According to the 4h chart based on Sydney time, the pair is battling around 61.8% retracement level for the fall from 1.14994 to 1.12134. The EUR encountered great support from the 100 SMA and rebounded back. However, the bearish moment will extend if 50% level at 1.13564 gets pierced. The follow-through selling-off will cause loss till 23.6% level at 1.12809. The negative bull power adds credence to the argument.
On the flip side, if the ascending get extended by penetrating the 61.8% level and sustained. A further gain is foreseeable back at 1.14382.&nbsp;

Bearish moment for EUR

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As the reveal of the economic data of UK and interest rate decision， It seems like the Sterling Pound can enjoy the Christmas holiday as the Parliament members did. The price high dealt at 1.269. After the release of the economic data, the pair rechallenged it and rebounded back to the renewed price 1.265. Every factor related to Pound is nothing but the Brexit. A further deal will be reached in January. From the view of American rival, the shutdown of the USA government is simmering. The impact on the greenback will be magnificently high under such recessed condition in the stock market.
The decision on Bank of England is easy to forecast as the impasse in Brexit has significantly escalated the economic sufferings in England. Stock gains on FTSE 100 have all its gain since 2000. The lower low refreshed had crashed to 6652 and technically rebounded. It is a wise and expected move for BoE to keep the rate unchanged. We are unlikely to see the further progress from BoE in the first quarter of 2019. However, BoE warned that Brexit uncertainty had ‘ intensified considerably’, but the falling of oil price support the economy from below.
And the retail data surprised the market. Pure retail sales rose to 1.2% which is 100 points higher than the estimation. With the fuel count in, the Retail sales number amounted to 1.4% which is 1.1% higher than the expected. Later this afternoon, the revised GDP for Q3 will be out.&nbsp;
On the side of Greenback, Personal consumption data will be out later in this Friday. The performance of the labour market is not bad. The initial jobless claim is 2k less than expected. The problem merged is the shutdown emergency. The House increased the chances of a partial U.S government shutdown by voting to give President Donald Trump funds for his proposed border wall in a spending bill the Senate is sure to reject hours before a midnight Friday deadline. The economic effects of a shut down over the Christmas and New Year holidays may be significant. The last shutdown caused 24 billion loss to the USA.
Technically speaking, the pair is recovering from the year low at 1.251. &nbsp;After the rally at 23.6% retracement level. GBP may take more profit over the weakened USD. Short-term SMA is piercing 60 SMA which will fuel up the pair to go into a bullish stance. As the ascendant trend line constructed, the short-to-medium term trend may be positive. Technical readings are directionless. Only bull power suggests the buyer is still on board. An extended bullish is expected.

Data helped GBP to get better result against USD

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European Central bank kept all the key interest rates unchanged as broadly expected. The asset purchase program will be concluded and so does the QE Era. The dovish statement pulls down the EURUSD pair to the lowest 1.1330, but all the loss is offset half. It is an unfruitful conference as estimated in spite of some trivial points to concern.
Except for the Italian made concession for the budget plan, EUR barely had any good news to appreciate. Peacefully, the ECB quarterly meeting brings no surprise to the market. Unchanged rate and end of QE indicated the winding up of the Draghi plan to boost the demand to get dynamic. The new proposal will be on the agenda next year. The ECB president reported that while risk s are still ‘ broadly balanced’. However, the risks to the growth outlook are moving to the downside owing to the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility. The forecast of the economic growth and inflation for the next year was lowered consequently. Combining with the closing Brexit deal, if no-deal Brexit occurred. The downside space will be thoroughly opened, and selling-off will be the tune for EUR.
Meanwhile, White House declared the postpone of the tariff against China till March. Beijing has pledged to cancel retaliatory tariffs on US cars, buy a significant amount of US soybeans, deal with intellectual property thieves and scale back its strategy to accelerate the development in high-tech sectors. The greenback will get a devaluation for the compromising.
Also, it is the end of another week, the December Preliminary Market PMI for the Euro area and some detailed figures for Germany and Spain will be out. The US will release November Retail Sales, up 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the Industrial Production for November, and Markit PMI. A positive reading will languish the EUR below 1.1300.
Technically speaking, The renewed price is now around 1.13581 and equates to the 50% retracement level of the 1.14981/1.12161 decline. Moving range of the pair is narrowing down in the symmetrical triangle, and the volatility is reducing. In the short-term, the outlook remained bearish for the pair but the space downward is limited. To the medium term, the pair is relatively neutral. The directionless technical readings add credence to the judgement. To verify the trend, the pair should breach the support at 1.13283 or the resistance at 1.13893 to indicate a clear path.

ECB set the stage to end quantitative ease and maintain the current rate

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Technically speaking, the overall outlook for the USD against CHF will be majorly bearish in the following days. Short-term 20 SMA just penetrated the 60 SMA from above to induce the new round of decline, but the pair is very close to the November low on 0.99 which will be a psychological mark to overcome. Technical readings suggest an extended bearish trend for the pair as the reading is steady below 40. Bull power is significantly below the bench and no signal to upend the trend. However, the support will be unchanged and hard to break.&nbsp;
On the flip side, the recovery to the 1.00 can claim the end of the bearish tendency.

Risk aversion drived CHF to appreciate

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According to the 4h chart, the skewness of the pair is a downside and escalating after the risk aversion sparked by the apprehension of the CFO of Huawei. An open descending channel is constructed with the pattern. Consequently, the overall trend for the short-run is bearish. Technical readings add credence to the analysis as the Bull power are mostly negative and MACD in the unfavourable area. It is highly recommended that investor go short on this pair. The entrance can be taken on the 23.6% retracement level and cease on 112.310 at the lowest low on November.

JPY remained skewed to downside

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The offshore renminbi has reportedly plummeted against greenback even though the ADP employment index is lower than expected. The renewed price is now around 6.876 around after the great-selling-off for USD which tanked the USD against Yuan. The key driver of the tumble is Huawei. As the biggest telecommunication supplier. CFO get arrested can be catastrophic to the operation. Value of renminbi is somewhat relevant to the tele giant in China what sparks the market risk aversion is the time of the news. It is precisely the same time at the Trump-Xi Saturday dinner.
Last Saturday, the negotiation leading by the head of each party in the trade war portrayed to be a success. The USA is agreed to pause the imposition of the new tariff over the Chinese commodities, and China nodded to purchase more agricultural products and respond favourably to the IP theft and other international affairs. Meanwhile, Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huawei Technologies Co, is apprehended in Vancouver in the airport and custody. The arrest is likely linked to violating sanctions against Iran. Beijing promptly reacted with outrage, demanding to free Meng. As the daughter and the theoretical successor of Huawei Empire, Meng plays a significant role for China to be self-sufficient in strategic technologies. The action disappointed most of the Chinese Internet enterprises and witnessed stocks (conceptual stocks) slide. It could be a signal of another round of ‘game’ between US and China. Otherwise, a trade war is not closing to the end. So the Friday night will be newsworthy as the Auction against Meng and NFP will both drive the market.
On the USD side, economic outcomes are disappointing. ADP Employment Change is 179K which is lower than consensus number 195K. The result signalled a less favourable NFP result. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November is increased to 231K. While the Unit Labor Costs rise by 0.9%, all of them are unfavourable compared to the expected levels.&nbsp;
Technically speaking, the volatility of the pair is less now as the price is now steady between the two MA. Bull and bear power both suggest that the market is far less activated and held for the release of NFP tonight. Most of the technical readings are directionless. So the pair possessed a neutral-to-negative short-term outlook. Investors can seek to speculate on the 50% retracement level and 38.2% retracement. The break of each one from low or high can indicate the open of a new space. The medium-term target for the pair is less than 7.

Is huawei the appropriate way in the trade war? Insight of USD/CHN

On the 4h chart, the USD is trading at 1.27115 per Sterling pound. The attempt to pull up the pair is failed at 1.2779 at 1 am. The overall trend for today is descendent. However, the pair will be well protected on 1.27 only if fundamental elements intrude. The likelihood is very high as the Brexit affair is about to burst out. Technical readings and the moving average lines are directionless as well. Bull power indicated that buyers are losing ground at this round of decline. After the release of the NFP from the USA, the investor could proceed.

GBP is unclear

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As demonstrated on the 4h chart, the last two days saw the plummet of the AUD against USD. The renewed price at the time of publication is now 0.7224 around at the time of writing. The price is now well supported above the 0.722 as higher support constructed through November. However, the trend may be extended as negative news from the Trade balance. However, technical readings suggest the pair is going into oversold territory. This Friday is the ADP nonfarm payroll night. It is recommended to take actions after the release. Good NFP will pull down AUD and open the space for 0.72 below.&nbsp;
On the flip side, if the pair can retouch and break the resistance at 0.72773, the bearish trend can be reversed.

AUD expected to extend the bearish period

On the chart of 4h, the renewed price for USD and the offshore yuan is on 6.92172. After the decline of 6.96936 to 6.91. The pair is trading within the range of the 23.6% retracement and 78.6% retracement after the gap created by the speculation of the G20 agreement between the two parties. The buyers are returning and pulling up the price back to 6.9 even though MACD suggest selling. The RSI and bull power all witnessed a reversal into positive territory trend. Technically, the pair has touched the bottom. As long as the price retouched the 23.6% level, the long position is highly recommended.

Take the bottom of USDCHN

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On the 4h chart of USDJPY, the pair is now trading at 113.563 when editing. As the intraday price just broke the 23.6% retracement level of the rally from 112.325 to 114.017 even though the support is overcome which will open the space to go down to 38.2% retracement. Technical readings suggest a neutral-to-bullish outlook for the pair. The confluence of the two lines on MACD can fuel up the pair, and the Bull power is still strongly positive. Resistance is the previous support recast as the resistance at 113.622. The further loss will be on agenda if support on 113.633 is crossed.

Neutral-to-bullish outlook for USDJPY

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Which currency get most fuelled up after the G20? The answer is the Australian dollar. After the weekend, the extensive pull up at the beginning of December enables the pair AUDUSD to open up at 0.73779 during Sydney session. Same stories are told on AUDCAD and AUDNZD. Truce between the USA and China on the trade war dim the tension stacked months long in 2018. US stocks encountered the highest weekly gain in over seven months on the back of speculation the Fed will loosen on the monetary policy after the December rally.
As two of the largest trade partners in the world. The ceasefire agreement on 90-days is the too beautiful to believe for the Oz. Liquidity in the global market can be maintained without further threat from the tariffs charged on the Chinese commodities which will rallied from 10% to 25% at the beginning of 2019. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to cease the fight on the trading by halting the imposition of new tariffs for 90 days and a lasting agreement to eliminate the extra tariffs are under negotiation. In exchange, China has to respond positively to the intellectual property theft and imports more agricultural products from the US.&nbsp;
Even though the deal addressed no essential differences mutually , the US stocks take the market positive news and surged. The S&amp;P 500 had its biggest weekly advance since 2011. Then it would be the excellent opportunity to go long in the highly correlated AUD. However, if no structural progress in the following 90 days. Everything will go back to the worst case.&nbsp;
Little information worthy coming from the Australia but the following week shall be quite busy. Manufacturing PMI will be out this Monday and Reserve bank of Australia will determine the rate change of December. GDP for Q3 will also be out on Wednesday. As the Fed leading the trend of slowing down. RBA will possibly signal the same attitude.
Technically speaking, the pair is in the ascending channel to go upward. 20 SMA is diverting from the 60 SMA with a greater gap. Technical readings suggest a extended bullish trend for the currency. But the short-term new high is very close to the August high which will be a hard-to-cross hurdle. The RSI is going to the overbought territory in the 4H chart. It would be reckless to speculate at this level. If the pair breaks the 0.73829 , It would be a good time to enter. On the flip side, the stop loss should be taken on 0.73438.

The post-G20 week will see expanded AUD 

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As demonstrated on the 4h graph, AUDUSD challenged the November high but failed. The renewed price is now on 0.73147. As the short-term 20 SMA is far above the 23.6% retracement level, the price is somewhat supported. RSI is corrected from the edge of the overbought condition and kept on 65 while MACD saw a positive pattern. The undetermined element is bull power which shows the less long positions on the market. However, there still buying interest outstanding to avoid a turnover. Resistance now is 0.73376 which is the entry level as well. Profit can be taken on 0.73612 or stop the loss on 23.6% retracement 0.72743.

MichaelZz

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

Bearish moment for EUR

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

Data helped GBP to get better result against USD

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

ECB set the stage to end quantitative ease and maintain the current rate

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

Risk aversion drived CHF to appreciate

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

JPY remained skewed to downside

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

Is huawei the appropriate way in the trade war? Insight of USD/CHN

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

GBP is unclear

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

AUD expected to extend the bearish period

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

Take the bottom of USDCHN

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

Neutral-to-bullish outlook for USDJPY

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

The post-G20 week will see expanded AUD

MichaelZz

Dec 01 2020

Supposed to be correction for AUD