Mặc dù cơn bão tại Vịnh Mexico đã khiến giá dầu vượt qua các mốc 67 và 68.4, nhưng giá vẫn bị áp lực giảm trong xu hướng chính. Nếu không có tin tức mới, giá dầu có thể dao động ngang, ưu tiên bán khi giá cao. Tuy nhiên, khi tác động của cơn bão tại Vịnh Mexico giảm dần, giá dầu có thể phá vỡ các mức hỗ trợ thấp trước đó và chuyển sang xu hướng giảm, do đó về mặt ngắn hạn nên theo chiều bán.

Short WTIUSD in short time period

After the European Central Bank's rate cut yesterday, the euro surged significantly, driving gold up as well. On one hand, this is due to the reverse impact of the ECB's decision being finalized. On the other hand, some traders speculate that since Europe cut rates by 60 basis points, the U.S. Federal Reserve might follow. As a result, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed shot up to 43% this morning, causing the dollar to drop and gold to spike. However, Europe cut the less critical refinancing rate, while the more important deposit rate was only cut by 25 basis points. Given the core CPI, PPI, and unemployment data, the Fed is still likely to cut rates by 25 basis points. Thus, the recent surge in gold lacks strong support and may lead to a sharp drop following this rapid rise.

XAU/USD today status according to market's news

Although the sentiment index is bullish, the positions on both sides are in the loss stage, so the Australian dollar still has room to fall. In addition, the further decline of iron ore stocks in the early trading put further pressure on the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar then touched the horizontal support of 0.6645. However, considering the positive sentiment indicators and the debate may drive the rebound of crude oil, the trading strategy should be mainly high-altitude.

Short AUD/USD

Harris has abandoned the fracking ban. Trump’s chances of winning have increased, emphasizing low energy costs. Libya may resume oil production. Concerns about the Chinese economy are rising. OPEC has agreed to halt production increases but plans to continue in December. Oil demand is unlikely to recover in the next two months, limiting bullish prospects for oil prices. Overall, the oil price remains in a bearish trend. Tonight’s employment data could slightly benefit oil prices if favorable, but could negatively impact them if poor. The strategy should focus on breakout following.

WTI Crude Oil Market Outlook

Recent news about the Ukrainian cabinet reshuffle has led to market expectations of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which reduces the attractiveness of gold as a hedge asset. In addition, the author believes that the unwillingness of the US and European governments to directly participate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict also limits the room for gold to rise.

Gold falls, interest rate cut expectations are too high

The AUD/CNH pair is showing signs of potential weakness. Traders are advised to consider short positions near the resistance level of 4.820, with the possibility of switching to long positions if this resistance is broken. Recent Chinese economic data has been weaker than expected, which has negatively impacted both the yuan and the Australian dollar, given their economic ties. Technical analysis suggests that if the Australian dollar continues to fall and breaches the support level around 4.786, it could lead to a significant downward trend. However, this information is general advice and not tailored to individual financial situations.

AUD/CNH Short-Term Trading Strategy

Core PCE data had a significant impact on the market, with the dollar index strengthening and gold prices under pressure. Geopolitical tensions continue to bring uncertainty to the market. Likely to retrace downward toward support around 2,494 intraday. If it breaks below this level, short positions can be considered.

The impact of PCE

Technical Analysis:
The K-line has already broken below the key head-and-shoulders neckline at the 1.11 level. The trading strategy should primarily focus on shorting upon a pullback. There is still pressure from the trendline above the current price, so attention should be paid to the resistance effect below the neckline.

Fundamental Analysis:
Considering that the CPI in Germany has already impacted the Euro, the impact of today's CPI from France and the Eurozone is relatively smaller. The key factor is the U.S. PCE, followed by the German unemployment rate. Currently, the PCE is expected to be higher than the previous value, and as long as it meets expectations, the dollar will likely continue the upward trend from yesterday's GDP data. Expectations for an interest rate cut will also continue to decline. The EUR/USD pair is mainly bearish on a pullback.

Selling on the high side, aligning with intraday data

Australia's inflation rate of 3.5%, higher than the expected 3.4%, caused the Australian dollar to rise rapidly.

Long AUD/USD

It's a crucial time for policy adjustments! Following Powell’s remarks on "inflation being controlled" and "increased risk of job deterioration," expectations for interest rate cuts have led to an immediate drop in the USD.

Short USD/JPY

On the gold hourly chart, gold prices broke below the top neckline and Fibonacci retracement line at 2495 and began to rebound when it touched the previous high level and retracement line. Considering that gold has the same overshoot pressure as U.S. stocks, the trading strategy can adopt the method of retracement shorting, and the resistance is in the neckline 2495-2500 range. It can be combined with Powell's hawkish speech and short at a high level. The support below the current price is at the retracement lines at 2475 and 2460, respectively. Powell's speech will not allow gold to start a downward trend for the time being.

Gold Price Analysis: Retracement Strategy and Impact of Powell's Speech

Strategy: Focus on intraday breakouts, likely around the U.S. market opening. Short-term bearish bias after breaking 96.8.

Resistance: 99 (bullish above this) with CCI indicator support.

Support: 98.3 (bearish below this); 96.8 and 95 (take profit & breakout points).

Fundamentals: Recent U.S. stock gains have pushed AUD/JPY higher, but recent upward momentum has been driven by negative news like monkeypox and housing data, which may not last. With ongoing market risks, the Australian dollar faces downward pressure, while the yen has potential for appreciation. Short-term, bearish opportunities are stronger, but wait for a price reversal.

Technical: With recent low-impact data, use four-hour CCI signals for intraday trades. Watch for a break above 99 (bullish) or below 98.3 (bearish). Wait for a price drop below 96.6 to follow the trend.

May Chen

May Chen

Sep 16 2024

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XAU/USD today status according to market's news

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