitation.

Paraguay Economy Grows in Q1 2026

Markets will monitor the flow of tankers and commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, as the recent rebound in traffic drove energy prices to decline. The US will release a batch of labor market data, headlined by the June jobs report, topping off results from the JOLTS, ADP report, and the Challenger job cuts report. Other key data includes the ISM Manufacturing PMI, factory orders, and Case-Schiller home prices. In Europe, the ECB will host speeches by Governing Council members and other central bankers in their annual forum. Also, the Eurozone and its largest economies will publish their inflation rate. In Japan, the Tankan index will take the spotlight along with industrial production, retail sales, and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, China will post both official and broader industry PMIs.

Week Ahead - Jun 29th

The FTSE MIB fell 1% to close at 51,265 on Friday, pressured by AI-related stocks and energy companies. Energy engineering firm Saipem led the declines, dropping 5% as crude prices extended their retreat, while Eni (-1.3%) and A2A (-0.7%) also came under pressure. STMicroelectronics slid 4.8% as investors renewed concerns that debt-funded AI investments may shift market focus from growth expectations to monetization, dragging Prysmian down 3.5%. Banks also weakened, led by FinecoBank (-2.3%), Banca Mediolanum (-2%), Banco BPM (-1.8%), UniCredit (-1.4%), Intesa Sanpaolo (-1.3%), and BPER Banca (-1.2%), with UniCredit warning that elevated market volatility is likely to persist through the summer. On the upside, defense-related stocks rebounded after recent losses, with Leonardo rising 0.3% and Avio gaining 0.8%. Ferrari led the gainers with a 3.1% advance, followed by DiaSorin (+2.9%) and Italgas (+1.4%). For the week, the benchmark index recorded its first weekly loss in three weeks.

FTSE MIB Posts First Weekly Loss in Three Weeks

The DAX 40 extended initial losses to close about 1.3% down at 24,682 on Friday, the lowest in two weeks, and booking a 1.2% weekly loss. The selloff in chipmakers intensified, pressuring the index, amid global uncertainty around tech stocks and mounting concerns over the rising cost of AI infrastructure. Infineon Technologies sank more than 5%. Other stocks with exposure to the AI-driven data centers were affected, including Siemens Energy (-5.6%) and Hochtief.(-1.8%). Zalando, on the other hand, plunged about 7% after the German financial regulator opened an investigation into the online fashion retailer's 2025 report due to suspicions of violations of accounting rules. Volkswagen fell 1.8% after reports the group is considering deeper workforce cuts of up to 100,000 jobs and potential factory closures to restore competitiveness and improve profitability. On the upside, SAP (2.2%) and Beiersdorf (2.1%) were the biggest gainers.

DAX Closes at 2-Week Low

The FTSE MIB Index dropped 518 points or 1.00 percent on Friday to close at 51265 points. Losses were led by Saipem (-4.88%), Amplifon (-4.84%) and STMicroelectronics (-3.86%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Ferrari NV (3.42%), Diasorin (2.92%) and Brunello Cucinelli (1.60%).

The FTSE MIB Index Closes 1.00% Lower

The DAX Index decreased 324 points or 1.29 percent on Friday to close at 24671 points. The decline was led by Zalando (-6.80%), Porsche Automobil (-6.59%) and Siemens Energy (-5.84%).

The DAX Index Closes 1.29% Lower

The CAC 40 Index fell 58 points or 0.69 percent on Friday to close at 8373 points. Leading the losses are ArcelorMittal (-3.24%), STMicroelectronics (-3.23%) and Safran (-2.85%). Top gainers were Danone (3.06%), Edenred (1.99%) and Dassault Systemes (1.93%).

The CAC 40 Index Closes 0.69% Lower

US equities cut earlier losses on Friday as lower oil prices softened inflationary risks. The S&P 500 and the Dow swung above the flatline, with the latter set to close at a record high of nearly 52,100. Evidence that oil tankers continued to cross the Strait of Hormuz improved the supply outlook from Middle Eastern energy, easing concerns of multiple rate hikes by the Fed this year. Companies in traditional economic sectors gained, with Visa and Walmart adding over 2%. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly soared 7% after the EU backed the use of its leukemia therapy. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 was 0.4% lower on fresh uncertainty on the AI trade. Chip producers slumped to trim yesterday's rally, which stemmed from the strong outlook by Micron. Its stock was 4% down, while Sandisk, Lam Research, and Western Digital fell up to 10%. The Dow is set to trade in more similar direction as tech-heavy counterparts on Monday as Alphabet will replace Verizon.

US Stocks Trim Losses

The FTSE 100 Index dropped 18 points or 0.17 percent on Friday to close at 10512 points. Losses were led by Croda International (-3.94%), Berkeley (-3.92%) and Vistry Group (-3.21%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Endeavour (3.08%), Coca-Cola (2.84%) and Burberry (2.77%).

The FTSE 100 Index Closes 0.17% Lower

The CAC 40 fell 0.5% to close at 8,385 on Friday, as renewed selling pressure in technology stocks weighed on risk appetite amid persistent concerns over elevated AI-driven valuations. While Micron earnings offered some reassurance on underlying AI demand, reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, along with indications that Apple and Microsoft are considering price increases for some products, added to uncertainty around the sector. STMicroelectronics fell 3.8%. TotalEnergies lost 1.3% as oil prices declined on easing supply concerns, with more tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite Iran reaffirming its control over shipping in the Strait and warning Gulf states against siding with the US, a day after an attack on a vessel near Oman. Industrial stocks also traded lower, with Airbus down 1.6% and Safran shedding 3.2%, as investors also assessed reports that the company is evaluating a potential acquisition of Exail Technologies.

CAC 40 Falls as Tech Selloff Resumes

European stocks closed firmly lower on Friday amid fresh pressure from banks, auto producers, and companies in the AI infrastructure sector. The Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.9% to 6,212, a 1.2% drop on the week, and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.7% to 635.5, unchanged since last Friday. Chip producers in North America reversed their rally stemmed from Micron's strong guidance to reflect fresh skepticism on the AI trade. This dented chip producer Infineon with a 4.3% decline and ASML with a 1% drop, while Siemens Energy, which has large exposure to data center power operations, slide 5.6%. Meanwhile, banks dropped sharply despite further expectations that the ECB may hold off from delivering another rate hike this year after oil prices dropped further. Deutsche Bank dropped 2.7% while BNP Paribas and BBVA fell nearly 2%. Lastly, Volkswagen slipped 3.9% after reports indicated it could cut up to 100,000 jobs and close four factories in its largest overhaul yet.

European Stocks Close Week Lower

The FTSE 100 edged down on Friday, tracking a broader decline in European equities fueled by retreating oil prices and a US technology selloff. Oil prices weakened on growing optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal and restored shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, directly hitting energy heavyweights BP and Shell, which dropped 2% and 0.8% respectively. Globally, market sentiment soured following a slide in Apple shares and reports that OpenAI might delay its initial public offering. This broader risk-off environment dragged down banks like HSBC by over 1.5%, and aerospace manufacturing giants Rolls-Royce (-1.4%). Mining majors Rio Tinto was down 0.4% and Glencore slid over 2%. Defying the downturn, pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca added 1.4%, and consumer staples Unilever rose 0.7% and British American Tobacco gained 1.5%. Despite Friday's loss, the UK index rose 1.5% this week.

FTSE 100 Falls on Friday

The Swiss franc strengthened to around $0.807 against a weaker dollar, rebounding from a one-year low of $0.81227 hit on June 24, as sliding oil prices tempered Federal Reserve rate hike bets. Despite gaining ground, the franc remains 4.8% weaker than before the Middle East conflict, and a potential peace deal could further reduce haven demand. The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0% for a fourth consecutive meeting, maintaining that the current stance remains consistent with price stability and economic growth. However, the SNB revised its inflation outlook higher and reiterated its willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if needed. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund reported that Swiss economic growth will slow to 1.1% in 2026 amid weak external demand and tariff uncertainties. The Swiss government also trimmed its own 2026 domestic growth forecast to 0.9%, citing the dampening effects of recent energy price spikes.

Swiss Franc Rebounds From One-Year Low

Zambia 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to 16.84%, the lowest since May 2017. Over the past 4 weeks, Zambia Government Bond 10y lost 1.00 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 215.00 basis points.

Zambia 10Y Bond Yield Hits 9-year Low

Brent Crude Oil decreased 5.03% to 71.476 USD/Bbl

Brent Crude Oil is down by 5.03%

The economy of Uganda expanded by 5.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, slowing from a 8.5% advance in the previous period. Output growth moderated significantly for primary activities (2.1% vs 8.8% in Q4), mainly attributed to cash crops (7.2% vs 12.6%), fishing (-10.3% vs 9.5%) and forestry (-4.8% vs 8.3%). The industrial sector also lost momentum (5.9% vs 12.3%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP rose by 1.2%.

Uganda GDP Growth Slows in Q1

Crude Oil decreased to 68.86 USD/Bbl, the lowest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Crude Oil WTI lost 22.2%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 5.31%.

Crude Oil Hits 17-week Low

US natural gas prices climbed toward $3.35 per MMBtu, the highest since early February, propelled by increased flows to liquefied natural gas export facilities and forecasts for warmer weather through July 10. This hotter weather is expected to drive up electricity demand for air conditioning in a country where gas-fired plants generate roughly 40% of the power supply. Average daily flows to major export plants rose to 17.3 billion cubic feet so far in June, up from 17.1 billion cubic feet in May, boosted by record feedgas activity at the Golden Pass facility in Texas. Simultaneously, the Energy Information Administration reported a near-normal storage injection of 76 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 19. This addition keeps domestic stockpiles about 5.7% above seasonal norms. At the same time, production in the Lower 48 states has been steady at 109.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, unchanged from the previous month.

US Natgas Prices Rise to Nearly 5-Month High

The US dollar index weakened for a second consecutive session, falling to 101.1 on Friday after a broadly in-line PCE inflation report led investors to slightly scale back expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. The dollar’s losses were most pronounced against the euro and the Swiss franc. Still, the greenback remains up about 0.3% for the week, supported by a more hawkish Fed tone earlier in the month. New Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control, easing concerns that he might come under pressure from US President Trump to cut interest rates prematurely. The Fed also raised its 2026 PCE inflation projections. Headline PCE inflation accelerated to 4.1% in May, reinforcing the view that inflation remains sticky. Markets are currently pricing in three Fed rate hikes this year, with the probability of the first move in September standing at around 62%.

Dollar Down for 2nd Day

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.39% on Friday and is down 7 basis points on the week, after a broadly in-line PCE inflation report prompted investors to slightly scale back expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. Headline PCE inflation rose to 4.1%, while the core rate climbed to 3.4%, the highest since 2023 and well above the Fed’s 2% target, though both readings matched forecasts. Meanwhile, markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East. Oil prices extended recent declines, even as geopolitical tensions resurfaced following an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. Fed rate expectations remain elevated, with markets pricing in three rate hikes this year, and the probability of the first move in September standing at around 62%.

Treasury Yields Little Changed on Friday

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, extended its decline into a fifth consecutive session on Friday, falling about 2.6% to its lowest since mid-April at 2,524 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, dropped 4.9% to 3,640 points; and the supramax index decreased by 0.5% to its lowest since June 15 at 1,670 points. By contrast, the panamax index, which tracks vessels carrying around 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose by 0.7% to 2,110 points. For the week, the benchmark index posted a 7.3% decline.

Baltic Dry Index Falls for 5th Day

Sugar increased to 14.64 USd/Lbs, the highest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar gained 3.44%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 7.49%.

Sugar Hits 4-week High

The S&P/TSX Composite Index traded near flat around the 35,000 mark on Friday, as losses in banking and energy stocks were offset by gains in mining and technology. Energy shares were pressured as oil prices fell on easing supply concerns, with more tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite Iran reaffirming its control over shipping in the Strait and warning Gulf states against siding with the US, a day after an attack on a vessel near Oman underscored the fragility of the preliminary peace deal. Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor Energy both lost more than 1%. Major banks also traded lower as bond yields moved higher, with RBC, TD Bank, and BMO down about 0.5%. Meanwhile, Canada and Japan advanced cooperation on mining projects, including potential joint stockpiling, while gold prices rose. Agnico Eagle and Barrick Gold gained around 1%. In technology, Shopify rose 2.5% and Constellation Software added 1.3%, while Celestica fell 4.3%, tracking weakness on Wall Street.

TSX Holds Near Flat

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of 48.9, although it remained slightly below forecasts of 50. Still, sentiment improved from 44.8 in May, the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in gasoline prices. The expectations gauge was at 50.7, the highest in three months, compared to 49.3 in the initial estimate, as consumers’ worries over long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing. Meanwhile, the current conditions gauge was revised lower to 47.7 from a preliminary of 48.4 and compared to 45.8 in May. The cost of living remains at the forefront of consumers’ minds. Year-ahead inflation expectations inched down to a still-elevated 4.6% from 4.8% in May, remining well above 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began. Long-run inflation expectations fell more than expected to 3.3% from 3.4% in the preliminary estimate and 3.9% in May.

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Hgher

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the survey of the University of Michigan, were at 4.6% in June 2026, as initially estimated, down from a nine-month high of 4.8% in May. In the meantime, the five-year inflation outlook, was revised slightly down to 3.3%, from a preliminary reading of 3.4% and below May's seven-month high of 3.9%.

US 1-Year Inflation Outlook Unrevised in June

CROBEX increased to 4455.00 Index Points, the highest since February 2008. Over the past 4 weeks, Zagreb Stock Exchange Stock Index gained 6.07%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 22.93%.

Stocks in Croatia Hit 18-year High

The Ibovespa edged lower to trade below the 171,500 mark on Friday as investors assessed Brazil’s latest labor market data. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.6% in the rolling quarter ending in May, matching forecasts and holding at the lowest level in the historical series. The resilience of the labor market reinforced expectations that the BCB may keep interest rates elevated for longer. Major banks traded lower, with Itaú down more than 0.5% and Bradesco losing nearly 1%. Petrobras also fell 1% as oil prices returned to pre-conflict levels amid easing supply concerns, with more tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite Iran reaffirming its control over shipping in the Strait and warning Gulf states against siding with the US, a day after an attack on a vessel near Oman highlighted the fragility of the preliminary peace deal. Meanwhile, meatpackers extended gains, with MBRF rising more than 2.5%.

Ibovespa Slips as Labor Market Holds Firm

The Dow Jones Index is losing 278 points. Losses were led by Caterpillar (-3.91%), Goldman Sachs (-3.71%) and Cisco Systems (-3.13%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Salesforce (3.80%), IBM (2.38%) and Microsoft (2.34%).

The Dow Jones Index Opens 0.53% Lower

US equities were firmly lower on Friday as fresh uncertainty on the AI trade reignited selling pressure for chip producers and AI companies. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Dow lost 0.3%. Hyperscale cloud providers in the Magnificent 7 held their sharp drops from the previous session on lingering concerns that AI spending may have been overdone, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Oracle dropping more than 1%. Also, memory and other chip producers came under fresh selling, trimming gains from yesterday's rally fueled by Micron's earnings results amid concerns that AI infrastructure spending will slow. Micron and Sandisk dropped 5%. Concurrently, a report indicated that OpenAI could delay its IPO, also aligned with lower spending for compute capacity. While the Dow has recently outperformed other major indices due to its higher exposure to traditional sectors instead of speculative AI companies, the movements may converge on Monday as Alphabet replaces Verizon.

US Stocks Pull Back on Friday

Silver rose above $58 per ounce on Friday but remained down nearly 10% for the week, extending the losses recorded in the previous week, as the Fed's hawkish stance continued to support the US dollar. New Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation under control, easing concerns that he might bow to pressure from US President Trump to cut interest rates prematurely. The Fed also raised its 2026 PCE inflation projections, while the headline PCE inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in May. Markets are now pricing in three Fed rate hikes this year, with the probability of the first increase in September standing at around 62%. Silver has broadly tracked the weakness across precious metals but has underperformed gold since the outbreak of the Iran war, losing roughly half its value since reaching a record high in January. Silver is also an industrial metal, making it more sensitive to changes in investors' risk appetite and expectations for global growth.

Silver Down About 10% on the Week

Gold traded around $4,040 per ounce on Friday, edging up for a second consecutive session after the latest US PCE inflation report came in broadly in line with expectations, prompting investors to modestly scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Despite the rebound, gold remains down about 3% for the week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline, as the hawkish tone struck by the Fed continued to support the US dollar. Meanwhile, new Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation under control, easing concerns that he might yield to pressure from US President Trump to cut interest rates prematurely. The Fed also raised its 2026 PCE inflation projections. The headline PCE inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in May. Markets are currently pricing in three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, with the probability of the first increase coming in September standing at around 62%.

Gold Down for 4th Week

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged lower on Friday, following broader technology-driven weakness on Wall Street. North American tech stocks reversed earlier gains as concerns over hyperscaler AI spending outweighed upbeat demand signals from Micron and Qualcomm. Energy shares also came under pressure as oil prices fell back to pre-conflict levels on easing supply concerns, with more tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz. This was despite Iran claiming its right to control shipping in the Strait and warning Gulf states against siding with the US, a day after an attack on a vessel near Oman underscored the fragility of the preliminary peace deal. Separately, Canada and Japan are advancing cooperation on mining projects, including potential joint stockpiling. Gold prices also edged higher, offering support to mining stocks.

TSX Futures Slip on Tech Weakness

The goods trade deficit in the United States widened to $105.8 billion in May of 2026 from $83 billion in the previous month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, to mark the widest trade gap in over one year. It contrasted to expectations of  an $85 billion gap. Imports rose by 3.6% to $313.4 billion, the highest in 14 months despite the tariffs passed by the presidential administration. Foreign purchases were higher for consumer goods (5.7% to $59.5 billion), industrial supplies (4.8% to $55.9 billion), foods, feeds, and beverages (4.3% to $18.2 billion), and other goods (11.5% to $15.4 billion). In turn, exports dropped by 5.4% to $207.7 billion, the third-highest on record, to general inflation of domestically-produced industries. Sales fell for industrial supplies (-7% to $82.7 billion) and consumer goods (-9.2% to $20.7%).

US Goods Trade Gap Widens to 14-Month High

Canada’s wholesale trade is estimated to have declined 0.7% month-over-month in May 2026, reversing a 0.6% increase in the previous month. The anticipated decrease partially reflects lower sales in machinery, equipment and supplies.

Canada Wholesale Trade Expected to Fall in May

US wholesale inventories increased by 0.3% month-over-month to $943.9 billion in May 2026, following a 0.7% rise in April and above market forecasts for a 0.2% gain, advance data showed. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in wholesale inventories, but the pace moderated from March, which saw the strongest growth since August 2022. Stocks of durable goods rose by 0.3%, after a 0.9% increase in April, while those of nondurables rose by 0.5%, after a 0.3% advance in the prior month. On a yearly basis, wholesale inventories rose by 4.3%.

US Wholesale Inventories Rise More than Expected

Mexico’s trade balance widened to $2.26 billion in May 2026 from a $1.23 billion a year earlier, falling short of market expectations for a $4.6 billion surplus. Exports rose 32.6% year-on-year to $69.5 billion, matching April's pace, driven by an 88.7% surge in mining shipments and a 25.1% increase in manufacturing exports, led by machinery and specialized industrial equipment. However, auto exports declined 2.2%. Imports accelerated 24.1% to $67.3 billion, mainly due to higher purchases of intermediate goods, particularly oil, which rose 31.5%. Imports of consumer and capital goods also increased 6.5% and 1.6%, respectively. In the first five months of 2026, Mexico posted a cumulative trade surplus of $5.78 billion.

Mexico Trade Balance Widens in May

Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in the rolling quarter ending in May 2026 from 5.8% in the previous period, matching forecasts and marking the lowest reading since January. The number of unemployed stood at 6.1 million, broadly unchanged from the prior quarter, while employment rose 0.5%. Sector data showed quarterly gains in transportation and public administration, while annual growth was led by agriculture, transportation, and public services. Domestic services remained the only sector to post an annual decline. The underemployed population due to insufficient working hours fell 5.7% in the quarter, while the number of discouraged workers dropped 10.2%. The informality rate edged down to 37.3% of total employment from 37.5%. Meanwhile, average real monthly earnings across all jobs held steady at BRL 3,726.

Brazil Jobless Rate Eases in May

Brazil's current account deficit narrowed slightly to $3.2 billion in May 2026 from $3.2 billion in the same month of the previous year, coming in below market expectations of a $4.2 billion deficit. The trade surplus widened by $0.5 billion to $7.8 billion from $7.1 billion last year, as exports rose 6.6%, outpacing a 5.3% increase in imports. The secondary income surplus increased slightly to $0.57 billion from $0.44 billion a year ago. Meanwhile, the services deficit widened to $5.2 billion from $4.6 billion, driven by higher spending on international travel, telecommunications and IT services, and intellectual property. The primary income deficit was little changed from the previous year at $5.5 billion, with a 6.8% decline in net profit and dividend outflows, while net interest payments fell 18.1%.

Brazil Current Account Deficit Lower Than Expected

US equity futures were firmly lower on Friday as fresh uncertainty on the AI trade reignited selling pressure for chip producers and AI companies. Contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively, to two-week lows. Hyperscale cloud providers in the Magnificent 7 held their sharp drops from the previous session on lingering concerns that AI spending may have been overdone, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Oracle dropping more than 1% premarket. Also, memory and other chip producers came under fresh selling, trimming gains from yesterday's rally fueled by Micron's earnings results amid concerns that AI infrastructure spending will slow. Micron and Sandisk dropped 5%. Concurrently, a report indicated that OpenAI could delay its IPO, also aligned with lower spending for compute capacity. In turn, the Dow was close to the flatline after testing record highs yesterday to reflect resilience from traditional sectors of the economy.

US Futures Turn Lower on Tech Volatility

Sugar futures in the US traded around 14.2 US cents, up from recent two-month lows of 13.8 US cents, supported by concerns about the global supply. Market participants weighed weaker Brazilian output and India’s rainfall deficits while also monitoring the effects of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Data released by Unica showed sugar output in Brazil's key center-south region fell more than 25% year-on-year to 2.2 million metric tons in the second half of May, while the volume of sugarcane processed was 13% smaller at 41.5 million tons, affected by rainfall that interrupted harvesting in some regions. The data also showed mills are allocating more raw material to ethanol production due to economic advantages. Meanwhile, attention remained on weather in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer. Latest data released by the Indian Meteorological Department shows that accumulated rainfall for the monsoon season was 42% below the historical average as of June 24.

Sugar Futures On the Rise

Cotton futures traded below 77 cents per pound, dropping over 13% from a nearly two-year high of 87.77 cents hit on May 11 amid lower American exports. A softer greenback made US cotton more competitive overseas, but export sales remained lackluster, according to the latest USDA data. Adding to the pressure, a dip in oil prices to last seen in pre-war levels helped capital gains in cotton, as substitutes gain preference cost-wise due to restored shipments of naphtha, a petrochemical used to produce competing synthetic fibers. Despite this pullback, cotton remains up nearly 18% this year due to an outlook for tight global supplies. Persistent dry weather in India and the risk of a Super El Niño affecting key growing regions have reduced the production outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil is poised to benefit from elevated prices and forecasts for drier weather in the US, remaining on track to reach a sales record of 3.1 million tons by the end of June.

Cotton Nears April Lows

HRC Steel decreased to 1185.00 USD/T, the lowest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Hot-Rolled Coil Steel gained 0.85%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 34.55%.

HRC Steel Hits 4-week Low

Brent crude oil fell to below $73 a barrel on Friday, the lowest since February 27, as shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated. Volumes surged as vessels openly navigated the waterway following progress toward a US-Iran peace deal, restoring Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75% of prewar levels. Crucially, Saudi Arabia began loading tankers at its Ras Tanura terminal, signaling a major regional output ramp-up. Despite a temporary 2% price rebound on Thursday after the container ship Ever Lovely was struck by a projectile southeast of Oman, President Donald Trump confirmed the strait remains open and traffic has continued. Middle Eastern producers, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, are boosting supply despite difficulties securing enough tankers to transport the additional crude. Iraq is also seeking a higher OPEC production quota to recoup the oil sales it lost during the war. Brent was on track for a 10% weekly drop, the largest in a month.

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